Why Emmanuel Mudiay Is a Legitimate Threat for No. 1 Pick in the 2015 NBA Draft

While the country is fixated on the top 2015 NBA draft prospects in the NCAA Final Four, there's a dark horse who could still upstage them for the No. 1 pick in June.

The Duke Blue Devils' Jahlil Okafor and the Kentucky Wildcats' Karl-Anthony Towns have been key pillars for their teams' deep runs through the tourney. They each deserve all the top-dog recognition they're getting, and the Ohio State Buckeyes' D'Angelo Russell is a worthy contender in the conversation as well.

But sleeping on 6'5" point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is a bad idea.

The dynamic guard had signed with SMU in 2014 but opted to go pro in China, telling SI.com (h/t ESPN.com) that he wanted to provide for his mother.

He's as electrifying a player as you'll find in this draft. It's difficult to translate his exploits for the Guangdong Southern Tigers to the NBA, but he's flashed some fascinating potential.

His ceiling could ultimately be higher than anyone else's in this draft.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Elite Playmaking

It all starts with his playmaking prowess off the bounce. Mudiay has a devastating ability to break down opponents with his shiftiness and agility, and he accelerates past them like few guards can. His ball-handling repertoire has all the makings of a top-tier floor general.

I wouldn't label his physical tools in the Russell Westbrook/John Wall category—that's just not fair—but he's in the vicinity. Mudiay can blow by the first line of defense and elevate above the helpers with his springboard leaping and 6'8 ½" wingspan.

Aside from his eye-popping knack for getting to the bucket, he's a promising floor general.

Before we dive into his passing brilliance, it should be noted that he still makes teenage mistakes. He often forces plays or gets sloppy with the ball, resulting in 4.1 turnovers per 40 minutes in China.

However, the playmaking trade-off and his long-term potential are more than worth it.

Mudiay played just 12 games this season, as he missed three months due to an ankle injury. But in that small sample size, he carved up the CBA competition.

He averaged 7.5 assists per 40 minutes in China, including a robust helping of drive-and-dish plays and pick-and-roll orchestration. His penchant for manipulating foes off screens was particularly striking.

Again, the stats and results in China shouldn't be gawked at; rather, it's Mudiay's potential that's most impressive.

Mike Schmitz of Draft Express noted that the youngster "can make every pass out of the pick-and-roll" and that he "has elite feel for his age. [Mudiay] hits the big with pocket passes/lobs, uses hook passes, probes and finds the open man."

He's even more treacherous in transition and unsettled situations, where he pushes the ball aggressively. If he doesn't get all the way to the rim, he usually draws multiple defenders and finds an open teammate for a drop-off or lob.

It's rare to find a 19-year-old with his blend of physical attributes and facilitating skills. That special mix is what makes him a threat to drop 20-plus points and 10 assists on any given night. 

Running the offense for a professional team in China helped him prepare for the NBA in ways that college couldn't have, as the CBA uses a 24-second shot clock and includes rosters with experienced pros.

"Will Bynum, Jeff Adrien, Stephon Marbury, Al Harrington, Willie Warren, all of the players I was playing against told me what to expect in the league," Mudiay told Evan Daniels of Scout.com. "They’ve been there and played there. I played against a lot of NBA players and it got the best out of me."

Scoring Prowess

Mudiay has a good chance to become a versatile bucket-getter in the Association. In addition to his acrobatic plays around the hoop, he's adept at creating and making his own shots off the bounce or within the flow of the offense.

Outside shooting is his weakest offensive skill right now, but there's reason for optimism. He converted just 34 percent of his triples and 57 percent of his free throws in China, but he sprinkled in some nice mid-range pull-ups, and his long-range accuracy improved during his last couple of games.

After returning from his ankle injury, Mudiay went 4-of-8 from distance in his final two games. His shooting form is a little slow and loose, but it's certainly not broken. It's a fairly fluid delivery; he just needs to streamline his footwork and make the motion more uniform.

ESPN.com's Fran Fraschilla noted another factor that makes Mudiay multidimensional: "Because of his size, Mudiay loves to post up smaller guards. This will be an added bonus for a creative NBA coach."

If he irons out his shot and becomes a dependable threat behind the arc, Mudiay might average 20 or more points per game in his prime. His points-to-assists ratio will depend on his team's need for each, but he could realistically post anywhere from 17 to 23 points and five to eight assists per contest.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive Potential

On the defensive side, Mudiay didn't stand out as a prolific performer in China, but he showed some encouraging traits.

His size and lateral quickness helped him wall off opposing playmakers when he was dialed in, and he showed stretches of disruptive play. He had six multisteal games and registered two steals per 40 minutes.

He's displayed some lapses in discipline and fundamentals, but there's nothing to suggest that he won't be an above-average stopper once he sharpens his craft. Mudiay will be able to corral most point guards in the NBA, and his length will allow his coach to put him on shooting guards, too.

SMU coach Larry Brown said that if Mudiay had played for the Mustangs this year, he'd be a college star and the program would be a title contender:

"If we had him right now, we'd be ranked one, two or three in the country," Brown told ESPN.com's Chad Ford. "And along with Russell and Okafor, he'd be the biggest name in college basketball right now. He'd have a brand right now."

Draft Outlook

How does all of this stack up against the other contenders for No. 1 overall? What's the case for Mudiay over these studs?

Obviously, he's a different type of player than Okafor and Towns—they're both post men who can anchor the frontcourt and control the paint. If you're looking for overall playmaking potential and game-changing athleticism on both ends of the floor, however, Mudiay might be your guy.

If a team like the New York Knicks or Philadelphia 76ers wins the lottery, it will strongly consider him because he can ignite the team's offense and dynamically transform the backcourt.

	Team	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3FG%
Jahlil Okafor	Duke	23.1	11.5	1.8	.668	N/A
Karl Towns	Kentucky	19.5	12.7	2.2	.563	N/A
D'Angelo Russell	Ohio State	22.7	6.7	5.9	.449	.411
Emmanuel Mudiay	Guangdong (China)	22.9	7.9	7.5	.478	.342

As for the decision between Mudiay and Russell, it could come down to Mudiay's shooting. If he can show noticeable improvement and signs of continual development, he should emerge ahead of Russell in the predraft assessments.

He's a superior athlete to Russell, and B/R's Jonathan Wasserman indicated that if Mudiay could shoot like Russell, "this wouldn't even be a debate."

He may never match Russell's prolific accuracy, but the CBA star could edge out the Ohio State freshman if his shot becomes dependable.

"If you were building a point guard in a lab, you'd want him to look like Mudiay," Wasserman added.

The No. 1 pick in June's draft will likely come down to the lucky team's needs and preferences, since there's no clear-cut top dog. In that case, Mudiay will have a decent chance of stealing the spotlight.

As great as the point guard crop is in the NBA, elite ones don't grow on trees. That's what Mudiay can become: an uncontainable weapon who brings incalculable value to the squad every night.

When a playmaking gem like that comes along, you have to take a hard look and consider him.

Daniel O'Brien covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report.

Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR.