Can Boom Herron Carry the Load as a Starting NFL Running Back?

The Indianapolis Colts need a starting running back.

I'm not dropping a Hot Take on anybody, right? This should be a fairly accepted point.

The Colts only have Trent Richardson and Zurlon Tipton returning from last year's team, and Richardson is a choice candidate to be released in the coming weeks.

Former fifth-round pick Vick Ballard is still under contract for one more season, but he is coming off of two consecutive season-ending leg injuries (ACL, Achilles) and shouldn't be considered more than a camp body at this point. Ballard is well-liked among the organization and fans, and everybody hopes he can make a full recovery, but from a team-building perspective it would be irresponsible to assume the team will get any production from him in 2015.

So, the Colts need to make significant additions for next season.

One popular option is to re-sign restricted free agent Dan Herron, who took over the starting role at the end of the 2014 season. The Colts could offer him qualifying offer (or tender) on the lowest tier, which would be about $1.528 million in 2015, according to Corry Joel of CBS Sports. A tender would give the Colts a chance to match any other team's offer to Herron in free agency, if he chose not to sign the offer right away.

Alternatively, the Colts could pass on tendering Herron and attempt to re-sign him to a deal, one likely worth less than the $1.5 million tender.

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There's a high chance Herron returns, given his contributions at the end of last season and the Colts' need for depth at the position. He didn't flash so much talent that teams will be scrambling to sign him in the offseason, and his best chance of success is to stay in Indianapolis where he's familiar with the system.

But if Herron comes back, what should his role be?

One line of thinking looks at Herron's production at the end of last season as more than enough from the running back position. Bring him back, maybe one other veteran or late-round pick and save the important assets for other holes.

Others still see Herron as primarily a backup, one who could suffice as depth but not as a primary back, or even a high-quality member of a committee.

The answer, as with everything, likely lies somewhere in between.

Production

To start, let's take a look at Herron's production while in Indianapolis last year, including a number of advanced metrics.

Stat	Rushing DVOA	Yds/Carry	Yds After Contact/Carry	PFF Grade
Herron	-2.8%	4.50	2.1	-1.6
Rank (among starters)	25th	16th	41st	29th
League Average	0.0%	4.19	2.3	+0.2

From a production standpoint, Herron was really average at best.

While Herron did have a fairly good yard-per-carry average, he was lower than both Ahmad Bradshaw and Donald Brown (2013). The rest of his advanced metrics linger below the "non-Richardson" backs as well, but remain around average or slightly below.

Some of it makes sense. Herron was productive but struggled with fumbles at times during the year, which hurts his DVOA, an advanced efficiency metric from Football Outsiders. His yards per carry after contact being low makes sense as well, Herron wasn't a particularly strong back, but he understood the Colts' system and had the quickness to take advantage of creases (we'll see some of this later).

As far as Herron's Pro Football Focus grade goes, it's important to note he had positive grades in both running and receiving, but was downgraded enough in blocking to bring the entire grade into the negatives.

That blocking part is important for finding his role in the Colts' offense, but do keep in mind he did a fairly good job as a runner and receiver.

As a receiver, Herron was fairly productive, especially in the postseason. Herron averaged 3.2 catches per game for just over 27 yards per game in the final six games of the regular season, but averaged nearly seven catches and over 42 yards per game in the postseason.

The Tape

There were a lot of positives for Herron on the field in 2014, especially when viewed in contrast to Trent Richardson. 

While Herron doesn't have Richardson's strength to break tackles, he has much better vision and the foot speed to take advantage of open creases. His acceleration to the next gear could have been better, and it likely would have gotten him a few more 10-15-yard gains, but his burst to go from stutter-step to sprinting worked well with his patience at the line.

Like Donald Brown in 2013, Herron didn't make things complicated: He ran to space. If there was an opening he saw, he went for it as quickly as possible.

Herron also had enough wiggle to him to avoid some defenders in space, although that wasn't necessarily his strong suit. And, as alluded to before, his strength isn't quite there and he often goes down at first contact.

To put it simply, Herron's limited most by his physical traits. While he does have that short-area burst that is so key to being an effective running back, he lacks the agility and cutting ability to really be an elusive back. Many would assume Herron was the most elusive back in the Colts' rotation last year because he fit the stereotypical profile, but Richardson and Bradshaw both proved to be tougher to take down (both running the ball and in space out of the backfield).

One thing Herron does do really well out of the backfield is run routes. The Colts split him outside as a receiver a few times in the playoffs, and Herron performed masterfully. He won't be transitioning to wide receiver any time soon, and I don't know how extensive his route tree really is, but he can run a pretty crisp dig (in) route.

As far as hands go, Herron is relatively reliable on short dump-offs and screen passes, but he did drop a couple key passes further down the field against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.

So, here's what we have in Herron: a versatile back with knowledge of the playbook and a positive history with the team. But what role can he play? He isn't strong enough between the tackles and isn't secure enough with the ball to carry the load as the No. 1 runner. He's not elusive enough in space or stout enough in pass protection to be an optimal receiving/third-down back.

What he is, is great depth, especially in a pass-first offense that will see a lot of six-man boxes. Herron can get you what's there, whether it's on a screen pass or a power run. He's a great piece to have, but not as a featured piece. He's the ideal third back, in my mind.

That versatility is incredibly valuable, because if you do lose your No. 1 runner, he can take carries and still be effective. If the scatback goes down, he can contribute in the passing game. If both go down, Herron can fill both those roles and play a large percentage of snaps, as he did in the 2014 playoffs.

So, yes, bring Herron back and let him compete with the other backs in camp, and save a spot for him on next year's roster somewhere. But don't pass up an opportunity to upgrade the position, especially in a 2015 draft that is loaded with talent at running back.