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As draft time nears, much of the focus is on finding the late round sleepers, but avoiding the busts is even more important to your team's ultimate success.
After all, many of the biggest busts are players you took in the first five rounds whom you were counting on a major contribution.
Don't worry; we will cover the sleepers in our next article but for now let's look at the players to push down your draft board (or in some cases avoid altogether).
Quarterback:
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Before the hate mail comes, let me say I am not predicting Romo to completely flat-line in the post-Jessica Simpson era, but Romo will be more of a top 10-15 QB than a top five QB this season.
The Cowboys are expected to re-focus on the ground game this season and aside from tight ends Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett, the receivers are not the type that strike fear in opponents.
A return to 4,000 yards and 30+ TDs is not likely. He will still be solid, but a 3,500 yard 20-25 TD season is more likely and possibly optimistic.
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles
McNabb is a big name who always gets drafted high on draft day, but he is merely a good fantasy quarterback and not a great one.
Injuries are always a concern, but more concerning is that he has only thrown for 3,500+ yards twice in his career, only thrown more than 25 touchdowns once (way back in 2004), and does not run anymore.
In other words is he really worth anything more than Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, or Kurt Warner (not to mention Matt Schaub or Matt Ryan)? He will be hard pressed to be a top 10 quarterback again this season.
Matt Cassell, New England
Word is Cassell is hardly tearing it up in Chiefs camp and he no longer has Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to. He still has potential but there will be a learning curve this season. Duplicating his 2008 numbers is not likely. Don't draft him to be a starter except in a two quarterback league.
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
It is easy to say Flacco is going to get better with another year under his belt, but the Ravens are still going to be a defensive oriented team which relies on a ball control offense geared to minimize mistakes.
In addition, the Ravens did not improve Flacco's targets, aside from oft-injured TE LJ Smith. He might be better, but not by enough to make him fantasy relevant except in two quarterback leagues. A top 20 season in fantasy points would be an accomplishment for Flacco this year.
Running Back: (Hint: Don't gamble with aging running backs with early round picks)
LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers
LT was once the best player in fantasy football, but his play has slipped each of the past two seasons and few running backs over 30 are able to bounce back the inevitable slide.
Even if he is healthy, Darren Sproles will play an increased role this season. Overall, LT's risk outweighs his upside as a No. 1 running back. Let someone else gamble with their first round pick.
Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles
In 2007, Westbrook was an MVP candidate (2,104 total yards) and a PPR league monster. In 2008, he fell hard with just 1,338 total yards as he battled injuries all season long and those injuries are limiting him in camp thus far.
The icing on the cake is he turns the big 30 before the season starts and has never played in all 16 games during his career.
The problem is not a lack of talent but the risk of taking him with a pick in the first, second or even third rounds is too great as LeSean McCoy takes some of his touches.
Let someone else gamble on Westbrook unless he falls past round three. If you draft him, you will need to overdraft McCoy as a handcuff.
Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins
The burden of carrying the Redskins offense really showed late last season and the offense (especially the line) does not look any better this season. He is more of a grinder than a breakaway back at this stage in his career and is no longer a fantasy force.
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers
I can't just pick on again veterans, so let this be a caution on DeAngelo. Williams is in a time share and duplicating his 20 overall touchdowns ( including 6 from 30+ yards) is not likely.
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