Though the LSU Tigers weren't a shoe-in for the SEC West title for 2008 by any stretch, the "experts" now must predict a more level playing field with Ryan Perrilloux's recent dismissal from the team. Everyone was calling for Auburn to be the darkhorse to win the West. Now that LSU has come back down to earth-- thanks to sub-par recruiting by head coach Les Miles (his recruits are being stolen all along the Gulf Coast by the Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida coaches)-- and Perrilloux's exit, Auburn, perhaps inexplicably, has become the favorite to win the West according to the "experts."
These notions are false. There is no favorite to win the West. There are four, that's right, four teams who could take the West crown. With the exception of Ole Miss and Arkansas, who will be in quick re-build mode, the race is as even as it has been this millennium. If you're keeping pace with this article, you're realizing that Mississippi State is included in this race. Neither the Bulldogs nor Auburn are darkhorse candidates to win the West because there is no darkhorse. The precise reason that a four-team season-long slugfest of unpredictability will occur is because every team knows the other is just as good as they themselves are. The team that answers the challenge week in and week out against SEC competition will be the team that prevails as the West champ. Let's look at each team's case.
Auburn:
Auburn is attempting a coordinator overhaul, electing to let go of Al Borges (offense) and Will Muschamp (defense), arguably the best coordinator duo in college football the last few years, is not going to be easy to replace. The transition may be relatively smooth on offense, especially since the Tigers won't have the less-than-mobile Brandon Cox under center trying to run the newly-implemented spread attack. They have two seemingly capable candidates to fill the QB position with Kodi Burns and Chris Todd. They have a stable of capable RBs behind them to help the two young signal-callers adjust in the early going as well. Look for Mario Fannin to shine in their deep backfield a little more than the rest due to his versatility. His playing time should be somewhat akin to Knowshon Mareno's last season (Georgia is known for always having a deep offensive backfield). However, it's the defense that could actually be the concern with the new transition. Auburn, through any of its offensive woes this decade, has been able to rely on strong team defense and special teams. However, they have had stability with their defense that is flushed away this season. The veterans, along with the youngsters always had a known system to buy into, study, and execute (with the same coach). With new defenses, team speed slows down because the players cannot instinctively react as they would had they practiced the same philosophy for, say, three to four years of repitition. Auburn has always been solid on defense because, with what they lack in athleticism, they make up for in knowledge and trust in a proven defensive system. Expect some defensive miscues that lead to big plays by the opposing teams' offenses next season, especially early on. The offense will have to account for the defense's miscues, no simple task for two unproven QBs in a new spread system. Especially in the one league in college football that has proved to be impossible to run a true spread against because of its stellar defenses. But then again, they are Auburn after all, so it all coming together is a possibility for them. Verdict: Auburn will lose some games they shouldn't, but could also win some they shouldn't.
Mississippi State:
As long as people still count Mississippi State as somewhat of an underdog, they will beat some good teams. They are proof that when you hire a coach for rebuilding, he deserves about five years for results. A program in the dumps cannot be saved in three years, much less one or two. Hats off to the athletic board at State for allowing Sly Croom to do his thing without the pressure of having his job threatened. Wesley Carroll will be widely talked about this season. He was battling injuries as the starting QB for an SEC school as an 18-year-old kid last season and was still productive. He's bigger, has better arm strength, and loads more confidence and knowledge than last season. Anthony Dixon is one of the better backs in the SEC and Ducre is a fine backup. An incoming TE, Nelson Hurst, showed great promise in the Spring. On the other side, the defense returns a strong Linebacking corps, the heart of the defense. The question with the Bulldogs is the same as always: team speed. Verdict: Mississippi State has a shot if they can overcome a lack of speed and athleticism with consistent execution.
LSU:
LSU loses Ryan Perrilloux, an extremely promising QB prospect. Nobody even really thought much about his back-ups until now, when they are front and center. He was the centerpiece to that team. I don't buy into the idea that his departure is a good thing. Perrilloux as a distraction off the field isn't nearly as detrimental to the Tiger team as his absence is on it. The offense is still producing capable receivers year in and year out, as is the offensive backfield (although losing the versatile Jacob Hester is no small blow). Their defensive front seven looks to be very strong again, though I don't buy Les Miles' statement that they're better than last year. Losing a Glenn Dorsey doesn't make any front seven better. Watch for teams to air it out against the Bayou Bengals. They lose one of the best, most experienced defensive backfields this season. They lose Jonathan Zenon, Chevis Jackson, and Craig Steltz (all had All-SEC talent). The one bright spot is that Harry Coleman filled in admirably for the injured Steltz in the Championship Game. Les Miles is in damage control mode. He keeps saying that they are still a "damn fine football team," and that his defensive line is better than last year. We all know he's a loon who possesses little self-awareness, and we all know that he's hurt from not being allowed to take the Michigan job. Kirk Herbstreit promised that he knew Miles was going to bolt for the Wolverines after the season. Herby was right, but he did it right before the SEC Championship, forcing Miles to call an emergency press conference denying the claims so that his players wouldn't feel betrayed. After winning the National Championship (which they were, indeed, the rightful pick to play in the game as they were the best team in the country), he couldn't lose credibility by still choosing to go to Michigan (though it's a perfect fit on both ends). Dumb mistake. As stated previously, he can neither recruit nor coach with the best of the SEC coaches. He called ridiculous plays that went his way (see the last play of the Auburn game) last season and he was playing with master recruiter Nick Saban's players. Miles is lucky, but in over his head. Verdict: LSU is on a very steady decline and will be beaten by teams who can prove to throw the ball consistently against them.
Alabama:
The Crimson Tide spent last season learning two complex pro-style systems on offense and defense. They possessed talented players, but lacked any depth whatsoever. This season is different in the sense that they have increased exposure to the Saban schemes and philosophy along with added depth. The catch is that most of that depth comes in the form of the Freshmen that make up the nation's top recruiting class. Those "in the know" know that something special is brewing in Tuscaloosa. However, that championship season is still a year or two away. The Tide has a veteran QB, strong O-line (as do LSU and Auburn), and a litany of RBs at their disposal. The defense has tons of questions in its front seven, like "Who's going to step up?", but should be about as good as last season. The defensive secondary should be even better this year with last year's true freshman standout Kareem Jackson and All-SEC Safety Rashad Johnson returning. Return-man extraordinaire Javier Arenas is back and looks like a fine CB in-the-making to boot. The biggest question with Alabama is whether they can stay healthy long enough for the Freshmen to learn enough to make a difference. This is especially true of OLB Jerrell Harris and WR Julio Jones, the cornerstone's of that Freshman class. If the tide can work them into full-time roles by mid-season without having to rush them in due to injuries, they could challenge for the West title. Verdict: If the team can have it's star-studded Freshman class producing by the Georgia game in Athens, Alabama could be the favorite in the West.
Overall verdict:
Auburn may play as well as anyone at the end of the season, but they will lose too many games early in a transition year to win the West crown. Mississippi State's toughness will get them some wins, but their lack of athleticism will lose them too many games to teams that don't overlook them as they did last season. LSU will be somewhat confident early because of the easy early-season games mixed with their own self-delusion. When they start losing SEC games, Les Miles' mouth will distract them far worse than Perrilloux's attitude ever could. Alabama has the most pure chance because their quest for the West title can be marred only by injury. If they can scrape by the season opener against Clemson and come out on the other side healthy, and get their talented Freshman involved and learning against the cupcakes early, the Tide has the best shot at playing in the Georgia Dome at the end of the regular season. These teams are all haunted by big "If's" though, and it will be interesting to see who prevails.
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4 months ago
I agree with a large part of your article with a few exceptions. Ole Miss will be in the thick of things this year as well. Over all they are more talented than Mississippi State, have a much better coach now and arguably the best QB in the West to lead them. They won't win, but they will be competetive and will surprise many.
Secondly, anything can happen, but I do not see Miss. State being as much of a threat as you do. After there much troubled off-season and dismissal of starters, I do not see the team doing any better than last year. They will cause trouble to some others in the west, but will not compete to the extent of actually winning the west. At least that's my opinion.
I also agree with you that if Alabama can get by Clemson with out major injury and come out with a win, they should be looking very good rolling into Athens as the Dawgs will be coming off two tough road games AT South Carolina and AT Arizona State. Even though they do have to play in Athens they will have a good chance at getting to the Dome if they can win at least split both UGA/LSU and UT/AU.
Should be a fun year. I can't wait!
4 months ago
Some decent info in here regarding players, but some of this stuff doesn't make any sense. Your comment about Miss. State is kinda funny about execution, I'm sure every coach is saying that. And did you say, "with what Auburn's defense lacks in athleticism"? Dude, they were the #1 defense in the league last year statistically and you won't find many more athletic defenses than Auburn's. Not to mention we are known for being mroe athletic than we are disciplined, trust me I know. Rhoads is more about fundamentals than Muschamp was as well. Tubs has an overall strategy on D that stays consistent no matter who the DC is. Paul Rhoads will come in and run a lot of the same stuff that Muschamp ran, so there won't be a big transition there. Only big difference is they will play a little more zone mixed in with man in the secondary than what Muschamp liked to run with all man to man.
Also, I have Alabama in my preseason top 25, but you can't really say they are the favorite can you? All that stops them is injury? Come now, and you expect true freshman to be playing like veterans by the fourth game? Easy. Sounds like some bias there.
And if this is an SEC West preview, did you just forget about Ole Miss and Arkansas or just figure they aren't worth the time? I mean if you are going to preview the division, preview the ENTIRE division.
4 months ago
To Justin:
I didn't preview the division. I previewed the teams that have a shot to win it. I mentioned that Arkansas and Ole Miss don't have a real chance. Read more closely. And as far as bias goes, I didn't even think I had a favorite until the end of the article. Once I got toward the end, I went back and looked at the teams' overviews and realized that Alabama may have a shot barring injury. They play cupcakes like everyone else early, and if they can fit in a couple puzzle pieces with Freshmen like Julio Jones and Jerrell Harris they have the most legitimate shot. However, if that doesn't happen, which is completely feasible, then they don't. Same with LSU and Auburn. Clearly, you're biased as you referred to Auburn as "we". But look at Alabama last year, they were a serviceable defense but nothing like they had been before the coaching turnover. It will help if the defense is similar, but it still affects team speed-- that's inevitable. LSU has the best athlete's. It's up to the passing game on both sides of the ball that will determine whether they walk away with the West title. Miss St. needs to execute BETTER than their opponents to make up for the lack of athleticism. They have to win the turnover battle and execute third downs and other little things every single Saturday to walk away with the title. Obviously, most of these teams will not be able to positively answer on their big questions. The point of the article was to point out that the team that does fill in their question marks with successful answers will take that success to the Georgia Dome.
from 4 months ago
Well I just think if you are going to do a division preview, you should preview all the teams. Especially considering you said it's wide open. Never seen a preview of a division where two teams get excluded.
Yea I'm an Auburn fan, look at my profile picture. Not like I'm trying to hide it. : ) But to say that Alabama has the "purest chance", whatever that means, as long as they avoid injury just seems off to me. Have you seen their schedule? They play Clemson as the opener which will be a physical game then later on at Georgia, at LSU, at Tennessee, and then Auburn as well. That schedule would be tough for Auburn, LSU, Florida, anyone, but especially Alabama when they are still rebuilding. I have Alabama in my top 25 preseason, that might be a stretch, but that's expecting freshman to come in and play which they will. But I really doubt they will be making a huge impact by the fourth game, that just rarely happens, especially a large number of freshman at once.
I understand your point on Miss. State, but that goes for every team. Every team, no matter the talent, has to execute to win and mistakes will beat even the most talented of teams. Just look at Auburn losing to Miss. State last year.
Interesting article, like that you are writing about SEC football though, look forward to more of your stuff.
4 months ago
I agree with you about Alabama's schedule. I don't think I took that into account enough. At Georgia, UT, and LSU is brutal; and we all know the Iron Bowl will be a dog fight. I think people aren't giving Tennessee enough credit. The East division is going to be ridiculous. Especially considering Georgia and Florida may be the two best teams in the country. Then, throw UT into the mix and... ouch.
4 months ago
Miles can't recruit . . . Miles is a loon . . . yatta, yatta, yatta. Miles wanted to go to Michigan. Herby and ESPN didn't get their facts wrong -- nasty old Les Miles just double-crossed them. Give it a rest. They were wrong, and you are wrong. If the story doesn't fit the facts, the facts can't be what's wrong.
The rumors of LSU's impending decline are highly exaggerated by you, and you are obviously not following LSU's early commits among blue-chippers to have a clear picture of Miles' recruiting.
Losing Perrilloux will probably hurt LSU on the field at first, but the first three non-conference games will give Lee and / or Hatch a chance to learn. If they're as smart as they are reputed to be, they have a chance to beat Auburn. Let's remember that LSU's two championships came with Matt Mauk and Matt Flynn, who did not have the physical tools of either a Jamarcus Russell or a Ryan Perrilloux. They were smart. They were cool under pressure. They were "good enough". LSU's Crowton will design a basic game plan at first that will give the young QBs confidence, and build on it. I look for LSU to go 10-2 or 9-3 with young quarterbacks this year.
That said, you are right that the SEC West is a very competitive division, and any team can beat any other team any weekend. If there are 3 conference losses among the leaders, I like LSU's chances with the tiebreaker.
4 months ago
Miles had a Top 15 recruiting class last year (actually ranked around 11 or 12 by most svcs) so yeah, as far as LSU goes, that was a down year, but the talent was down in La. last year which happens about once every 6 or 7 years. So, I don't buy other coaches stealing his recruits.
Miles and staff are on fire for '09 recruiting and if you knew that you wouldn't make such a blanket statement.
These are Miles' 09 commits:
1. Michael Ford, RB Leesville, LA
2. Henry Orelus, OL Belle Glade, FL
3. Josh Downs, DT Bastrop, LA
4. Michael Brockers, DE Houston, TX
5. Janzen Jackson, CB Lafayette, LA
6. Drayton Calhoun, ATH, Tucker, GA
7. Russell Shepard, QB, Houston, TX
8. Chris Garrett, QB, Tupelo, MS
9. Dexter Pratt, RB, Navasota, TX
10. Kevin Minter, LB, Suwanee, GA
11. Willie Ferrell, LB, Tallahassee, FL
Only 3 out of the 11 are even from La. and Miles has La. locked down. Oh and btw, none of these players are below 4 stars.
Keep underestimating Miles. For LSU fans, it's the best thing you could do.
4 months ago
I feel like Auburn should be the favorite right now but Alabama is a darkhorse right now they have a very good chance of winning the west too.
from 4 months ago
Auburn the favorite with a freshmen QB, a new offense and a new defense. What a joke!
4 months ago
Ole Miss doesn't have a chance in hell. Snead is NOT one of the best QB's in the division. That is hilarious. You Ole Miss fans always blow up a QB who ends up being a dud.
4 months ago
Miles' subpar recruiting? You lost ALL credibility there. His last three recruiting classes according to Rivals were ranked 7th, 4th, and 11th. According to Scout, his last three classes have been ranked 7th, 5th, and 7th. Yeah, those are subpar classes. Quite frankly, I stopped reading right there because nothing else you have to say can be considered credible. Though I would like to know who these "experts" are who are giving the West to Auburn. Just a few days ago, Herbie on ESPN ("expert"?) still liked LSU to win the West.
4 months ago
Oh, and I don't see how Bama is a favorite to win the West at all this year. They may finish as low as 4th. I think Auburn and LSU will fight for the West title with Bama trailing well behind. They're not going to beat Clemson to start the season for starters, and it will be downhill from there. They'll crush the next two creampuffs, but a win @Arkansas isn't guaranteed in game 4...a loss @UGA is in game 5. They should beat Kentucky at home, but Ole Miss isn't going to be a walk-over this year. Then they have a trip to Tennessee before pimp-slapping ArkieSt. They're not going to beat LSU this year in BR; should beat MSU in a revenge game; and then get lose to Auburn at home.
I have the Tide as 5-5 plus two toss-ups @Arkansas and vsOle Miss (putting them at 2-4 in the SEC plus those two toss-ups).
Go ahead Bama fans and rip away.
4 months ago
very steady decline?... last game lsu played they won the national title. u have got ur facts messed up man. granted we will miss ryan, even though he only played two games. but hatch and lee have just as many sec titles as the rest of the quarterbacks in the west. our offensive line is coming back and we are deeper in our d line. what may/might hurt us is our CORNER backs. but we get the whole season to igure this out. have a great day.
4 months ago
Dude, why don't you just start out by saying I hate Les Miles, the rest of your comments would make alot more sense. Can't recruit (bogus). Can't coach (bogus, try beating his post season record, when both coaches have alot of time to scheme and coach for the opponent.) You seem to forget how banged up LSU was last year. Also you forgot how good Les is at recruiting asst coaches and coordinators. His last def coord is head coach at Nebraska. I love Crowton, and look forward to seeing his offense this year. Look at Jarred Lee's high school film and you will see my reason to be optomistic link
http://www.chevyprepticket.com/video.aspx?itemID=1001212555&catID=5750&bhcp=1&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
If LSU has the #1 recruiting class this year and wins the west will you come back and say I am a Les Miles hating biased idiot?
4 months ago
Nick, without wasting my time to go into detail, it is obvious you know or understand very little about college football. However, I do seriously believe you might make a successful career as a stand up comedian.
4 months ago
Nick, you are a fraud. You know nothing about college football, and most probably a Crimson Tampon fan. You deserve to have your writing buried on some 2nd rate board like the Bleacher report.
4 months ago
Nick,
It is clear you hate LSU and Miles. Bama fan?..........when you read the commentary, the most venom comes in your narrative about LSU/Miles. So where did you graduate (if you did) from college? ......or where did you grow up and who are you a fan of?
And Miles one with Louisiana boys that committed to LSU, not to Nick Saban. The sooner you all realize that most La players stay in state, the sooner you will accept the truth that Nick did not make LSU, but instead, LSU made Nick. Go look at Nick's resume............Big time success came at LSU and it elluded him elsewhere. And yes, Miles is benefitting from that too.
4 months ago
LOL.
Allow me to explain. Normally, I would never use the "LOL" abbreviation, because it makes one sound juvenile, like a 14 year old talking trash in a game chat online, or a 20-something journalism major at Bama trying to make a name for himself with a composition of pure delusion.
However, after reading the entire article and the preceding comments, I found myself actually laughing outloud. "How do I convey this sheer emotion through my keyboard?" I wondered.
Thus, the LOL usage.
Y'all made me laugh! Hahahahahaha!!!
Geaux Tigers.
4 months ago
I think what I believe has already been stated many times. LSU is still significantly the most talented team in the west. LSU's D will be either #1 or #2 in the league. If there was any team hurt by injuries, it was LSU last year. Glenn Dorsey, Craig Steltz, Matt Flynn, Trindon Holliday, Early Doucet, Charles Alexander, Kirston Pittman, Chevis Jackson...the list goes on. Those were all starters that got injured. And yet we still won a national championship. This was a laughable preview, Alabama by no means has the West gauranteed if they stay healthy. They just aren't there yet.
Miss. St won't win the west but they will win games they shouldn't. They beat Bama last two years...so keep overlooking them.
Once again, the west will come down to LSU-Auburn. The loser of that game is essentially 2 games behind the winner.
Nick... you have potential to be a great writer....at ESPN, where this kind of uninformed nonsense would be greatly welcomed. thanks
4 months ago
Les Miles may not be the best coach out there... To say that LSU has lost out on recruits to other southern teams just lets me know that you are an idiot. LSU has been able to pick and choose players from all over the south. The 2009 class is starting off great as well. Only 3 of the 11 so far are from Louisiana because they are taking the best from Texas to Florida. In 2008 we got the best defensive back in the nation from Florida. In 2009 we will get the best dual threat QB from Houston. Do some research before you write something. I just need to remember to never read anything from this site again.
You are an IDIOT
4 months ago
Alabama :
"They possessed talented players"
"complex pro-style systems on offense and defense"
"Saban schemes and philosophy"
"Those "in the know" know that something special is brewing in Tuscaloosa."
"that championship season is still a year or two away"
"Alabama could be the favorite in the West"
yep they are well on their way..... just as soon as their superstar coach can overcome powerhouses like ULL and Miss St.
4 months ago
Great article. Props to you for taking an objective look at Miss. State this year. I see them being very competitive in all their games but they will probably lose At LSU, At Tenn., and At Alabama (revenge factor). This still leaves them at 9-3(5-3) if they take care of all their other business. Depending on the rest of the league 5-3 can win it next year or tie for first probably with Auburn, LSU, or Bama.
But of course, I am biased. Go State!!!!
BTW, everyone on here doubting MSU is simply proving that we may be able to surprise some teams early again, i.e. Aurburn and GTech.
3 months ago
I think some of you have misunderstood the article. The idea is that the West is open. Honestly, even Arkansas and Ole Miss will win some games the shouldn't. Especially if Ryan Mallett wins his appeal to play this year. The fact is, there are no dark horses. Every team knows every other team has a shot at beating them. The team that over looks any of their West counterparts is the team that gets left in the dust.
To all you obviously disgruntled LSU fans: chill. Actually, you don't have to chill. It's obvious that my article struck such a chord with you that you found the time to whine and cry about my discrediting Les Miles. The most fun thing about that is the fact that one of you said you were tired of everyone doing that to Les Miles. The truth is that no one does it enough. That's why i went after him. If everyone were going after Miles, there would have been no need of my bashing him. Hilariously, you (LSU fans) know that most of these nay-sayers are right deep down. It's your paranoia about your own coach that has you saying that "everybody" hates on him.
His recruiting classes are just like those at USC. Kids go there because of past success. I could care less about Alabama or Nick Saban, but to any with intuition and insight, it's obvious that Miles has had the incredible benefit of enjoying Saban's success and players. And LSU, the school, had absolutely nothing to do with that. LSU had one national championship until last year. The school did not produce the success, the coach and players he recruited did.
But as soon as you Tigers fans stop crying, I can explain more. Nobody was even close to as good a team as LSU was last year. It took them six OTs just to lose 2 games. It was beyond me how anyone could even question why LSU got the nod to go to the title game. If they weren't in it, I would have considered it a travesty and wouldn't have even watched on TV. Ohio State got the nod to go to the Championship game too. Which, if you're from the South, you probably just laughed and had to force yourself watch what would be an easily predictable shellacking. The Big 10 is still in denial thinking they can EVER match up with the SEC. And look who raked in all bowls last year: the SEC.
Back to LSU. They are the new USC. There is no reason in hell LSU shouldn't have been in (and won) the national championship the last few years. Yet they only won one. They enjoy the prospect now of nabbing recruits that look at the past. It's what happens when there is a dominant team recognized in college football. They will be good the next year or two, but they still won't be national championship- caliber. They are what USC has become and what Miami became before them, and Florida before them. It's the way dynasties fall. So get over yourselves LSU fans. Trust me, the entire nation appreciates the vigor of LSU fans (I've been to multiple games where LSU was the away team and they are the loudest in the country, hands down). But you guys have got to learn some objectivity for God's sake. If you watch the natural rhythms of the college football, you would see that LSU is on the decline. Forget the recruiting class. Your coach simply cannot lead you there. Sure, you will remain competitive, but what happens when all those ridiculous play calls (a la Auburn) go the other way? My response to the thoughts that I just sparked in your head: "Exactly."
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