Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Chicago Bears' Top 3 Picks
Following three disappointing seasons under general manager Phil Emery, the Chicago Bears decided to revamp their organization this offseason by firing Emery and hiring Ryan Pace to be the team's new general manger.
In order to contend on a yearly basis, Pace will need to do a better job of finding talent in the draft than his predecessor did. Emery drafted two Pro Bowlers in Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long, but the rest of his picks have failed to have much success in the NFL.
After finishing 5-11 last season, the Bears are set to pick seventh overall in this year's draft, and they also hold the rights to the 39th pick and the 71st pick in the second and third rounds.
Pace should be able to find talented players in all three rounds, and here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Bears' top three draft picks.
Round 1 Best-Case Scenario: Leonard Williams, DL, USC
1 of 6The Bears have a lot of needs on both sides of the football, and since they are picking seventh overall, there should be plenty of good players still available when it is their turn to make their first selection.
They could end up drafting one of this year's talented wide receivers or edge-rushers, but if USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams is still available, they will jump at the chance to draft him.
Williams played all over the defensive line during his time at USC, and he would be a perfect fit at the 5-technique defensive end position in Chicago's new 3-4 defense.
He measured in at the NFL Scouting Combine at 6'5" and 302 pounds and ran a 4.97-second 40-yard dash. In three seasons at USC, he registered 218 total tackles, 36.5 tackles for loss, 21 sacks, two interceptions and forced five fumbles.
He has a terrific first step and the ability to get after the quarterback, but he also does a nice job of shedding blockers and attacking against the run. He is still a little raw and can play reckless at times, but he has drawn comparisons to both Richard Seymour (mentioned in the video above by Bleacher Report's Matt Miller) and Kevin Williams.
"You can't over-think this one. It doesn't matter how raw he is because he's got freakish qualities that are rare for men his size," said an NFC director of scouting, according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. "I think he has a chance to be as good as Kevin Williams. That's his comp."
Leonard Williams has the ability to anchor a defensive line for years to come, and he will be a best-case scenario for the Bears if he is still available when they pick seventh overall.
Round 1 Worst-Case Scenario: Shane Ray, Edge-Rusher, Missouri
2 of 6
The Bears have a need at almost every position on the field, so it is hard to say that there will be a worst-case scenario for them in the first round, but if a couple of quarterbacks, wide receivers and edge-rushers are off the board, they may have to settle for someone with question marks like Missouri's Shane Ray.
Ray was a highly productive defensive end last season for the Tigers, registering 65 total tackles, 22.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks, but he relied almost exclusively on his speed to beat blockers and will have to improve his strength in order to have success at the NFL level.
He possesses a quick first step and is a relentless pass-rusher, but he lacks a go-to pass-rushing move. He often gets caught up in traffic when defending the run and was nonexistent at times last season when he went up against strong, athletic offensive tackles.
Ray did not run at the combine back in February, but, according to Gabe DeArmond of PowerMizzou.com, he ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at Missouri's pro day in March.
"In my mind, he's the most explosive guy out of all the edge rushers in this draft. He doesn't have as much girth as you would like—and his weight fluctuated some—but he can get after it," an AFC defensive coach said, according to Jeff Chadiha of ESPN.com.
Ray is an athletic edge-rusher with the ability to develop into a productive player in the NFL, but if the Bears want to add to the position in the draft, they likely would rather see a more well-rounded edge-rusher like Florida's Dante Fowler or Clemson's Vic Beasley be available when they make their pick in the first round.
Round 2 Best-Case Scenario: Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
3 of 6
The Bears added linebacker Mason Foster this offseason on a one-year deal to be one of the team's starting inside linebackers, but the other starting inside linebacker position is still wide-open.
Former second-round pick Jon Bostic has a good shot of landing the other starting inside linebacker spot, but if UCLA's Eric Kendricks falls to the second round, he could end up being a best-case scenario for the Bears with the 39th overall pick.
Kendricks is a terrific downhill defender who does a good job of fighting through blockers to make the tackle. In four seasons for the Bruins, Kendricks registered 480 total tackles, 26 tackles for loss, 10 sacks and five interceptions.
Adam Hoge of WGNPlus.com compared Kendricks to former San Francisco 49ers linebacker Chris Borland, writing:
"Kendricks is a slightly better version of Chris Borland — he’s highly intelligent and instinctual with underrated athleticism and a nose for the football. The ideal size might not be there, but the production is. Some knock Kendricks for being a product of the UCLA scheme, but as I like to say: trust the tape. This kid will rack up tackles on the inside of a 3-4, just like Borland did as a rookie in San Francisco. And, chances are, he won’t retire after one season.
"
He measured in at just 6'0" and 232 pounds at the combine and lacks ideal size for the position, but guys like Borland and London Fletcher have proven in the past that smaller linebackers can still be productive in the NFL.
He could be an option for the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints or New England Patriots at the back end of the first round, but if he is still available for the Bears at No. 39, he has a chance to solidify the inside linebacker position in Chicago's 3-4 defense for years to come.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Round 2 Worst-Case Scenario: Reaching for a Position of Need
4 of 6
Being forced to reach for a player at a position of need, instead of selecting the best player available, would be a worst-case scenario for the Bears in the second round.
Even though the Bears have a plethora of needs both offensively and defensively, the team would be foolish to pass on a talented player at the running back position just because a slew of players at a position of need came off the board ahead of him.
The Bears have one of the best all-around running backs in the game in Matt Forte, but he will turn 30 later this year, and this year's draft is full of talented running backs.
Not only is Forte getting closer to the age of 30, his contract expires at the end of the 2015 season, and the team does not have a proven alternative on the roster to replace him.
If there is a run on safeties or wide receivers, running backs like Indiana's Tevin Coleman, Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah or Boise State's Jay Ajayi could all still be available for the Bears with the 39th pick.
The Bears did select Ka'Deem Carey in the fourth round of last year's draft, but he was given limited opportunities last season and is still an unknown. Pace signed Jacquizz Rodgers to a one-year deal this offseason, but he has been nothing more than a situational running back throughout his career.
Coleman, Abdullah and Ajayi will all likely go somewhere in the second round, and even though Pace may want to address a handful of other positions, he should not reach for a safety, cornerback or wide receiver with the 39th overall pick if there was a run at those positions earlier in the draft.
Round 3 Best-Case Scenario: Damarious Randall, FS, Arizona State
5 of 6
The Bears added veteran safety Antrel Rolle in free agency earlier this offseason, but the team still has a major need at the position.
This year's safety crop lacks much talent behind Alabama's Landon Collins, but Arizona State's Damarious Randall has been quietly climbing up draft boards this offseason.
"In my talks with NFL teams right now, no player getting more 'buzz' than safety Damarious Randall," Bleacher Report's Matt Miller tweeted earlier this month.
In Miller's latest mock draft, he has Randall going to the Indianapolis Colts in the first round, but he does not have him in his top 50 players list.
Randall could possibly go as early as the first round, but it is more likely he ends up being a late second-round pick or early third-round pick. If he is still available in the third round at No. 71, he will be a best-case scenario for the Bears.
Randall ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at the combine and measured in at 5'11" and 196 pounds. In two seasons as a starter for Arizona State, Randall registered 177 total tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, one sack and six interceptions.
He is a rangy, athletic safety with the ability to roam from sideline to sideline, and he is not afraid to step up and stop the run. He is a bit small for the position, but he proved he can match up with taller receivers in the passing game.
Despite all of the positives to his game, he does have weaknesses, and Zierlein outlined some of them in his scouting report, writing:
"Small for safety position. Has box characteristics but lacking box size. Instincts as a free safety are average. Could be forced to play cornerback. Needs technique work in coverage. Must learn line-of-scrimmage skills and work on coordinating feet and hips. Allows wideouts to eat up cushion. Desire to attack leads to false steps against play-action. Fails to play with proper depth at times. Gets a little loose with technique as a tackler at times, causing him to miss.
"
Randall's size and technique may force him all the way to the third round, but if he is still available for the Bears, he could end up developing behind Rolle and eventually take over a starting position in the near future.
Round 3 Worst-Case Scenario: Not Being Able to Trade Back for Additional Picks
6 of 6
For a team with so many needs on both sides of the football, it is hard to think of a worst-case scenario for the Bears in the third round. Most teams want to get immediate production out of their first two picks, but they understand it may take those players selected in the mid- to late rounds more time to develop.
A potential worst-case scenario for the Bears in the third round would be trying to trade back to pick up additional picks and being unable to find a willing trade partner. The team has a lot of needs, and not all of them will be able to be filled in free agency, meaning Pace could look to trade out of the 71st pick in order to acquire one or two additional picks.
It is difficult to find starters in the middle rounds, but the Bears could potentially find some special teams contributors later in the draft, but only if they are able to trade back.
Not being able to trade out of the 71st pick would not drastically alter Chicago's draft plans, but if Pace wants to gather additional picks, it could end up being a worst-case scenario for the Bears in the third round if he is unable to make a deal.
Statistical information courtesy of Sports-Reference.com. Combine numbers and measurables courtesy of NFL.com.
Matt Eurich is a Chicago Bears Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
