Boise State Broncos vs. Dayton Flyers Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The Dayton Flyers will have a rare home-court advantage in the NCAA tournament when they wrap up the First Four by hosting the Boise State Broncos Thursday with both No. 11 seeds playing for a spot opposite the sixth-seeded Providence Friars for Friday's game.

The Flyers just fell to the Virginia Commonwealth Rams 71-65 in the Atlantic 10 tournament title game as 2.5-point underdogs, and the Broncos were upset by the Wyoming Cowboys 71-66 in overtime as 4.5-point favorites in the Mountain West semifinals.

Opening spread

The Flyers opened as two-point favorites. Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.

Why pick Boise State to cover the spread

Boise State enjoyed a fairly successful season up until its last game, winning seven straight and 15 of 16 to tie the San Diego State Aztecs for the Mountain West regular-season title. The Broncos also were outstanding against the spread heading into the tourney semis against Wyoming, covering 14 of 16 down the stretch.

Unfortunately, that overtime loss to the Cowboys likely put them into this play-in game rather than getting to bypass it like Wyoming and San Diego State. Boise State is still a quality team, though, and should be excited for the chance to make amends in Dayton after losing 80-71 to La Salle as a 1.5-point favorite there in the First Four two years ago.

Why pick Dayton to cover the spread

Dayton is a dangerous team that just ran into a buzz saw in the A-10 championship game, as Shaka Smart’s VCU team again looks like it could be a nightmare matchup in this year’s NCAA tournament.

Last year, the Flyers were the team everybody was scared of in the Big Dance, and rightfully so. They went 4-0 ATS in last year’s NCAA tournament, upsetting the sixth-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes, third-seeded Syracuse Orange and 10th-seeded Stanford Cardinal as underdogs before falling to the top-seeded Florida Gators 62-52 but still covering as 10.5-point dogs in the South Regional final.

Much like Boise State, winning one more game would have helped Dayton avoid playing in the First Four, but at least the team has the edge of getting to play in its home arena.

Smart betting pick

The Flyers were perfect at home this season, going 16-0 straight up and 9-6 ATS (there was no line on their 78-62 victory against the Boston Terriers).

While the Broncos had a solid record away from home, going 12-7 SU and 11-8 ATS on the road and playing on neutral courts, this will be a difficult atmosphere for them. Winning the Mountain West tournament would have given bettors more faith in Boise, which is essentially on the road in this spot. But then again, another victory would have probably put this team elsewhere in the bracket.

Instead, this is Dayton’s game to lose as the “home” favorite, and the Flyers are 21-3 SU in their past 24 games as chalk.

Power rankings

Boise State Broncos: No. 6

Dayton Flyers: No. 62 (per Odds Shark power ranks)

March Madness betting trends

- Boise State ended year on 15-2 SU run.

- Dayton is 21-3 SU this season as favorites.

- Boise State is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games as underdogs.

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