What Big Spring from Kris Bryant Would Mean to Cubs' 2015 Playoff Hopes

One way or another, Kris Bryant figures to be part of a promising 2015 season for the Chicago Cubs.

But given the kind of talent the third base super prospect possesses, you can also figure that the more Bryant plays in 2015, the more promising the Cubs' season will be. And relevant to what's happening this week, he could make this happen if he has a big spring.

Starting Thursday, the Cubs are poised to get a good look at Bryant during the exhibition season. And while there's a chance he could disappoint, he probably won't. With a 1.095 OPS and 52 home runs in his minor league track record, the 2013 draft's No. 2 overall pick hasn't been in the habit of disappointing.

Here's a question: If Bryant continues to be his usual self in spring training, how might it effect the timeline for his promotion to the majors?

Ideally, it would mean a spot on the Cubs' Opening Day roster. Only Mike Olt is standing between Bryant and the team's starting gig at third base, after all, and club boss Theo Epstein recently told Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago that "anyone in camp can make the team."

Don't get too carried away with this possibility, though. More than likely, Bryant will start the season in the minors.

Despite what Epstein said, he and the rest of the Cubs brass have often refused to promise Bryant anything. Indeed, they've been coy about the possibility of him being on the roster when the Cubs open 2015 on April 5 at Wrigley Field.

Case in point, here's the latest from Cubs skipper Joe Maddon, via MLB.com's Carrie Muskat:

When the Cubs front office has bothered to elaborate, the company line is that Bryant is still a work in progress.

“He’s certainly got a lot to work on,” general manager Jed Hoyer told Mooney last week. “He’s only had one full (professional) season and that was five-months long. His defense is the biggest thing. We talk a lot about his progression defensively and certainly that’s the area of the game that needs the most work. He had a great offensive season. There are things that can improve.”

While this is Chicago's public stance, it's no secret that there's another layer to this situation: Bryant's service time. If the Cubs delay his debut, they stand to gain an extra year of club control. And in their defense, that's pretty good incentive.

It's not all bad, however. Bleacher Nation's Brett Taylor dove into the service time rules last October and noted that Bryant would only have to be held back for 12 days to April 17 before the Cubs gain that coveted extra year of control. 

So, here's a fair assumption to make: If a big spring from Bryant doesn't convince the Cubs to break camp with him at third base, it could be what convinces them to promote him as soon as that extra year of control is in the bag. 

Either way, a big spring could be what ensures that Bryant is in the big leagues more or less from the get-go this season. And if that's what happens, it could be what puts the Cubs in October.

Given that the Cubs have lost at least 87 games five years in a row, maybe you're not buying them as a contender for 2015.

But it's hardly a far-fetched idea. Thanks in part to the promotions of some of their top talents, the Cubs finished 2014 with a respectable 33-35 second-half record. They then proceeded to augment that team by hiring Maddon and adding Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Dexter Fowler and Miguel Montero.

To be sure, thinking of the Cubs as one of baseball's 10 best teams—looking at you, Jonah Keri of Grantland—is a stretch. But thinking of them as at least a National League wild-card contender is not.

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections predict the Cubs to win 83 games, and FanGraphs projects them to win 84 games. Both projections put them within shouting distance of the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central race, and very much among the contenders for the National League's two wild-card spots.

Bryant is projected to play a part. But according to his specific projections, he won't be too involved:

Source	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	WAR
PECOTA	394	23	6	.260	.351	.515	.866	3.9
FanGraphs	420	22	6	.258	.336	.499	.835	3.1

Given that Bryant has yet to crack the majors, one takeaway is that the projections are quite optimistic about him. Numbers such as these could make him one of MLB's 10 best third basemen, as FanGraphs shows only 14 third basemen made it into the 3-4 WAR range in 2014.

But the other takeaway is that neither projection system is anticipating Bryant to get the kind of playing time he's likely to earn with a big spring. If he's up on Opening Day or a couple weeks afterward, he's going to get more like 600-ish plate appearances rather than 400-ish.

It's hard to figure exactly what an extra 200-ish plate appearances would mean for Bryant, but we can do some rough math. If the projections are on the money, those extra plate appearances could push him from the 20-25 homer range to the 25-30 homer range. They could also push him from the 3-4 WAR range to the 4-5 WAR range, a mark reached by only seven third basemen last year.

And for the Cubs, the result might be an extra win or two. In the eyes of both projection systems we looked at, that would push the Cubs closer to the NL Central title and potentially ahead of all other NL wild-card contenders.

This is the gospel according to the projections, anyway. But even if we back up and look at things in a more practical light, it's still possible to make a fuss over Bryant's potential impact.

You certainly don't need projections to get an optimistic viewpoint for Bryant's 2015 season. Nick J. Faleris of Baseball Prospectus is counting on him to be a "legit threat from day one." ESPN.com's Keith Law rated Bryant as his No. 1 impact prospect for 2015, writing:

"

Bryant probably won't head north with the Cubs on April 5, but he'll be at Wrigley Field maybe two weeks later as the Cubs look to push off his eventual free agency by a year. He's my pick right now to win NL Rookie of the Year, likely to hit 20-plus homers and get on base at a strong clip even with a strikeout rate that will probably top 25 percent.

"

There's also how Bryant figures to fit on the Cubs if he indeed lives up to the hype in 2015.

Right now, the Cubs lineup figures to be led by Dexter Fowler, followed by Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo and fellow top prospect Jorge Soler. That's a solid top four, as Fowler, Castro and Rizzo are above-average hitters, and Soler looks like a guy who has the goods to produce power.

But if you add Bryant, a solid top four becomes an even better top five. Factor in how Montero figures to be a decent No. 6 hitter, and the Cubs lineup would be pretty light on easy outs. And that's without even getting into what could happen if Javier Baez and/or Arismendy Alcantara cut down on their whiffs.

Even better, this lineup won't necessarily have to carry the Cubs. They figure to have a solid rotation with Lester, Hammel and 2014 breakout star Jake Arrieta leading the way. And though it doesn't look especially sexy at first glance, Sahadev Sharma of Baseball Prospectus and August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs can vouch that the Cubs bullpen has achieved Ben Zobrist levels of underrated-ness. 

So, in a nutshell: If you look at the Cubs and factor in roughly a full season of Kris Bryant, you're looking at a team that has everything it needs to be a contender.

The odds of this happening are good enough as things stand now, as Bryant's minor league track record practically shouts that he has nothing left to prove in the minors. But if he has a big spring, the Cubs are will have yet another excuse to get him to the majors sooner rather than later.

For them, he's not just the guy everyone wants to see. He could also get them started on the path to October.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.

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