Projecting the Los Angeles Dodgers' Final 25-Man Roster at the Start of Spring

With the start of spring training finally here, it’s time to take a look at our expectations for the Los Angeles Dodgers' upcoming season.

This should be a time of optimism and excitement for all teams, but the Dodgers are especially well-positioned. With a deep and talented roster, manager Don Mattingly will have plenty of quality options to choose from.

Note: All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Infield

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C Yasmani Grandal will be a key part of the Dodgers' hopes.

Yasmani Grandal, C

The headline arrival in this offseason’s Matt Kemp trade, Grandal should step right into the starting catcher role. He should provide both an offensive and defensive upgrade over incumbent A.J. Ellis, but at the very least, the switch-hitter can be the strong side of a platoon.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

Gonzalez is a consistent, veteran contributor who has played at least 156 games in every full season of his career. While he is clearly no longer at his absolute peak, he is still an above-average hitter who is worth a couple of wins above replacement each season.

He will not be the spectacular middle-of-the-order force he once was, but his placement in the lineup means that he will get plenty of chances to drive in runs—and he is still a good enough hitter to capitalize.

Howie Kendrick, 2B

Another new arrival, Kendrick will be the everyday second baseman for the Dodgers this season. Like every other person on the active roster, he is a good player who will bring positive value to the club.

A 98 wRC+ (just 2 percent below league average, regardless of position) is the lowest he’s posted since his rookie season, and that combines with his overall positive defensive contributions (UZR data, via FanGraphs) to make a very valuable player.

Jimmy Rollins, SS

Rollins is just a one-year stopgap if all goes well. Phenom Corey Seager is expected to be the shortstop in 2016, but the former Phillie is still a good player and should provide quality production up the middle.

As a shortstop, the bar for production is low—which makes Rollins' league-average bat and quality defense all the more impressive.

Juan Uribe, 3B

I still consider it a relative miracle that Uribe is in the league given his hilariously awful 2011 and 2012 seasons. However, he still is, and he is quite a good third baseman.

Uribe has been well above average on both offense and defense the last two years, and there’s no particular reason to expect he’ll fall off a cliff now. He is obviously not a long-term answer, but his contract ends after this season, so he isn’t being counted on as such.

Outfield

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Yasiel Puig is the Dodgers' best position player.

Carl Crawford, LF

Because of his relatively extreme righty-lefty splits, Crawford will likely be the strong side of a platoon if all goes well. However, he can play that role well.

In his two seasons with the Dodgers, Crawford has been an above-average hitter and defender. He is a left fielder with no power and declining speed, so he is no way worth his $20 million contract, but he is actually still a good player.

Joc Pederson, CF

I expect Pederson to be the Opening Day starting center fielder. He is probably not a Gold Glove winner, but he is the best defensive option on the 40-man roster.

The questions surrounding Pederson are actually offensive, despite his incredible 2014 season in Triple-A. He struck out a lot in the high minors, and the length of his stay in the major leagues will depend on his ability to put the ball in play consistently.

Yasiel Puig, RF

Puig is the best position player on this team. A marvel with the bat—his career 147 wRC+ ranks 11th over the past two years—and the glove—his penchant for highlight-reel plays is well-known—he is an excellent player whose boneheaded plays occasionally overshadow his overall contributions.

Bench

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IF Justin Turner will play many positions for the Dodgers.

A.J. Ellis, C

The starting catcher for the last few years, Ellis will once again be relegated to backup duty now that Yasmani Grandal has arrived. After battling for years to earn a starting job, the 33-year-old carved out a nice three-year stint, but he is probably better suited to be a reserve option at this point.

Ellis can still draw walks and get on base, but he has virtually no power and is not regarded as a great defensive option by Baseball Prospectus' framing metrics.

Scott Van Slyke, OF

Van Slyke will play a huge role for the Dodgers this year. Given his impressive performance against lefties in 2014, he profiles as the right-handed half of a platoon somewhere. For the Dodgers’ sake, we should hope it is in left field. It could, however, be in center if Joc Pederson’s minor league hitting woes follow him into the majors. Van Slyke represents a safety net at multiple positions.

Justin Turner, IF

Turner is the infield version of Van Slyke—not a good enough hitter to play every day, but competent enough to survive on a bench and with just enough defensive talent to be versatile.

Turner posted a 157 wRC+ in 2014, but that was boosted by an unsustainably high .404 BABIP. A safe assumption is that he will fall back toward his career marks, but even a league-average bat is fantastic for a backup infielder.

Chris Heisey, OF

Heisey is essentially the same as Van Slyke. He is a right-handed outfielder who can kind of play center field, but I expect the Dodgers to carry both because of the uncertainty surrounding Joc Pederson.

One might logically assume that a well-built roster would not need this sort of redundancy, but such a decision would not surprise me. Given the way Don Mattingly platooned Crawford and Van Slyke in 2014, he clearly recognizes the need for a right-handed left field option—so carrying two gives him the option of also aiding Pederson.

Darwin Barney, SS

Following the offseason trade of Miguel Rojas and the release of Erisbel Arruebarrena, Barney is the best defensive shortstop on the 40-man roster (except, perhaps, for Jimmy Rollins, which is a breath of fresh air for Dodger fans given the recent Hanley Ramirez experience). His inclusion on the roster would not be a surprise.

It would, however, mean that Alex Guerrero does not make the team, and that is significant because his contract has a clause that states that if he is not on the Opening Day roster, he can become a free agent.

Because of that, I believe the Dodgers will do what they can to keep him, but it is tough to see a spot. The easiest suggestion is that he be kept at the expense of one of the right-handed outfielders, but I have made my case for taking both above.

Essentially, I believe that this front office does not value Guerrero as anything more than a bench bat.

The other notable exclusion from this section is Andre Ethier, and that is simply because I believe he will be traded before Opening Day. I have no particular sources to cite—this is simply my belief based on the roster construction.

With Pederson and Crawford, the Dodgers already have two left-handed-hitting outfielders. Ethier is unnecessary. If general manager Farhan Zaidi had already received a good offer, the trade would have been completed. Eventually, though, I believe they will simply have no other recourse, and a trade will be necessary.

Rotation

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Clayton Kershaw (left) and Zack Greinke (right) will anchor a talented pitching staff.

Clayton Kershaw, LHP

Two Cy Young Awards in three years speaks for itself, as does this leaderboard. Kershaw is awesome. He’s the best pitcher in baseball, and he will be the ace of this staff.

Zack Greinke, RHP

Greinke is one of the best No. 2 pitchers in baseball. Over the last three years, he ranks seventh in baseball in ERA, and he is still just 31 years old.

After he won the Cy Young Award with Kansas City in 2009, he developed a reputation for underperformance because his FIP was always better than his ERA. Since he came to Los Angeles, though, that trend has reversed itself, and he has reverted to his dominant self.

The question surrounding Greinke all season will be his contract status: He can opt out after this season. That, though, should have no bearing on his on-field performance.

Hyun-jin Ryu, LHP

An argument exists that Ryu is better than Greinke. I don’t buy it because of the lefty’s lack of a track record (he’s thrown just 344 career innings), but Ryu has been excellent.

This leaderboard from the past two years shows that Ryu has had a better FIP over that time. When healthy, he has proven to be one of the top pitchers in the game. In fact, he compares favorably to Madison Bumgarner.

Brandon McCarthy, RHP

McCarthy is another new addition, and he will be a relatively high-upside fourth starter. He is already 31 years old, but he has improved over the years.

McCarthy struggled in the first half of his career, but he posted a FIP under 4.00 for the last few years. The big question, though, is his health. Last season was the first in which he threw 200 innings.

Brett Anderson, LHP

A $10 million flier, Anderson represents an even bigger injury risk than does McCarthy. His career high in innings is 175, and that came in 2009. In fact, he hasn’t even broken 50 innings since 2011.

The Dodgers are searching for his upside, though, and that might still exist: Both his FIP and ERA were under 3.00 last year. If he is relatively healthy and pitches well, the team has a bargain. If he’s not, then $10 million is a drop in the bucket for a team with a payroll well over $200 million.

Bullpen

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Brandon League is one of the few certainties in the Dodger bullpen.

Joel Peralta, RHP

Peralta is a veteran reliever who will be 39 years old on Opening Day, but he is still relatively productive. He has posted a FIP below 4.00 for each of the last five seasons, and that is indicative of his solid but unspectacular performance.

He is a reliable veteran pitcher who will be relied upon for the seventh or eighth inning in normal times but might be asked to take on a larger role during Kenley Jansen’s absence.

Juan Nicasio, RHP

If this name is familiar, it’s because Nicasio was a starter for the Rockies for the past few years. Now, though, he’s with the Dodgers, and he is expected to be a long reliever in Don Mattingly’s bullpen.

It’s difficult to tell exactly how the transition to the bullpen will affect him, but the hope has to be that his strikeout rates return to where they were at the beginning of his career.

J.P. Howell, LHP

Howell is one of the few locks to make the bullpen out of spring training. He has been a reliable member of the team for the past two seasons, and it is hard to imagine a better stretch than those years: 2.19 ERA, 8.3 strikeouts per nine and a 1.09 WHIP.

His rough September does not bode well, but he probably won’t be that bad again. Instead, expect some slight regression back toward his career numbers (3.96 ERA).

Brandon League, RHP

League is essentially a righty specialist, but he’s excellent at his role. His 2.57 ERA in 2014 was quite good, and it was a reversal of his terrible 2013. It was, however, more in line with his career numbers. He has historically been better against righties, and his career 3.65 ERA is closer to his current performance than that 2013 anomaly is.

Pedro Baez, RHP

Baez is a young right-handed reliever who may finally get his shot to stick in the big leagues this year. He is a converted third baseman who has only been pitching for two years, but he was actually reasonably good in his short big league stint last year. His 2.63 ERA oversells his performance, but a 3.88 FIP is not terrible given his age and experience level.

Paco Rodriguez, LHP

After being one of the team’s best relievers in 2013, Rodriguez made just 19 appearances in 2014. During that short time, though, he was as good as he was in the past couple of years. His career 3.05 FIP is remarkable, and if he can reach that level in 2015, he will be an extremely valuable member of the Dodger bullpen.

Yimi Garcia, RHP

This is almost assuredly Kenley Jansen’s spot, but he will be on the disabled list for the next two months. So because of that, I believe Garcia will get a shot to be on the big league roster for a while.

He was a minor league closer in 2012 and 2013, and he has a career 11.0 K/9 and a 3.96 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minor leagues. He has an accomplished track record, and I believe the Dodgers will give him a chance to prove himself in April.