Rebel Stakes 2015: Post Time, Post Positions, Contenders, Odds and Schedule

In the lead up to Triple Crown season, the Oaklawn three-year-old stakes program represents our last opportunity to handicap the field of top contenders. The Rebel Stakes, held at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, is the second leg of that three-leg series. Despite being shorter than the Triple Crown races at just 8 ½ furlongs, recent Rebel Stakes winners, like Curlin and Lookin at Lucky, have gone on to win at least one of the three coveted thoroughbred races.

This year, the race will serve as an opportunity to view potential Kentucky Derby favorite American Pharoah, who hasn’t raced since winning the FrontRunner Stakes nearly six months ago. Pharoah might have already established himself as the top three-year-old, but a foot injury forced him to miss the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in October, allowing Texas Red to seize the spotlight.

Now, with top two-year-old filly, Take Charge Brandi, scratched from the race, Pharoah is a strong favorite. Because of that, Oaklawn promises to shape the pre-Derby narrative, either cementing him as a favorite or highlighting challengers that could steal the spotlight come May.

For fans looking to get a jump on the Triple Crown season, check out the full viewing information, post positions and odds below (via Lady and the Track), as well as analysis of the storylines surrounding Pharoah and the other contenders in the seven-horse field.

Rebel Stakes Info

Post Time: Saturday, March 14 at 7:06 p.m. ET

Where: Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas

Watch: HRTV

Post	Horse	Odds
1	The Truth or Else	4-1
2	Madefromlucky	6-1
3	Tizwonderfulcreek	30-1
4	American Pharoah	1-2
5	Bold Conquest	8-1
6	Paid Admission	15-1
7	Sakima	20-1

Rebel Stakes Storylines

American Pharoah’s 3-Year-Old Debut

The Bob Baffert-trained horse won the Eclipse Award last year as racing’s top two-year-old, but injuries have raised doubt as to whether or not he’ll be able to peak at Churchill Downs. Still, having won his only two Grade I races, the Grade II Rebel Stakes actually represent a bit of a downgrade in competition, albeit a necessary tuneup for the $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 11.

Pharoah appears to have a significant leg up on the rest of the field. His previous speeds are far faster than what the other competitors have posted, and as the top speed horse in the field, jockey Victor Espinoza should be able to push him through the shorter distance.

Natural talent doesn’t entirely nullify rust, though, and Pharoah’s six-workout stretch leading up to the race is a fairly abbreviated lead into his first race since September. Though Espinoza had Pharoah working at six to seven furlongs, Baffert still believes that Saturday will have value in reacclimating Pharoah to race conditions: 

In truth, this should serve as more of a confirmation of Pharoah’s legitimacy than anything else. Most of his top two-year-old rivals—such as Carpe Diem, Dortmund and Upstart—have already raced and won in 2015. The Arkansas Derby will provide Pharoah a look at that elite competition, but losing one month before that race would certainly raise some red flags.

For now, there’s not necessarily much reason to doubt Baffert’s colt. Pharoah will get to start right in the middle of the field from the No. 4 post, with three horses on either side, a favorable draw. However, should he stumble, there are a few contenders with high ceilings that could pull the upset.

High-Upside Dark Horses

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Pharoah’s top two challengers will start next to each other on the rail. Madefromlucky, a Todd Pletcher-trained horse, has yet to race in a graded stakes race but has the type of upside that could vault him into the Derby. Foaled from Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky, Madefromlucky’s bloodlines suggest a racehorse that could thrive in the rigorous Triple Crown circuit:

Indeed, his last race came at the same distance as the Rebel Stakes, an allowance race at Gulfstream in which he ran out front for nearly the entire race before pulling away down the stretch. That convincing win was also his first race under Pletcher, making Madefromlucky an unknown, but promising option.

Danny Johnston/Associated Press

Additionally, the Truth or Else represents an appealing option from the No. 1 post. Though he’s won just one of his eight career starts, the Truth or Else has placed in the top three in three of his four graded stakes races. That includes a runner-up finish in his last race, the Southwest Stakes on Feb. 22, in which he ran well under sloppy conditions.

Given that rain has mucked up the course throughout the week, it’s possible that the Truth or Else could receive a boost from these conditions. Moreover, the race also gave the Truth or Else racing experience at Oaklawn Park, something that American Pharoah and Madefromlucky don’t possess. Jockey Calvin Borel, one of the most decorated active jockeys, has praised the Truth or Else’s form headed into Oaklawn:

None of the horses in the field besides Pharoah have won more than once, so for all the potential, most of his challengers are still unproven. But in a year where injuries have thwarted several top three-year-olds, the Triple Crown season is aching for one of the other six horses to join Pharoah as a legitimate threat in the summer.