NBA Draft Notebook: Top Prospect Matchups to Watch in the Sweet 16
The 2015 NCAA tournament's Sweet 16 is loaded with scouting opportunities and matchups between some of the top NBA draft prospects.
This could ultimately be the last chance for general managers to evaluate possible targets in a live-game setting. And for the most part, we'll be looking at first-time matchups we didn't get to see during the regular season.
For the following prospects and their draft stock, a strong or weak performance could potentially tip the scales in either direction. These are the top matchups scouts will likely be focused on in the next round of NCAA tournament games.
Duke's Jahlil Okafor versus Utah's Jakob Poeltl
No game should draw more interest from NBA scouting departments than Utah-Duke. It features five potential first-round prospects, as well as the marquee matchup in the middle: Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor versus Utah freshman Jakob Poeltl.
| Okafor | 21-of-27 | 23.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| Poeltl | 12-of-13 | 15.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 |
Through two tourney games, nobody has been able to challenge Okafor, who's just too strong, nimble and skilled for college frontcourts. He went for 21 points in 21 minutes against Robert Morris on Friday before dropping 26 points on 12 made shots against San Diego State on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Poeltl had a solid day of his own in Utah's opener against Stephen F. Austin, finishing with 18 points, eight rebounds and five blocks in a game he controlled.
Poeltl could ultimately be Okafor's toughest test of the year, given the Austrian's physical presence inside as a finisher, rebounder and shot-blocker.
On the season, they've each put up fairly similar numbers in terms of percentages, although Poeltl's block percentage is nearly twice as high. Despite having played 265 fewer minutes, Poeltl has blocked 11 more shots:
| Okafor | 67.7 | 15.4 | 18.5 | 17.0 | 4.5 |
| Poeltl | 69.1 | 15.9 | 20.1 | 18.2 | 8.5 |
Other than how they handle each other under the boards, the two major things to watch for will be Okafor's effectiveness against Poeltl in the post and whether Utah can exploit the Duke big man's vulnerability defending pick-and-rolls.
Okafor's Post Game versus Poeltl's Post Defense
Okafor made San Diego State's front line look silly on Sunday. He was able to create high-percentage shot after high-percentage shot. Only the Aztecs didn't have a 7-footer like Poeltl, whose blend of size, athleticism and instincts is worthy of lottery consideration.
Poeltl ultimately represents the closest thing to an NBA defender Okafor has faced all season.
Will Okafor be able to effortlessly score in the post the way he usually does? Or can Poeltl hold his ground and keep Okafor from separating into easy looks around the hoop?
The results could factor into where each prospect ends up being taken this June. Okafor is looking to win back those who've jumped ship to Kentucky freshman Karl-Anthony Towns' bandwagon. And Poeltl is trying to show he's more than just a long-term hit-or-miss project.
Utah's Pick-and-Roll Offense against Okafor
One of the few knocks on Okafor has been his lousy pick-and-roll defense. He just isn't very quick to react, and it's led to teams pulling him away from the basket and mixing him into ball-screen situations.
And Utah's Delon Wright just happens to be one of the better ball-screen point guards in the country. His roll-man: Poeltl.
Poeltl is agile for a center. And though not particularly skilled, he has terrific instincts as a catch-and-finisher, with the ability to improvise in traffic and score on the move.
Chances are scouts will get to see Okafor make a handful of pick-and-roll reads defensively, assuming Utah plays to its strengths and targets the Duke center's glaring weakness.
Utah's Delon Wright vs. Duke's Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones
| Wright | 4-of-14 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0-of-2 | 2.0 |
| Winslow | 8-of-14 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2-of-4 | 2.0 |
| Jones | 7-of-16 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 2-of-6 | 2.0 |
Scouts will likely get to see the senior Wright go up against a couple of different defenders. Given his big size for a ball-handler (6'5") and Duke's struggles securing the perimeter, it wouldn't be surprising if Wright drew Duke freshman wing Justise Winslow (6'6") throughout the game.
Though it was Okafor who lit up the scoreboard, Winslow's motor and energy ultimately set the tone in Duke's third-round win over San Diego State.
We saw everything from chase-down blocks and off-ball steals to defensive rebounds taken coast-to-coast, where Winslow is as good as anyone in transition.
Winslow has even dished out 13 assists through his first two games.
He's playing the best ball of his freshman year, and while it's helped propel Duke into the Sweet 16 after two dominant wins, his case as a top-10 pick has never looked stronger.
Meanwhile, Wright hasn't been his usual sharp self. He's turned the ball over nine times while shooting 28.7 percent over Utah's first two games.
However, he'll be going up against a backcourt that has trouble containing dribble penetration. Wright isn't the most explosive guard, but his ability to change speed and direction with the hesitation dribble makes him tough to stay in front of.
For the freshman Jones, this game will also be a big opportunity to make a statement against a defense that ranks No. 7 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com.
It could certainly reflect favorably toward Jones' stock if he were to outplay Wright. The two will likely be competing for draft position somewhere in the mid- to late first round, with both offering backup point guard potential.
As distributors, they each rank in the nation's top 25 in pure point rating, per RealGM.com, which measures assists to turnovers relative to each other.
They're excellent passers and setup men who value the ball and get teammates involved:
| Wright | 5.2 | 1.9 | 4.69 |
| Jones | 5.8 | 2.0 | 5.38 |
But Wright is a lot more comfortable finishing plays inside the arc, thanks to his size, body control and touch around the basket. On the other hand, Jones is more threatening on the perimeter, where he can spot up from deep off the ball and knock down pull-ups before traffic in the mid-range.
| Wright | 65.8 | 56.5 | 26 | 36.1 |
| Jones | 53.1 | 44.0 | 43 | 38.1 |
Teams looking for backcourt depth could be choosing between Wright and Jones come June. If one of them shows up the other on Friday, it might be a potential needle-mover for decision-makers.
UCLA's Kevon Looney versus Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis
| Looney | 8-of-18 | 8.0 | 10.5 |
| Sabonis | 9-of-14 | 12.5 | 10 |
| Looney | 36 | 6-of-10 | 14 | 8 |
| Sabonis | 21 | 4-of-5 | 10 | 6 |
Despite being freshmen in different conferences, this won't be the first time Looney faces off against Sabonis. Gonzaga took care of UCLA 87-74 back on December 13, and both players were fairly active throughout.
Looney actually hit a number of jumpers that game, including a three, a step-back and a rise-and-fire shot out of the post.
His perimeter ball skills are what ultimately drives his NBA mismatch potential. At 6'9", he has some promising outside touch (22-of-51 from downtown on the year), as well as the ability to put the ball on the floor.
Sabonis, 6'10", is more of an interior specialist whose game is predicated on athleticism and energy around the basket. He's shooting 67.5 percent from the floor, a reflection of his shot selection and knack for picking up easy buckets.
But he's also sporting the fourth-best rebounding percentage of any freshman in the country. It will be fun to see him go after loose balls against Looney, a putback machine (48 putbacks, per Hoop-Math) on the offensive glass.
At 231 pounds, Sabonis ultimately has an inch and some extra strength on Looney. Assuming 288-pound Gonzaga center Przemek Karnowski matches up with UCLA's 260-pounder Tony Parker, Sabonis and Looney could end up seeing a lot of each other in the Sweet 16.
It's tough to say whether either will declare this June, but both will likely receive top-20 looks whenever they make the jump. Considering Sabonis hasn't faced many NBA-caliber big men over in the West Coast Conference, this could be a real opportunity for him to win over those who've been hesitant to buy in.
Notre Dame's Jerian Grant versus Wichita State's Ron Baker
| Grant | 12-of-24 | 16.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1-of-6 |
| Baker | 8-of-23 | 13.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2-of-10 |
Two veteran combo guards and the leaders of their respective teams, Grant versus Baker should make for a heck of a Sweet 16 backcourt matchup.
Grant, a senior, is coming off a sensational year in which he's catapulted himself into the lottery conversation. While leading Notre Dame to a No. 3 seed, he's averaged 16.8 points, 6.6 assists (No. 8 in the country) and just 2.2 turnovers per game. Grant's pure point rating ranks No. 10 in the country.
He's emerged as a dangerous, yet under-control, playmaker, both off ball screens and in the drive-and-dish game.
Grant's one-on-one scoring attack has also been on display. Over the past week, he's hit a number of pretty pull-ups and step-backs in the mid-range. And with less than a minute to go in overtime against Butler Saturday night and the Irish up by three, Grant took his man off the bounce and finished a tough running layup with his left hand.
He's been the catalyst for Notre Dame all season, and that hasn't changed through two NCAA tournament games. Grant still has yet to take a breather.
Though just 6'3", Baker actually has about a 20-pound advantage over Grant (222 lbs to Grant's 204). And he's tough as nails.
Wichita State will undoubtedly need Baker to bring his A-game at the defensive end. But the Shockers will also need that jumper to start falling.
Before beating Kansas, Baker had hit just six of his previous 29 three-point attempts. He isn't the playmaker Grant is, which is why he'll need that long ball to drop, both for his team and NBA outlook.
In the pros, he projects more as a spot-up threat and ball-mover. Baker has made at least 68 threes in back-to-back seasons, and though he only averages 2.5 assists, he's a high-IQ passer and decision-maker (1.1 turnovers per game).
A low ceiling will likely limit his first-round looks, but as a potential role player, his ability to guard point guards, knock down shots and hit the open man holds value.
North Carolina's Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson versus Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky
| Kaminsky | 16-of-27 | 21.5 | 9.5 | 0.5 |
| Johnson | 4-of-15 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 1.5 |
| Meeks | 8-of-13 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
Nobody at the college level seems to have an answer for senior Frank Kaminsky. However, North Carolina has an interesting frontcourt duo that could potentially give him some trouble down low.
At 6'9", Brice Johnson is a bouncy athlete, something Kaminsky is not. And at 280 pounds, Kennedy Meeks has the ability to move opposing big men with his body.
If there is an area of Kaminsky's game that isn't fully convincing, it's his strength under the boards. And that's where Johnson and Meeks do most of their damage.
However, Johnson has been nonexistent offensively over the Tar Heels' first two games. And Meeks sprained his knee after playing just 15 minutes against Arkansas, leaving his status for Thursday night's game unclear.
"Kennedy has a knee sprain. That's all we're saying right now," UNC coach Roy Williams told ESPN's Andrea Adelson. "We think that's all it is, but we'll get some X-rays or MRIs or both when we get back and find out what it is."
This will obviously be a story to follow, but if Johnson locks back in and Meeks can recover, there's an intriguing frontcourt matchup here to watch.
North Carolina's Justin Jackson versus Wisconsin's Sam Dekker
| Jackson | 11-of-21 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2-of-4 |
| Tokoto | 7-of-13 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 1-of-1 |
| Dekker | 14-of-27 | 18.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 7-of-16 |
Junior forward Sam Dekker has been tremendous for Wisconsin through two games, having hit seven triples while providing his usual presence as a driver and cutter.
However, North Carolina's starting wing has been equally effective. Freshman Justin Jackson has scored at least 14 points in both tournament games. He's shown the ability to stretch the floor as a shooter and connect with regularity in the mid-range (51 percent on two-point jumpers on the year), as well as finish with runners and floaters on the move.
Johnson will no doubt need another year in school, but at 6'8" with a high offensive skill level and deceptive mobility, there's no question he'll eventually generate some first-round buzz down the road.
He'll be a 2016 prospect to watch regardless, but a strong game against Dekker would likely raise the bar for him entering next year.
Projected Draft Range
As previously mentioned, the Sweet 16 will showcase a number of first-round options for the 2015 or 2016 draft. Take a look at where we project each of the top remaining prospects to land should they declare this year:
| Jahlil Okafor, Duke, 6'11", C, Freshman | Top three |
| Justise Winslow, Duke, 6'6", SF, Freshman | Top 10 |
| Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin, 7'0", C, Senior | Lottery to mid-first round |
| Jakob Poeltl, Utah, 7'0", C, Freshman | Lottery to mid-first round |
| Jerian Grant, Notre Dame, 6'5", PG, Senior | Lottery to late-first round |
| Kevon Looney, UCLA, 6'9", PF, Freshman | Lottery to late-first round |
| Delon Wright, Utah, 6'5", PG, Senior | Mid-first round to late-first round |
| Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga, 6'10", PF/C, Freshman | Mid-first round to late-first round |
| Sam Dekker, Wisconsin, 6'9", SF, Junior | Mid-first round to second round |
| Ron Baker, Wichita State, 6'3", PG/SG, Junior | Second round |
| Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina, 6'9", Sophomore | Second round |
| Brice Johnson, North Carolina, 6'9", PF, Junior | Second round |
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