March Madness 2015: Real-Time Picks, Updated Odds to Make the Final Four
The Sweet 16 for the NCAA men's basketball tournament is set, but our eyes (and odds) are still on Indianapolis and the Final Four.
Keep in mind that these shouldn't necessarily be considered power rankings of the remaining teams, because the difficulty of each squad's path to the Final Four was also taken into account. Therefore, we made sure that the odds for each region add up to 100 percent.
As such, apologies to every team in the Midwest Region not named Kentucky, because with odds of 2-3, the Wildcats are our overwhelming favorite to make it to the national semifinals right now.
Read on for the rest of the odds. The following slides are listed in ascending order of likelihood of making the Final Four.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are courtesy of ESPN.com or KenPom.com.
UCLA Bruins
1 of 16
Eye test
The No. 11 seed from the South Region did to UAB what we all expected Iowa State to do to the Blazers on Thursday, decimating them in the paint en route to a pretty comfortable win. Tony Parker was beyond unstoppable, finishing the afternoon with a career-high 28 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks.
It's a bit of a miracle that the Bruins were playing in that game in the first place, as it took a controversial goaltending call in the round of 64 against SMU for them to get there, but they looked pretty strong against UAB.
Roadblocks ahead
After taking care of business against UAB, the Bruins will face a Gonzaga team that they lost to by 13 points on their home court back in December. Avenge that loss, and it's probably on to an even tougher game against Duke in the Elite Eight.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
Bryce Alford is the driving force of this team. He had 27 points against SMU and another 22 against UAB. When he's shooting well and avoiding turnovers, UCLA is an extremely difficult team to beat. Throw in the type of domination in the paint that Parker and Kevon Looney are capable of producing and the scoring ability of Isaac Hamilton and Norman Powell, and this is a team that can score 90 against anyone.
Odds to make Final Four: 20-1
West Virginia Mountaineers
2 of 16
Eye test
The No. 5 seed from the Midwest Region has been doing what it did best all season, playing brutally physical and nearly unwatchable games, but emerging victorious. West Virginia forced 17 Buffalo turnovers in the round of 64 before ratcheting up the intensity to 11 against Maryland, forcing 23 turnovers and grabbing 14 offensive rebounds.
Roadblocks ahead
The Mountaineers have the biggest roadblock of them all in the Sweet 16, as they will be the next team to try to beat undefeated Kentucky. The Wildcats are a much less turnover-prone team than Maryland and Buffalo, but if they have a weakness, it's on the defensive glass. Kentucky allowed 21 offensive rebounds to Cincinnati on Saturday, and West Virginia will look to capitalize on those second and third opportunities on Thursday.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
West Virginia is the ultimate wild card in this tournament. The Mountaineers could frustrate anyone into an upset or they could get blown out by an opponent that refuses to be bothered by their pressure. To make the Final Four, they’ll need to force a ridiculous number of turnovers—just like VCU did in 2011.
Odds to make Final Four: 15-1
Xavier Musketeers
3 of 16
Eye test
The No. 6 seed from the West Region has been getting major contributions on offense from all over the place. Matt Stainbrook had 20 points and Dee Davis had 17 in the first game against Ole Miss; Jalen Reynolds had a career-high 21 and Myles Davis shot 5-of-8 from three-point range en route to a 17-point night against Georgia State.
Freshman Trevon Bluiett was the best player for the Musketeers for much of the season, but they've been able to win these games without getting much of anything from him. If he decides to show up next weekend, they could be very dangerous.
Roadblocks ahead
Arizona and Wisconsin are arguably the two best teams in the tournament not named Kentucky, and Xavier will probably need to go through both of them to reach the Final Four.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
Take a ride aboard the Stain Train (and Jalen Reynolds) in the paint and hope some of the guards are actually hitting shots. Of the five Musketeers who attempted at least 90 three-pointers this season, Remy Abell (42.2 percent) is the only one shooting better than 37.3 percent. But any one of them could get hot.
Odds to make Final Four: 15-1
North Carolina State Wolfpack
4 of 16
Eye test
The No. 8 seed in the East Region pulled off the biggest shocker of the round of 32 by upsetting Villanova on Saturday night. Nothing about North Carolina State's narrow win over LSU indicated there was much of a chance of this happening, but both Lennard Freeman and Abdul-Malik Abu recorded double-doubles as the Wolfpack simply out-muscled the Wildcats all night long.
This adds to a season that already included wins over Duke, North Carolina and Louisville, so count this team out at your own risk.
Roadblocks ahead
They'll be the underdogs the rest of the way, but the Wolfpack are likely headed for two low-scoring, defensive affairs. They'll get Louisville in the Sweet 16 before probably facing Oklahoma in the Elite Eight.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
NC State needs to figure out how to force turnovers. The Wolfpack don't have a good enough half-court defense to repeatedly go possession-for-possession with elite teams. They need to find some way to get easy buckets and hope that Trevor Lacey and Anthony "Cat" Barber can do enough from beyond the arc to shoot them to victory.
Odds to make Final Four: 8-1
Utah Utes
5 of 16
Eye test
The No. 5 seed in the South Region was one of the most popular round-of-64 upset picks in the entire field. Not only did the Utes survive against Stephen F. Austin, but they went on to knock off Georgetown as well, fairly comfortably winning both of those games.
Jakob Poeltl has been beyond efficient in the post, making 12 of his 13 field-goal attempts.
Roadblocks ahead
The Utes will face the Blue Devils in the Sweet 16 before likely running into Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. Both would provide interesting contrasts in style as very efficient offenses facing a very efficient defense.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
It all starts and ends with Delon Wright for Utah. Contributions from Poeltl, Jordan Loveridge and Brandon Taylor are crucial, but the Utes need Wright stuffing the stat sheet if they're to have any sort of prolonged success.
Odds to make Final Four: 8-1
Wichita State Shockers
6 of 16
Eye test
The No. 7 seed from the Midwest Region finally got the battle against its "big brother" that it had been asking to play for years, and the Shockers were clearly better than the Jayhawks, winning by a score of 78-65. It wasn't even the usual suspects doing the bulk of the damage, either. Tekele Cotton scored a season-high 19 points, and Evan Wessel hit four three-pointers after being held scoreless against Indiana on Friday.
Roadblocks ahead
Wichita State got over a pretty huge hurdle to reach the Sweet 16, but it doesn't get any easier from there. The Shockers will face Notre Dame on Thursday. If they top the Irish, they'll likely run into Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
It isn't rocket science, but Wichita State needs to protect the ball (which it usually does) and get hot from three-point range (far less consistent). Ron Baker struggled against Indiana (3-of-13 from the field, 0-of-5 from three-point range), but he could just as easily catch fire and score 35 in any upcoming game. And that might be necessary to beat some of these elite opponents.
Odds to make Final Four: 7-1
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
7 of 16
Eye test
The No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region has looked neither great nor itself thus far in the tournament. The Fighting Irish scored just 69 points against an average defensive team in Northeastern and needed overtime to score 67 points against Butler. But the defense was (surprisingly) sufficient enough to keep them dancing into the Sweet 16.
Jerian Grant has played well, though. Between the two games, he had 33 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds.
Roadblocks ahead
Notre Dame's road to the Elite Eight got a bit easier when Wichita State upset Kansas on Sunday afternoon, but there's still a gigantic speed bump waiting for the winner of that game in the Elite Eight in the form of Kentucky.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
For Notre Dame, it's all about making sure the offense is clicking well enough to make up for the poor defense. This team needs to score at least 80 to win comfortably, so it's no surprise that Jerian Grant and Co. were in a bit of hot water in a pair of games played in the 60s.
Odds to make Final Four: 6-1
North Carolina Tar Heels
8 of 16
Eye test
The No. 4 seed from the West Region shot very well (55.1 percent) against an upset-minded Harvard squad in the round of 64 and again against Arkansas (45.0 percent) to reach the Sweet 16. It was a full team effort against the Razorbacks, as five Tar Heels scored at least nine points and another (Brice Johnson) had 13 rebounds, seven points and multiple assists, steals and blocks.
The big question: Will Kennedy Meeks be OK? Meeks left late in the game after a knee injury and did not return. The diagnosis was a sprain, but if it's enough to keep him from playing next week, that could be a serious problem for the Tar Heels.
Roadblocks ahead
This might be one of the four most talented teams left in the field, but the Tar Heels have a very difficult road to the Final Four ahead of them, most likely needing to go through Wisconsin and Arizona.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
Marcus Paige needs to keep playing like he did against Arkansas (22 points, five steals, six rebounds). Those were the types of numbers we were expecting out of him all season long when he was named a preseason favorite for the Wooden Award.
Odds to make Final Four: 9-2
Michigan State Spartans
9 of 16
Eye test
The No. 7 seed in the East Region is onto the Sweet 16 after a pair of nice wins over Georgia and Virginia. The latter was anything but pretty. The Spartans attempted 33 free throws against just 40 field-goal attempts despite entering the game with one of the lowest free-throw rates in the tournament.
But, why not? Michigan State has now advanced to 13 of the last 18 Sweet 16s, including four in a row. Getting paired up against Tom Izzo on the first weekend of the tournament is just cruel and unusual punishment.
Roadblocks ahead
The Spartans would need to go through Oklahoma and either Louisville or NC State to reach the Final Four. Neither figures to be particularly easy, but the Spartans are clearly peaking at the right time.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
Michigan State has important players, but none more so than Branden Dawson. When the Spartans get him going, they are substantially more difficult to beat.
Odds to make Final Four: 3-1
Oklahoma Sooners
10 of 16
Eye test
The No. 3 seed from the East Region hasn't looked particularly good in either of its games against double-digit seeds, but with Villanova and Virginia out of the picture, the Sooners are suddenly the favorites in this region. Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas was strong in wins over Albany and Dayton, totaling 27 points, 14 rebounds and six blocks.
Roadblocks ahead
Oklahoma should be the favorite in each of the next two games against No. 7 seed Michigan State and No. 4 seed Louisville. That certainly doesn't mean the Sooners will win comfortably, but they might.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
Rebounding has been an issue for Oklahoma all season long, and it’s the biggest thing to address the rest of the way. Buddy Hield could potentially get hot and shoot the Sooners to a victory against anyone, but they’d be better off just doing a better job of protecting the glass.
Odds to make Final Four: 5-2
Louisville Cardinals
11 of 16
Eye test
The No. 4 seed in the East Region barely got past UC Irvine in the round of 64, but the Cardinals looked a whole lot stronger in the round of 32, thanks to a much better game out of leading scorer Terry Rozier. He had just 12 points against the Anteaters, but he had 25 in Louisville's win on Sunday over Northern Iowa.
Roadblocks ahead
Louisville gets a rematch against No. 8 seed North Carolina State before facing the winner of Oklahoma and Michigan State. In any other region, the short-handed Cardinals would still be a bit of a long shot, but they could absolutely emerge from the East to reach the Final Four.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
Quentin Snider and Wayne Blackshear have both scored in double figures in each of Louisville's games thus far. We expect those numbers out of Rozier and Montrezl Harrell, but if the other two guys are able to keep contributing for a team that plays great defense, the Cardinals just might be playing their best basketball of the season.
Odds to make Final Four: 2-1
Wisconsin Badgers
12 of 16
Eye test
The No. 1 seed from the West Region got more than it probably bargained for out of Oregon in the round of 32, but the Badgers prevailed to reach the Sweet 16. The three-headed frontcourt of Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes has been just plain ridiculous, combining for 109 points and 39 rebounds between the two wins from the tournament's first weekend.
Roadblocks ahead
Wisconsin might be the second-best team in the field, but the remaining draw is anything but favorable. The Badgers will face No. 4 seed North Carolina for the right to likely face Arizona in the Elite Eight. All that just to probably run into Kentucky in the Final Four.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
Just keep playing Wisconsin basketball. The Badgers have the most efficient offense in the country, per KenPom.com. As long as they don't suddenly decide to start committing turnovers and taking bad shots, they should be in great shape.
Odds to make Final Four: 8-5
Arizona Wildcats
13 of 16
Eye test
The No. 2 seed from the West Region has had a fairly effortless go of things thus far, beating Texas Southern by 21 before eliminating Ohio State by a 15-point margin. The starting frontcourt was surprisingly invisible in the latter of the two games, but T.J. McConnell and Gabe York each scored 19 while Arizona's defense drove D'Angelo Russell insane.
Roadblocks ahead
It's been an easy journey, and it shouldn't get much harder until the Elite Eight, as the Wildcats draw Xavier in the Sweet 16 before (hopefully) an incredible game against the Wisconsin Badgers.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
For the Wildcats, free-throw shooting is the big key, and they made 24 of 27 in the game against Texas Southern. They missed 26 free throws in their three losses earlier this season, so if they can keep shooting better than 88 percent, we wish the best of luck to their upcoming opponents.
Odds to make Final Four: 3-2
Gonzaga Bulldogs
14 of 16
Eye test
The No. 2 seed from the South Region had a bit of trouble against North Dakota State before beating the tar out of Iowa in the round of 32. Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis had no trouble whatsoever scoring on the Hawkeyes. It was Wiltjer's second straight game with at least 23 points and his fifth straight scoring at least 17.
Roadblocks ahead
Earlier this season, Gonzaga won at UCLA by 13. The Bulldogs will once again face the Bruins in the Sweet 16, this time in Houston. Provided the Zags can win that game, they're probably headed for one heck of a fun, high-scoring game against Duke in the Elite Eight.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
Buckle down on defense and keep being extremely efficient on offense. The shooting of Wiltjer and Kevin Pangos should be enough for a deep run, but it'd be great if the Zags could hold their opponents to less than 70 points, just in case those guys go cold.
Odds to make Final Four: 3-2
Duke Blue Devils
15 of 16
Eye test
The No. 1 seed from the South Region has looked more dominant than any other team in the tournament thus far. The Blue Devils smoked Robert "Bobby Mo" Morris by a 29-point margin before tearing San Diego State to pieces in the round of 32.
Of course, there's no telling when that cold shooting night could be coming. Villanova shot 63.2 percent in a 41-point rout of Lafayette before missing seemingly every shot against N.C. State two nights later. But as long as Jahlil Okafor stays out of foul trouble, they'll be very, very tough to beat.
Roadblocks ahead
After knocking off San Diego State, Duke's tour of teams from the western half of the country continues with a Sweet 16 battle against Utah before a likely showdown with Gonzaga in the Elite Eight.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
The offense is plenty good enough, but can defense keep the Blue Devils from another early exit? They barely did anything to slow down Notre Dame or North Carolina earlier this month, but if they can remain as stingy as they were against Robert Morris and SDSU, the Blue Devils could not only make it to Indianapolis, but also cut down the nets for a fifth time.
Odds to make Final Four: 5-4
Kentucky Wildcats
16 of 16
Eye test
The No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region and No. 1 overall seed didn't teach us anything on Thursday night that we didn't already know: Kentucky is incredible. Trey Lyles delivered one of the best highlight-reel dunks of the tournament, Karl-Anthony Towns had 21 points and 11 rebounds, and the Wildcats won by 23 points despite a combined 1-of-11 shooting night from Aaron Harrison and Devin Booker.
On Saturday against the Bearcats, they comfortably won a very uncomfortable game. Nothing was uncontested for either team, but Kentucky did a better job of contesting and avoiding turnovers. Cincinnati's 22 offensive rebounds were more than a bit concerning, but it didn't keep the 'Cats from winning by 13.
Roadblocks ahead
Two down, four to go. Kentucky will need to go through West Virginia before likely drawing Notre Dame in the Elite Eight. This is where things start to get serious, but that's also usually when Kentucky is at its best.
Key to making it to Indianapolis
Kentucky's biggest enemy is Kentucky. As long as the Wildcats remain engaged and continue to dominate the opposition in the paint, they'll get to 38-0 before facing a real challenge.
Odds to make Final Four: 2-3
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