NBA ref Tim Donaghy bet on the games he officiated, but numbers suggest he didn't stop there.
Las Vegas, Nevada (5/18/08) - As further information is released on the Tim Donaghy sports gambling scandal, the more incriminating the facts become. Asst. U.S. Attorney Jeffrey Goldberg said in a letter filed Friday in Brooklyn Federal Court that former NBA referee Donaghy bet on about 14 games that he officiated during the 2006-07 season.
Now here's an eye-popping fact: The first 15 games of the 2006-07 refereed by Tim Donaghy that had significant enough betting to move the point spread by 1.5 points or more were PERFECT against Vegas - meaning that the big money gamblers won a 15 of 15 times on his games. The odds of that happening are 32,768 to 1.
Tim Donaghy's officiating-style statistically changed during the 2005-06 and '06-07 seasons. During the two years before (i.e., '03-04 and '04-05) he called fewer fouls than the typical NBA referee (his games scoring more than Las Vegas expected 44 percent of the time). During his last two seasons he called
- B/R Ticket Guide
The odds of this change happening randomly are 19-to-1.
Now consider what must be believed in order to conclude that Tim Donaghy did not fix the games that he both officiated and bet on:
1) First, that a person troubled enough to provide inside information to criminals was able to referee games in which he had a financial interest in the outcome without any bias.
2) We also must believe that information alone allowed big bettors to beat Las Vegas 15 straight times.
3) And finally, we must believe that Donaghy becoming a much more active referee his final two years is a mere coincidence, rather than evidence of an effort to increase his influence on games.
Keep in mind that a single call can affect the outcome of a pro basketball game. During the '06-07 season alone, 13 games refereed by Tim Donaghy fell within A SINGLE POINT of the Las Vegas betting line. In his final two seasons as a referee, the winner of 14 NBA games refereed by Donaghy was decided by two points or less.
Over 50 BILLION dollars is gambled on the NBA each season. If not a single call was affected by Donaghy's bets, then we have the whole story. But if calls were affected, the true story is one of game-fixing, and thus much bigger.
My reporting on this matter from sports information site Pregame.com has been widely reported in the national media, but no one seems able to answer why we are not getting the answers about what really happened.
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6 months ago
This article is right on-point. That's quality writing.
6 months ago
Perhaps the officiating crew of the recent Boston - Cleveland series also bet on their games. They tried their best to help Cleveland win that series. I'm glad they failed. The NBA needs to take a close look at those game films and discipline those referees for a lopsided performance.
6 months ago
Damn shame about Donaghy. I really hope there isn't much of that going on
6 months ago
quality article, should get more reads.
6 months ago
Great Job..!!
I hope this to be an isolated case.....
6 months ago
great article - David Stern did a masterful job of sweeping this under the rug a year ago, and no one dares question him. your average reporter is probably a little intimidated by Stern and do you think anyone at ESPN would want to look into this? they televise NBA games, why would they want to report on something that might shine a dark light on the sport? a ref betting on over 100 games - this is a major deal, and i absolutely do no believe no other officials were involved - whether knowingly or not, i cant imagine donaghy wasnt getting all the information he could from other officials he knew to help his betting.
6 months ago
awesome article. I'm glad someone finally broke this down. Why does everyone focus are something as B.S. as Spygate, but let this fiasco slip through the cracks?
6 months ago
While it's wrong what he did, he wasn't changing the outcomes of games or doing it in Game 7's. He was fixing games like the Bobcats losing to the Hawks by 11 in December instead of 8. I agree he's a low-life and should probably do jail time, but this article has the idea that he was changing the outcomes of games, which he wasn't.
6 months ago
Good article. Tim Donaghy is an idiot and he needs to get some jail time to think about his stupid actions. Not 20 years like the maximum, but time to figure out that he's a moron. David Stern did a great job of making sure that nobody dare dig up the weeds of this story. Now only if Roger Goodell went to the same commissioner classes that Stern went to lol...
6 months ago
To be scientific, you have to look at a sample of the outcomes of non-Donaghy ref games as well.
You wrote: " 13 games refereed by Tim Donaghy fell within A SINGLE POINT of the Las Vegas betting line." Let's think about that. If Vegas doesn't know about Donaghy when they set their lines, and the score was close to that, doesn't that mean that Donaghy didn't affect the natural outcome of the game?
In other words, doesn't that mean you would expect Donaghy games to deviate from the betting line, because he's changing the expected outcome?
I'm not biased for either side, I'm just saying that you have to look at both sides, and see if there is a difference. You also have to see how many refs are above and below the average on foul calls. Is Dongahy extreme? Because you know, someone has to be off the average.
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