Tim Donaghy Fallout: How Did His Bets Do?

NBA ref Tim Donaghy bet on the games he officiated, but numbers suggest he didn't stop there.

Las Vegas, Nevada (5/18/08) - As further information is released on the Tim Donaghy sports gambling scandal, the more incriminating the facts become. Asst. U.S. Attorney Jeffrey Goldberg said in a letter filed Friday in Brooklyn Federal Court that former NBA referee Donaghy bet on about 14 games that he officiated during the 2006-07 season.

Now here's an eye-popping fact: The first 15 games of the 2006-07 refereed by Tim Donaghy that had  significant enough betting to move the point spread by 1.5 points or more were PERFECT against Vegas - meaning that the big money gamblers won a 15 of 15 times on his games. The odds of that happening are 32,768 to 1.

Tim Donaghy's officiating-style statistically changed during the 2005-06 and '06-07 seasons. During the two years before (i.e., '03-04 and '04-05) he called fewer fouls than the typical NBA referee (his games scoring more than Las Vegas expected 44 percent of the time). During his last two seasons he called more fouls than average (his games scoring more than Las Vegas expected 57 percent of the time).

The odds of this change happening randomly are 19-to-1.

Now consider what must be believed in order to conclude that Tim Donaghy did not fix the games that he both officiated and bet on:

1) First, that a person troubled enough to provide inside information to criminals was able to referee games in which he had a financial interest in the outcome without any bias.

2) We also must believe that information alone allowed big bettors to beat Las Vegas 15 straight times.

3) And finally, we must believe that Donaghy becoming a much more active referee his final two years is a mere coincidence, rather than evidence of an effort to increase his influence on games.

Keep in mind that a single call can affect the outcome of a pro basketball game. During the '06-07 season alone, 13 games refereed by Tim Donaghy fell within A SINGLE POINT of the Las Vegas betting line. In his final two seasons as a referee, the winner of 14 NBA games refereed by Donaghy was decided by two points or less.

Over 50 BILLION dollars is gambled on the NBA each season. If not a single call was affected by Donaghy's bets, then we have the whole story. But if calls were affected, the true story is one of game-fixing, and thus much bigger.

My reporting on this matter from sports information site Pregame.com has been widely reported in the national media, but no one seems able to answer why we are not getting the answers about what really happened.

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