NHL West: Why Every Team Will (and Won't) Make the Playoffs

James Sheehy by Contributor Written on August 24, 2009
GLENDALE, AZ - APRIL 07:  (L-R) Carlo Colaiacovo #28, Dan Hinote #13 and Brad Winchester #15 of the St. Louis Blues lean in during a face off against the Phoenix Coyotes in the NHL game at Jobing.com Arena on April 7, 2009 in Glendale, Arizona.  The Blues defeated the Coyotes 5-1. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Central

 

Chicago

Why They Will: Well, Chicago is officially back in the Windy City.  Last year, the immense amount of young talent the Blackhawks stockpiled finally came together and the sight was something to behold.  The Hawks finished third overall in the conference (though seeded fourth due to division winners), nipping at the heels of the Central Division powerhouse Detroit Red Wings.  This year, that order might be reversed.

In the offseason, the Hawks stole coveted sniper Marian Hossa away from their rivals, which will make an already potent offense (264 GF, tied for fourth overall) even more dangerous.

Another key addition is defensive-minded John Madden, who will replace Samuel Pahlsson on the third line.  Besides his shutdown abilities, Madden will bring the veteran leadership of which this team is in short supply. 

The defense is good to say the least, and nobody really gives them enough credit.  Brian Campbell, Cam Barker, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook combine to make a top four any team would be jealous of.  They are young, fast, and incredibly effective (their 216 GA was the 5th lowest in the league).

Led by super-talented youngsters Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, this team is better than last year's version that made it to the Western Finals.  They'll be good enough to get there again, and this time leave with a Stanley Cup berth.

Why They Won't: Two key cogs in last year's success were the outstanding play of Martin Havlat and Nikolai Khabibulin. Havlat led the team in points and was as clutch a player as the team could ask for.  Khabibulin returned to his Tampa Bay form, putting up an impressive .919 save percentage.  Both are now gone.

While in theory Hossa replaces Havlat, until we see him in action with the team, it remains unproven whether he will be as effective in this offense.  Additionally, Cristobal Huet will have to take over the reins as the No. 1 goaltender, something he was unable to do last year.  If he can't meet expectations, untested Antti Niemi or Corey Crawford will have to fill in.

Too many offseason distractions (the RFA debacle, firing of Dave Tallon, Patrick Kane's criminal charges) and question marks in net will be difficult for this young team to overcome. 

 

Columbus

Why They Will: If I'm picking a player to build a team around, Rick Nash is near the top of my list.  How many 6'4" 215-lb. players can skate and stick-handle like this guy can?  He just put up a career high in points with 79, he's become a solid two-way player, and he's just entering his prime at the young age of 25.

Seriously, he alone should be reason enough why Columbus will make it back to playoffs.

On top of Nash, the Blue Jackets have last year's Calder trophy winner Steve Mason tending the net.  After posting an absurd 10 shutouts in his rookie year, Mason will look to build on his playoff experience and confirm that he is one of the best young goalies in the league.

By the end of this season, fans outside Columbus are going to know just how good youngsters Jakub Voracek and Derrick Brassard really are.

The Blue Jackets have improved each of the last three seasons, and that trend will continue as Columbus reaches the playoffs for the second time.

Why They Won't: This team does not have the depth needed to emerge from a tough division.  Nash and Mason are nice, but they need more to remain in the top eight. 

Kristian Huselius (56 points) and RJ Umberger (46 points) were second and third in team scoring.  That's not going to get it done two years in a row. 

Mason, while terrific last year, is still very young and it's rare to have a young goalie continue on without a hiccup in their development.  The problem is, the Jackets need Mason at his best.  If he even remotely regresses, this team does not have the talent to stay afloat. 

Columbus scored 226 goals and had a goal differential of -4, ranking them 15th in both categories among playoff teams.  This team snuck in to the playoffs thanks to tremendous play from their rookie goaltender, but I wouldn't bet on that happening twice. 

 

Detroit

Why They Will: Many people are saying this is the season that Detroit finally begins to fall, citing their age and personnel losses this offseason.  Well, the team's average age is 30.  That doesn't exactly scream retirement home escapees.

To anybody that watched Detroit play last season, run away with the scoring race (295 goals) and dominate possession, they certainly weren't watching a team that was losing a step.

Osgood isn't good enough?  Well he only posted a .926 save percentage in the playoffs.

Lidstrom is too old?  Tell that to his 59 points, his +31, and his 24:49 ATOI.

Everyone is talking about the players lost.  Now all they have is Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, Daniel Cleary, Brian Rafalski, Brad Stuart, Jonathan Ericsson and Niklas Kronwall. And oh yeah, Todd Bertuzzi, Ville Leino, Darren Helm, Justin Abdelkader, and Patrick Eaves probably won't help out either.

Yeah, with a roster like this, who wouldn't think they were in trouble?

Why They Won't: Losing Marian Hossa is a huge loss.  Say what you will, but 40-goal scorers who are sound defensively don't grow on trees. 

While there is no doubt Osgood always steps it up in the playoffs, if he continues to be so-so in the regular season, this team will have to continue to light it up to stay competitive.

An uncommonly discussed stat from last year, Detroit had the fourth worst GA among playoff teams with 244 (Washington had 245, Montreal had 247, and Calgary had 248). Offense can come and go, but their defense will have to improve if they plan on holding off the rest of the division.

 

Nashville

Why They Will: If there are two things that make a playoff team, it's a hot goalie and a great coach.  The Predators are blessed to have both.

Barry Trotz can make any team competitive.  He should be a perennial Jack Adams finalist.  Despite what talent he is given, you know his team is going to be difficult to play against.

Pekka Rinne, the OTHER rookie goalie that tore up the league last year, will be back to prove that his Calder nomination slight was a mistake. And unfortunately for other teams, he has the talent to do just that.  It's rare when a goalie posts a .917 SP with seven shutouts and gets as little press as this guy got.  You can be sure by the end of this season that won't happen again. 

Jason Arnott leads a balanced though unspectacular forward corps. But it's at the other end of the ice that Nashville intimidates.  Shea Weber and Ryan Suter make up one of the best top pairings in the league, and I'd be surprised if Weber isn't in the Norris discussion this season. 

Why They Won't: Nashville thought they had their starting goalie in Tomas Vokoun, and then he was supplanted by Chris Mason, who in turn was overtaken by Dan Ellis, who lost his job to Pekke Rinne.  That's an uncomfortable trend. 

Even if that doesn't continue, the Preds need more scoring.  213 goals isn't going to get you a ticket to the postseason, especially when you allow 233 goals. 

Barry Trotz is a great coach, but he isn't a miracle worker.  The west is stacked, and the central is probably its best division.  Nashville simply doesn't have the horses to compete.

 

St. Louis

Why They Will: When people talk about teams with exciting youth, the Blues are somehow always overlooked.

David Backes, David Perron, Patrick Berglund, TJ Oshie, and Erik Johnson are all 25 or younger, and will continue to improve and become the core of this team.  And honestly, besides maybe Chicago or Pittsburgh, I can't think of a young core I'd rather have than this one.

Everybody expected last season to be a rebuilding year for the Blues, but they jumped ahead of schedule and made the playoffs thanks to a scorching record in the second half.  And that was with major injuries to Andy McDonald and Paul Kariya only playing a combined 57 games, and Erik Johnson missing the whole season. 

Is there really any possibility that those player back in the lineup somehow makes the team worse?  Let me answer that for you.  No, there isn't. 

The Blues will once again be playing extra games this year.  I love this team, I love this youth, and I love this third jersey.

Why They Won't: If hockey has taught us anything, it's that the young underdog team that beats the odds and makes the playoffs doesn't always do so next season.  We often forget that there was a reason that they were underdogs: They weren't supposed to beat the odds. 

This is a very young team.  Besides Kariya, McDonald, Brad Boyes, and Eric Brewer, the best players are still learning the game.  And you can always expect some growing pains. 

It remains to be seen whether Johnson and Kariya can return to form, and if they don't, the Blues may be in trouble. 

Despite basically being shot out of a cannon to end the season, the Blues still ended up allowing as many goals as they scored (233).  If they start the season like they did last year, it will be difficult to replicate last season's second half.

I hope all the best for Chris Mason, but he seems to be a good-year bad-year player.  He alternates between steps forward and backward.  Last year was a step forward, so you can guess what this year will probably be.  Additionally, he always seems to play better trying to take over the No. 1 position then when he actually has it.

I'm not saying the Blues don't have a chance at consecutive postseasons, but Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, and the odds are standing in the way.

 

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written on August 24, 2009 Preview/Prediction

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