Billy Wagner not likely to be traded.

Phil HoopsCorrespondent IAugust 24, 2009

NEW YORK - AUGUST 20:  Billy Wagner #13 of the New York Mets walks back to the dugout after the final out of the eighth inning against the Atlanta Braves on August 20, 2009 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

On ESPN’s Sports Center, MLB analyst Buster Olney discussed the potential trade between the Mets and the Red Sox involving reliever Billy Wagner.

In his appearance, Olney stated that the chances of a deal happening are below 50 percent.

Currently, there are numerous factors that would support Olney’s claim.

One is that there are some concerns regarding the health of Wagner’s surgically repaired shoulder.

Prior to yesterday afternoon’s game, Wagner told reporters that he was going to pitch at some point in that game. However, despite warming up in the bullpen, he never entered. This prompted some concerns over whether Wagner is struggling to get warm prior to entering the game.

Mets manager, Jerry Manuel, stated today that the reason Wagner didn’t pitch was because he was holding him out of the game until the Mets went ahead (which they never did).

Today, Wagner appeared healthy, and pitched a scoreless inning while recording two strike outs.

The other two factors that could be a potential deal breaker are terms that Wagner’s agent revealed this morning. Terms that have to be met in order for Billy to waive his full no-trade clause.

The first of these terms is that the Red Sox would have to agree that Wagner’s 2010 option would not be picked up following this season. The other is that the Red Sox would not be allowed to offer him arbitration, because Wagner wouldn’t want the loss of two high draft picks (due to his Type-A free agent status) to scare away teams interested in signing him.

My guess is that the Mets will not be able to come to a deal with Boston, and that Wagner will stay on the rest of the season. The team will then offer him arbitration in the off-season, which it’d be pretty safe to say, he'd decline.

This would then result in the Mets getting two top draft picks in next year’s draft, as long as Wagner signs with another team.

In other words, this is a rare instance where it is a win-win scenario for the Mets.