Power Ranking the Formula 1 Teams After 3rd Pre-Season Test in Barcelona
The start of the 2015 Formula One season is less than two weeks away, and the data from the final test suggests Mercedes look to have retained their edge over the competition.
With an apparent advantage similar to that which they enjoyed at the end of 2014, it's likely Lewis Hamilton or Nico Rosberg will be occupying the top two steps of the podium on March 15.
The identity of the driver on the third step is harder to predict.
Williams look very strong, as do Ferrari. Red Bull appear a little bit behind, but last season taught us to never write them off. McLaren could come out of nowhere to join the party, or maybe Lotus will do as they did in 2013 and do far better than anticipated.
We won't know for sure where each team is until we've seen them together on the same piece of race track, at the same time, doing the same thing.
But pre-season testing can give us a few clues. As our long wait for the season to start enters its final phases, here's how the teams rank based on what we saw in across the three tests.
Note on Power Rankings
F1 power rankings ignore the points table (when one exists) and instead present a snapshot of where each team currently stand in relation to their competitors based on reliability, qualifying and race pace.
During testing, we look at apparent speed and reliability, and the rankings are created based on where each team would finish if there was a race immediately after the test. Teams less likely to manage the distance are, of course, ranked lower.
All position changes are relative to those in the previous set of rankings, which you can find here.
10. Manor
1 of 10
No Change
Manor's return to the grid has edged a little closer. They have an engine supplier in Ferrari, a driver in Will Stevens and a spot on the latest edition of the official entry list.
All they need now is a car.
Per Autosport, the team are initially working on modifying their 2014 car to comply with the new regulations. A bespoke 2015 design is planned to appear later in the year.
They remain 10th for now.
9. McLaren
2 of 10
Down One
McLaren had their most successful test of the winter in Catalunya, largely thanks to an impressive Day 2.
From out of nowhere, the car ran like something approaching a dream. Jenson Button put 101 laps on the board and the team even had time for a practice pit stop or two.
"Some live pitstop action as the MP4-30 takes its 100th lap. pic.twitter.com/WxLgkKrhgD
— McLaren (@McLarenF1) February 27, 2015"
Unfortunately, the other days were not so good. Multiple Honda-related issues led to just seven laps on the first day, 39 on the third and 30 on the fourth. This gave McLaren a third test total of 177—by far the fewest of any team.
The pace of the car is probably very good. Kevin Magnussen's Day 3 time of one minute, 25.225 seconds was the MP4-30's best. Set on the soft tyres, it was 2.2 seconds slower than Lewis Hamilton managed for Mercedes on the same day.
The engine won't have been running at full beans, the team aren't likely to have found a perfect setup, Magnussen hardly had any track time and Hamilton is the quicker driver. A gap of 2.2 seconds isn't huge in those circumstances.
But when we're talking about a race, it doesn't matter how quick you might be able to do one lap. The most important thing is getting to the end—and it's very difficult to see either McLaren doing that in Australia.
They drop to ninth.
8. Force India
3 of 10
Up One
Force India finally gave their new VJM08 an airing at the third test. It rolled out of the garage just before lunch on Day 2 with Nico Hulkenberg at the wheel.
"The VJM08 heads out for its first instal lap! #FeelTheForce pic.twitter.com/tLXztoBhhW
— Sahara Force India (@ForceIndiaF1) February 27, 2015"
In the two and a half days which remained, the car clocked up a remarkable 365 laps. Nico Hulkenberg did 235 of those and set a time of 1:24.939—slower than everyone bar McLaren. For comparison, Sauber managed a lap almost a second quicker...but had been testing it nine more days.
Force India are at least a couple of races away from getting the car operating at its full potential and are not likely to be near the front of the battle for minor points in Melbourne.
But at least the car looks capable of getting to the chequered flag—more than can be said for the teams behind.
They go up a spot to eighth.
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7. Sauber
4 of 10
No Change
Sauber have made steps forward over the winter and are unlikely to endure another painful, pointless season.
Their Ferrari engine looks to be the most-improved power unit of the bunch, and the C33 chassis looks solid if not groundbreaking. The team's best lap of the third test was a 1:24.023, set by Felipe Nasr on the supersoft tyres.
That was good enough to make them fourth-fastest, and they also piled on the kilometres.
"We ran an overall mileage of 5708 km, second highest done by any of the teams during testing: http://t.co/ZkP6fyeTRk pic.twitter.com/PrNE2KW0ZX
— Sauber F1 Team (@SauberF1Team) March 1, 2015"
In the real world, they're not fourth-fastest—Nasr's quick lap was set on Day 4 of the final test, which saw the best track conditions of the week, and at least one team behind them didn't do a qualifying simulation.
But reliability looks excellent, and they're very, very close to the cars ahead.
Sauber stay seventh.
6. Toro Rosso
5 of 10
No Change
Toro Rosso are another team to have made a decent step forward since the end of 2014.
They arrived at the final test with a substantially different aerodynamic package. The nose was shorter, the airbox was sleeker and both front and rear wings had acquired more detail.
"While teams often bring updates to the final test, @ToroRossoSpy have made radical changes including a new nose #F1 pic.twitter.com/wg4hPe6Vpp
— Formula1.com (@F1) February 26, 2015"
Toro Rosso are difficult to place—the impression is the chassis is better than that of Lotus, but the engine isn't in the same league. Per Autosport, Renault head of track operations Remi Taffin admits there is still plenty of work to do.
At the launch of the STR10, team principal Franz Tost was clear about his goal—fifth in the championship.
If Renault can find improvements, they could well steam ahead and achieve that, but for now they're sixth.
5. Lotus
6 of 10
No Change
Lotus had a season to forget last year, but signs from winter testing suggest they, like all the midfield, have made something of a step forward.
This is especially clear in the lap count—Lotus did 4,230 kilometres during the 2015 pre-season, more than three times the distance they managed before 2014 kicked off.
Romain Grosjean set the team's quickest lap of the test, a time of 1:24.200. But this was just over a tenth slower than his best from the second test; teams rarely go backward during testing, so it would be wise to believe they could have gone quicker.
After driving the car on Day 1, the Frenchman told the press (h/t crash.net):
"This car suits me a lot more this year and every time I ask something different from it, it goes in the right direction.
It is a very different car from last year. The chassis is giving us much more feedback than last year and reacts very well to our changes which is good. The power unit has one year of experience so it certainly helps in the car and it has been very different than last year.
We feel every change we do, whether it is mechanical balance or if it is aerodynamic balance. Everything feels good compared to last year and we are very happy that things are going in the right direction.
"
Lotus are in a tight scrap with Toro Rosso and Sauber. At this stage, they look to be ahead by a nose, largely due to their Mercedes engine.
A return to the glory days of 2012 and 2013 is out of the question this year, but frequent, solid points-finishes are likely.
Lotus stay fifth.
4. Red Bull
7 of 10
No Change
Red Bull's primary target over the winter will have been to close the gap to Mercedes. Unfortunately for them, they don't appear to have done that at this stage—in pace or reliability.
The Austrian team did 4,352 kilometres during the pre-season, around a third fewer than Mercedes.
We didn't get to see the single-lap pace of the RB11 in Spain because the team chose not to do qualifying simulations. Red Bull's best Catalunya lap was set by Daniel Ricciardo on the soft tyres at the second test—1:24.574.
However, Ricciardo did do some race simulations. Handily, one of them was at the second test, at the same time as Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton—per BBC Sport's Andrew Benson, the Red Bull was around eight-tenths of a second per lap slower.
The chassis itself looks the part and is likely a match for anything on the grid; the issue for the team, as it was in 2014, is the Renault engine. Per F1news.ru (h/t f1today.net for English translation), Renault head of track operations Remi Taffin admits the French manufacturer is "still behind in terms of performance and reliability."
Last year's second-placed team look no quicker than Ferrari and Williams. This could be inaccurate as the lack of a qualifying simulation can only be seen as a deliberate attempt to conceal their speed.
In Australia, they could be as high as second.
But based on the testing data and neutral comments coming out of the team, Red Bull remain fourth for now.
3. Ferrari
8 of 10
Down One
Ferrari will start the season with a sense of optimism not seen in Maranello for many years.
Can they match Mercedes? No. But the scrap for best of the rest is wide open, and the Scuderia are very much in the mix.
Kimi Raikkonen set the team's best lap on the third day of the final test. His 1:23.276 put him level with Felipe Massa's best on the same day for Williams. On the final day, Valtteri Bottas was four-tenths quicker than Sebastian Vettel.
This suggests Williams have a slight advantage over a single lap, and race simulation data crunched by James Allen and Dominic Harlow indicates this remains in place on longer runs.
Ferrari have made significant gains on both the chassis and engine side. It's extremely tough to separate them and Williams; in testing, differences in the tenths don't really mean anything.
But in the absence of alternative data to split the two, we have to take them into account.
They fall a spot to second.
2. Williams
9 of 10
Up One
Williams ended 2014 on a par with Red Bull as the second-quickest team. Evidence from testing suggests the team have at the very least maintained that position—no mean feat given their relatively modest budget.
Valtteri Bottas' time of 1:23.063 was the fastest non-Mercedes lap seen in Catalunya, beating team-mate Felipe Massa and the Ferrari of Kimi Raikkonen by two-tenths of a second.
The Finn scored six podiums last year and is confident the team has again built him a good car.
".@ValtteriBottas The car we are taking to Melbourne is very competitive and should make for an interesting start to the season.
— WILLIAMS RACING (@WilliamsRacing) March 1, 2015"
It's difficult to see Williams taking the fight to Mercedes. The works team has far more money to spend and will always achieve superior power unit integration.
But the third spot on the Australian podium is up for grabs, and Williams are in pole position to take it.
They rise a place to second.
1. Mercedes
10 of 10
No Change
No surprises here.
Mercedes ended the third test with the double distinction of setting the quickest time and doing the most laps.
Nico Rosberg was the quickest of the team's drivers, setting a truly eye-opening time on Day 2 using the soft tyres.
"Just as I ask @MercedesAMGF1 when they are going to do a Quali sim, Boom 1:22:792 on the softs for @nico_rosberg
— Rachel Brookes (@RachelBrookesTV) February 27, 2015"
Lewis Hamilton was a few tenths slower on a cooler track the following day. No other team, even using the supersofts, could match the W06's speed. We therefore got the first of something we're likely to see a lot of in 2015—a Mercedes one-two on the timesheet.
All is not perfect—per Rosberg's comments reported by Sky Sports, the team don't seem entirely on top of setting up the car.
But if they can outclass the rest when it's not feeling right, just think what they'll do when it is.
Mercedes remain first.
Lap time and count data used throughout sourced from Formula1.com. Tyre compound data sourced from Petr Hlawiczka's excellent table.
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