Hart vs. Jimenez: Preview and Prediction for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Undercard

On May 2's big Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao pay-per-view, which starts at 9 p.m. ET, fans will get a look at one of Top Rank's best prospects, undefeated super middleweight Jesse Hart. Hart will face fellow unbeaten Mike Jimenez. 

For the price of $100, fans are probably justified in feeling disappointed by the quality of this pay-per-view's undercard. But this one is nearly guaranteed to break sales records, so there's little need for the promoters to throw in extra value. 

And Hart is certainly a rising contender worth watching. Whether Jimenez will be his stiffest competition to date is unclear, but he's a prospect at a similar point in his career. 

Tale of the Tape

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Per BoxRec	Jesse Hart	Mike Jimenez
Record:	16-0, 13 KOs	17-0, 11 KOs
Height:	6'2"	6'1"
Reach:	Unlisted	Unlisted
Weight:	168 lbs	168 lbs
Age:	25	27
Stance:	Orthodox	Orthodox
Hometown:	Philadelphia	Chicago
Rounds:	45	68

The tale of the tape looks pretty similar for both fighters in this bout. Hart is just an inch taller and two years younger. 

Both undefeated fighters represent cities with proud fight traditions. Jimenez has just one more fight but 23 more rounds due to a slightly lower KO percentage. 

Main Storylines

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Jesse Hart has an outstanding boxing pedigree. He grew up in Philadelphia, one of the world's premier boxing cities. His father and trainer is Eugene "Cyclone" Hart, a monster puncher and fringe middleweight contender in the 1970s. 

Hart had an exceptional amateur career. He was a 2011 national champion and reached the finals of the 2012 Olympic Trials. As a professional, he has been busy, knocking out opponents at a high rate. 

The two most experienced opponents he has faced so far are Samuel Miller and Derrick Findley. He knocked out Miller in Round 2 last December and shut out Findley in a six-round fight in January 2014.

Findley is a common opponent between Hart and Mike Jimenez. Jimenez was beaten decisively by Findley in September 2013, getting stopped in the seventh. But the loss was later changed to a no-contest when Findley failed his post-fight drug test. 

Strengths

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Jesse Hart is a skilled and athletic boxer with very good power. He does a nice job of setting up his offense with his jab and doubles up well with the lead hand. He's a big, solid super middleweight. 

Mike Jimenez has a very good frame for a super middleweight and has shown good power in his career. He doesn't have quite the same stellar pedigree as Hart, but he's an experienced prospect from a good gym. 

He's strung together a solid professional resume. 

Weaknesses

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Jesse Hart looks to me like he might rely a bit too much on his physical gifts. He has a tendency to move into range with his hands low, confident that he will get off first and move out of range before his opponent can retaliate. He also tends to move backward in a predictable direction. 

Mike Jimenez tends to throw his punches in singles and doubles, which will make it hard for him to keep up with an athletic worker like Hart.

When he does throw a flurry, he does a lot of what ESPN's Teddy Atlas calls "posing for a photograph," meaning that he remains stationary after throwing his shots rather than moving away from danger. 

Jesse Hart Will Win If...

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Jesse Hart needs to rely on his superior skills and box Mike Jimenez. Jimenez has the power to make things dangerous for Hart if Hart lets himself get drawn into a back-and-forth brawl. 

Hart needs to use smart tactical movement behind his jab and make himself an elusive target for Jimenez. He needs to make Jimenez pay for aggression. 

If Hart can use his jab and movement to establish control over the tempo of the fight, he'll be able to open up offensively by getting off first with his attacks. 

Jimenez is a come-forward fighter who relies on his power. That's an opponent Hart should be able to look good against in this high-profile fight. 

Mike Jimenez Will Win If...

Mike Jimenez certainly has enough power to beat Jesse Hart if he can load up and land with some big punches. To do that, he's going to need to be aggressive yet patient. 

Jimenez should look to cover up when Hart moves in and attacks him then quickly follow Hart as he moves back, roughing him up when he's shifting onto his back foot. 

Hart leaves a little window of vulnerability when he's moving out of range. Jimenez needs to be ready to climb inside that window and turn things ugly. 

Prediction

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

I don't exactly think we can view this fight as a sure thing for Jesse Hart, but Top Rank has probably been strategic in matching him with Mike Jimenez. Jimenez is undefeated with 11 KOs, so he seems like a tough opponent on paper. 

But Jimenez lost nearly every round to Derrick Findley before getting stopped by him, and Findley is a fighter who lost nearly every round to Jesse Hart. It's true that the Findley fight was changed to a no-contest for Jimenez. And it's also true that just because Fighter A beat Fighter B and Fighter B beat Fighter C, it doesn't mean Fighter A automatically beats Fighter C. 

Still, I believe the stat underscores a basic superiority in boxing skill on behalf of Hart. And that difference in skill is going to be decisive in this fight. 

Hart will win eight or nine rounds of this 10-round fight. There's a good chance he scores a late-rounds stoppage. 

Super middleweight is a wide-open division at the moment. Andre Ward is set to return in June against Paul Smith, but that will be at a catchweight of 172 pounds. Carl Froch is still sidelined with an elbow injury. 

The rest of the better fighters at 168 pounds are relative newcomers. So there should be room for Hart to shoulder his way into the conversation by the end of this year.