Should the Miami Heat Re-Sign Goran Dragic to a Max-Level Contract?

With the 2014-15 NBA season in the rearview mirror, the Miami Heat are about to head into an offseason of uncertainty.

It's nearly impossible to say what Miami will or can do to improve this summer. Three of the team's best players—Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng—have 2015 player options, per HoopsHype. Until the Heat know exactly how much cap room they have to work with, it's hard to guess as to what they'll do.

There is, however, one certainty: Miami needs to re-sign Dragic to a max-level deal.

The Heat are slated to offer Dragic something like a five-year, $109 million contract, per the Miami Herald's Joseph Goodman. And from the sound of things, Dragic is eager to stay with the Heat for the foreseeable future.

Even Team President Pat Riley appears confident that Dragic is returning. He recently told the Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman:

"

If he doesn't sign, my a-- is going to be in that [media] seat next year and I'll be writing about it.

"

You can perhaps argue that he shouldn't command that high of a figure. But even so, there's no arguing that Miami needs to do whatever it takes to re-sign him.

The Heat gave up two first-round picks to acquire Dragic at the trade deadline. Team President Pat Riley has always preferred to build teams through free agency rather than the draft. But losing two first-rounders for a half-season rental (and then missing the playoffs, no less) is a ludicrous waste of resources for any team.

Riley isn't going to let Dragic go for free, nor should he. Miami has staked too much on him already. If the Heat later decide that he isn't worth the money they've thrown at him, they can always flip him in a trade. There are plenty of teams that would happily pay $20 million a year for his services.

The more interesting question is whether or not Dragic will prove to be worth the money. His new deal will make him one of the 10 highest-paid players in the league. That sounds like a clear overpay under the current CBA, but it isn't—given the rate the salary cap is expected to rise.

As DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony recently noted, the cap is going to make a massive jump over the next few years.

Obviously, these are just projections, so it remains to be seen where the exact figures will fall. But given the $22 million-plus increase expected between 2015 and 2016, it's likely that many of the five-year max deals signed this summer will end up looking like bargains by the time 2020 rolls around.

And even ignoring the rising cap and the sunk cost of bringing Dragic to Miami in the first place, the Heat may be making a smart gamble in paying their star point guard.

Dragic put up relatively modest numbers in Miami this season. He averaged 16.6 points and 5.3 assists per game on 58.6 percent true shooting, per Basketball-Reference.com. But the Heat aren't paying him for what he's done in the past; they're paying him for what he's going to become—the team's primary ball-handler.

If there was one disappointing aspect to Dragic's time with Miami this season, it was how little he was involved in the offense. Though he had the highest time of possession on the Heat, he posted a usage rate of just 22.2 percent—barely higher than his usage rate with the Phoenix Suns (21.5 percent).

Things only got worse when he shared the court with Wade. When the two were together, he used just 18.5 percent of the team's possessions. Wade used 35.1 percent of the team's possessions despite scoring far less efficiently. When the two shared the court, Wade's true shooting percentage was 49.7 compared to Dragic's 58.2, per NBAwowy!.

For what it's worth, Wade himself has noted that the two still have to work through some kinks. In early March, he told the Palm Beach Post's Jason Lieser:

"

There will be good moments, but it ain’t gonna be as potent as it can be. It’s gonna take a little time. Next year will be better.

"

Wade is 33 years old and can't be expected to carry that kind of offensive load—especially given his injury history. It wouldn't be surprising to see the gap in their usage shrink considerably—or for Dragic to overtake Wade as soon as the end of next year.

Dragic has never been a ball-dominant guard—his career high in usage is 24.5 percent (in 2013-14). He has all the tools to be one of the league's top scorers, however, especially if he gets the chance to play alongside a healthy Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts.

He was phenomenal alongside Channing Frye in Phoenix, and Frye has talked about how dangerous the Bosh-Dragic pairing could be, as Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick noted. Dragic is a smart pick-and-pop passer, and few players are better at faking and driving away from picks to get to the rim. That's when he really kills defenses.

Courtesy of Instagiffer

He's better than just about anyone at the basket. Over 43 percent of his shots came directly at the rim, and he hit 69 percent of those attempts. He should be getting there even more next season when he gets to play alongside shooters.

Dragic also adds another dimension to the Heat offense in the way of transition scoring. Nearly 23 percent of his offense came on the break. He averaged 1.37 points on those possessions, one of the NBA's top marks. Miami could use that.

Head Coach Erik Spoelstra has made it very clear that he intends on playing faster next season, saying, via the Sun Sentinel's Winderman:

"

Pace, speed, quickness . . .  let's go. Players will see that right away in training camp. We have players best fit to play that style.

"

It remains to be seen whether Wade is still up for playing up-tempo basketball every night. But even if he isn't, Spoelstra could stagger Wade's and Dragic's minutes, allowing Miami to attack teams with weird, in-game changes of pace.

One other thing that could boost Dragic's play is the opportunity to log more minutes alongside Hassan Whiteside. The Heat didn't play particularly well with the two on the floor this season, but there's no reason to think they won't be a strong pair moving forward. Dragic has never played with a pick-and-roll threat like Whiteside, and the two could be deadly together.

The Heat need a player who can help Wade now and eventually take the reins from him offensively. They'd be hard-pressed to find someone who can fill that role better than Dragic can. Giving him over $20 million a year may look like an overpay now, but it's a smart bet for the future.

All statistics accurate as of April 21 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com/Stats unless stated otherwise.