Jeremy Shockey: Risky, but Great Fantasy Football Draft Value!

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Jeremy Shockey: Risky, but Great Fantasy Football Draft Value!
(Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

I’m looking at tight ends, and I see some value picks in the middle and late rounds. One of them is injury-prone New Orleans Saints tight end Jeremy Shockey. He’s going with the 121st overall pick, the 11th round in a 12-team league. His potential in the Saints offense is tremendous, but before I get to my breakdown….

If you grab him you better make sure you grab someone who is injury free, as we know Shockey is as fragile as they come. I chuckle when I think back to seeing him in his first preseason game and how he ran over a defender in the secondary. We thought he was the toughest cat coming out of college. Turned out that was the farthest thing from the truth!

Positives:

  • Despite a lost season last year because of injuries (hernia and ankle), he still posted 50 receptions in 12 games.
  • He also missed most of the preseason last year because of injury, thus failing to develop chemistry with quarterback Drew Brees.
  • Last season he did not have any explosiveness because of his injuries, but he is now healthy.
  • In 12 games he was still tied for 14th among tight ends in targets.
  • He should have been able to learn the playbook completely this offseason.
  • He was working out with the team during the offseason, something he hardly ever did with the New York Giants.
  • He wants a new contract, and we know players who want big money play better than they normally do. Sad but true!
jeremy-shockey-391x213-20090817

Folks have soured on Shockey so much that he presents great value

Negatives:

  • Shockey is fragile and has never played a full season.
  • The Saints have many weapons, including running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas as well as wide receivers Marques Colston, Lance Moore and (with my prediction he’ll finally step up) Robert Meachem.
  • There’s a chance Shockey is past his prime because of injuries; he’s entering his eighth season and he is 29-years-old.
  • Last year he had career lows in receiving yards (483 yards) and touchdowns (zero) and his second lowest output in receptions (50).

My projections (There is a high/low range, but I just want to present the raw numbers):

  • Receptions: 71
  • Receiving yards: 788
  • Receiving touchdowns: 5

I’m basing these numbers on a 16-game season. Don’t forget, he’s only averaging 14 games per season. Nevertheless, he’s worth a shot based on his average draft position, and I view him as a tight end with great upside.

What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

Don’t forget, I’m a Tweeter and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

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