If you're reading this, you already know all about these teams. So here are some things you might not have thought about:
1) Detroit is the best faceoff team in the NHL, while Pittsburgh has been the worst for years (but has improved slightly of late). Normally, faceoff percentage is overrated—a faceoff is, on average, worth around 1/50 of a goal, so Pittsburgh's poor face-offs probably cost them only about three goals a season. And the teams' faceoff performance is already factored into their scoring records.
But with two strong puck-possession teams, the value of a faceoff might be magnified—let's say to as much as 1/30 goal. If so, the difference between Detroit really creaming Pittsburgh on face offs (say, 35-15) and Pittsburgh holding it close (say, 27-23) could be a swing of 15 face-offs per game, or three goals, if the series goes the distance. That's enough to swing a close series.
2) We can't take the regular season too seriously, since these Penguins are obviously a different animal from the regular season Penguins. But the West wasn't just a little better this year—the inter-league record was something like 83-67. If we take this as representative (of course the sample is pretty small), that means that an average West team is finishing with about 100 points in the East. Think about that.
3) Fleury's had a great run. But he hasn't had to contend with anything remotely resembling Holmstrom's butt. I really don't know how it is possible to tend goal with that thing in front of you. And the rebounds are a problem—for Fleury, not for Holmstrom's butt.
4) Pittsburgh and Detroit have different defensive approaches in their own ends—Pittsburgh packs it in, while Detroit denies time and space. Denial is usually more effective against puck-posession teams.
5) Detroit has the home-ice advantage. This advantage is usually magnified in situations where the teams have little experience playing in each other's buildings.
6) The NHL has decided to give a big schedule break before the series starts. This favors Detroit, with Franzen's "concussion-like symptoms" and older players.
6a) Okay, what are "concussion-like symptoms"? Does this mean that Franzen has all of the symptoms of a concussion, except they don't have evidence of a blow to the head—such as one might receive while playing ice hockey? Are bodies awaiting autopsies are diagnosed with "death-like symptoms"?
No, I'm not going to predict the series. Just sit back and enjoy it.
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4 months ago
I do think that the big break gives Detroit a great chance to rest their players and get ready to take on the young guns of the pens. I think that it gives Franzen a chance to make it back and I think the series will be a great exhibition of hockey.
4 months ago
Detroit fan, huh? I'm not sold on their experience to outwit the talent and drive of the youngsters from Pittsburgh. And an 83-67 record for interleague play isn't as bad as you make it seem...consider the teams in the east who did little against the east either (see Tampa Bay, Atlanta, etc.). Sure the west played better as a whole, but the two best teams are in the Finals. An opportunity for the new generation of hockey player to snatch the torch from the hands of a group who have been carrying it for too long...
from 4 months ago
Actually, I'm a die-hard Penguins fan. If I had anything to say favoring the Pens that everybody else isn't talking about, I would have said it.
- I'm also not sold on the experience factor. (Besides, everybody talks about that so its boring.)
- I don't know how much better the West is than the East, and I don't think anybody else does either. But I don't know of any better way to estimate it than the interleague record. I don't claim that playing agianst better teams makes DET better than PIT, just that evidence arising from what PIT has accomplished should berhaps be devalued in comparison because of the quality of the competition.
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