Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: Super-Early Expert Picks

For six years, Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather have starred in a tragedy, a tale of two egos too big to see the obvious. It's the story of elite fighters abandoning their obligation to themselves, each other and the sport they love. Disputes over drug testing, money and merit flooded the media on a routine basis.

Since 2009, the two have been both the biggest names and the best fighters in a sport that desperately needed a hit to sustain it, at least in the eyes of the mainstream. Whether you were Team Mayweather or Team Pacquiao, everyone agreed that these were the best fighters in the business. That they couldn't come together to render the debate moot made boxing the laughingstock of the sports world.

As time passed and both men approached their 40s, primes long left to history, it appeared it would never happen. Every time it looked to be close, every time fight fans dared to dream, the rug would be pulled violently from beneath our feet.

Again and again, we've been forced to accept lesser fights, knowing that the two best fighters in the world occupied the same weight class, sport and planet yet refused to meet in the ring.

All of that disappointment and acrimony, however, was washed away with the announcement that the fight would, finally, take place May 2 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. 

None of that matters now. The past is suddenly, shockingly, irrelevant. All that matters is the contest, two men, still among the world's best, settling their score the old-fashioned way. Money, vanity and trash talk all disappear when the bell rings.

That's when actions will speak, their voice clear and authoritative. This isn't a dispute for the newspapers, blogs or podcasts that will discuss it to death over the next three months. Each fighter will present his case with his fists. May the better man win.

As always, our expert team of boxing analysts has taken a stab at predicting what will happen in the ring that night. We'll each pick a winner and attempt to justify it. Disagree? Give us your best guess in the comments.

Lyle Fitzsimmons

Al Bello/Getty Images

Who Wins the Fight? When and How?

This has been and remains Mayweather's fight, simply because the skills he brings to the ring effectively blunt the ones Manny possesses. The best man Pacquiao has met—Juan Manuel Marquez—bedeviled him with an ability to remain in the pocket, elude heavy shots and reply with precise counters.

Floyd has built a long career around playing defense and tagging foes with precision, and the idea that he’s bent on leaving an impression in this one goes without saying. He’ll incrementally chop the Filipino down and leave him unable to continue midway through the 10th round.

Will the Fight Live up to the Hype?        

Yes. But whether the actual in-ring action is of Marvin Hagler-Tommy Hearns vintage is really immaterial.

Just the sight of Mayweather and Pacquiao inside the ropes together will prompt the sort of breathless anticipation that’s reserved for only the highest of high-level fights, and that fuel will carry over and through whatever lulls might occur.

There shouldn’t be too many, though, because the opposing bull/matador styles—not to mention the Jimmy Lennon Jr./Michael Buffer and Mayweather Sr./Freddie Roach dynamics—seem perfectly suited to yield a night of high drama.

The Moment We’ll Remember the Most Is...    

The entire lead-up to the first punch. You’ll hear it in voices. You’ll see it on faces. You’ll be able to slice it in those fleeting few seconds between introductions and the opening bell. It’s the “heightened sense of being” that Ralph Wiley used to describe Sugar Ray Leonard-Thomas Hearns I. And that weeping sound you’ll hear right then? That will be UFC president Dana White.

Who Will Be with Floyd During His Entrance?   

No disrespect to Lil Wayne, but an event of this magnitude calls for a step up from what’s become the typical Mayweather ring walk. The guess here is he summons Kanye West to do his musical bidding and perhaps even dispatches Kim’s husband to snatch Manny’s title belt during the introductions.

What Will Be Next for Floyd?

He’ll have the chance at another fight on the Showtime contract, but if he indeed gets the win over Manny in the biggest event of all time, it says here that Money cashes in his chips for good and retires.

What Will Be Next for Manny?

Should he beat Mayweather, it’d be easy to imagine Pacquiao wrapping up his career as well. But his quitting after a loss seems less likely, so how about a slide back down to the 140-pound environs for a Top Rank extravaganza in which he helps put Terence Crawford over into the mainstream.

Kelsey McCarson

Chris Hyde/Getty Images

Who Wins the Fight? When and How?

Most people will tell you Mayweather will easily defeat Pacquiao because he's a great counterpuncher like Juan Manuel Marquez, except that he's bigger, faster and better at it.

All that may be true, but Mayweather and Marquez fight with different styles. Marquez takes risks in fights that Mayweather would never dream of taking. In fact, in Marquez's knockout win over Pac-Man in their last fight, Marquez was only able to land the winning blow because he had the foolhardy gumption to stay in the pocket for so very long.

Mayweather doesn't have that. He's content to move and counter his way to decision wins. But the aging great's legs aren't what they used to be, and Pacquiao's volume punching will give him the nod on at least two of the judges' scorecards. Mark me down for being one of the few out there who say Pacquiao will defeat Mayweather by decision. 

Will the Fight Live up to the Hype?

Mayweather-Pacquiao is a great fight, but it's not what it could have been had the fight happened five years ago. Back then, Mayweather and Pacquiao were both at their peaks as prizefighters, and they were both already the top superstars in the sport. Only the latter is still true, but the two fighters' styles mesh in such a way that the bout will likely be interesting for those who already watch boxing.

But for your mainstream friends, the ones who will beg their way over to your house on May 2 so they can watch the PPV with you instead of buying it on their own, the bout will probably not quite live up to what they'd hoped for. But don't blame Mayweather and Pacquiao. They're two of the best ever to lace up boxing gloves. The fight will be excellent for those who know what they're looking at. It will live up to the hype for boxing fans.

The Moment We’ll Remember the Most Is...

I think the moment most people will remember most is when it hits them that Pacquiao is actually faster than Mayweather. It's happened before. Zab Judah was the better athlete than Mayweather when the two fought back in 2006. Mayweather resorted to walking Judah down after the early rounds to take home the decision win. Can he do the same versus Pacquiao? I'm betting he can't.

Who Will Be with Floyd During His Entrance?

I honestly don't understand why we care who comes with Floyd to what. I'm sure it will be some big celebrity who makes him look and feel important on the way to the ring. Mayweather is the type who needs to feel adored by people, and nothing helps him feel more adored than being seen with celebrities.

To his credit, Mayweather knows none of that matters when the bell rings, and that's why he's been so successful as a fighter. But who comes with him this time? Let's say he has Taylor Swift and Kanye West on either side of him. He'll leave with neither.

What Will Be Next for Floyd?

Rematch! I think Mayweather and Pacquiao will fight a total of three times. After Pacquiao picks up the first win, the two will do it again in September at the very same venue.

What Will Be Next for Manny? 

Pacquiao would be wise to force a rematch with Mayweather at a different venue. If he actually manages the upset, he could try to lure Mayweather over to Macau for the fight or somewhere like that. But Pacquiao will probably defer those things to Mayweather and end up fighting again on his terms.

Kevin McRae

Al Bello/Getty Images

Who Wins the Fight? When and How?

Floyd Mayweather might have looked a tad slower and less reactive in his two fights with Marcos Maidana, but he’s still got the legs, defensive acumen and counterpunching to shred Manny Pacquiao by turning his offense against him.

Mayweather is his generation’s master tactician, and he's one of the best defensive counterpunchers in boxing history. He’ll control the fight from the outside, ducking and dodging Pacquiao’s offense and making him pay with heavy leather in return. That will lead him to either a late corner stoppage or unanimous-decision victory.

Will the Fight Live up to the Hype?

Is this even possible? The question is almost unfair on its face. Can any fight live up to six-plus years of hope, hype, frustration and finally elation after it comes to fruition? Good luck, Mr. Mayweather, and good luck, Mr. Pacquiao, because you’ve created a monster.

You can already see the Debbie Downers downplaying the fight. "Shoulda happened six years ago," they say. And yes, it should’ve, but it didn’t. Fair or not, that shoulda, coulda, woulda stuff will always tarnish this fight and the result—particularly if Mayweather wins—for many fans.

The Moment We’ll Remember the Most Is…

The first time the two men share a ring together. Mayweather will enter second. He’ll step through the ropes with a cool, calm demeanor, shuffle past Pacquiao into his corner and we’ll know its real. You can pinch yourself all you want, but just seconds after that moment, the biggest fight in boxing history will begin.

Who Will Be with Floyd During His Entrance?

Mayweather will take this one pretty darn seriously, and you can expect that many of the theatrics and celebrity-laden entrances of the past will stay there and not accompany him on May 2. Floyd will enter with a small entourage that includes his father in the corner. No frills. No dramatics. Just business.

What Will Be Next for Floyd?

When the morning of May 3 dawns on the Las Vegas strip, Mayweather will still have one fight remaining on his contract with Showtime. But where do you go from here? If the fight is close, you could expect demand for a rematch—this contract is a one-fight deal—but if not? Maybe Miguel Cotto if the Puerto Rican is still around and holding a middleweight title in September.

What Will Be Next for Manny?

Pacquiao, even if he loses, can still make a decent amount of money fighting in Macau. But like Floyd, he’ll suffer from the every-possible-opponent-is-a-huge-letdown problem. Maybe he tries, once again, to coax longtime rival Juan Manuel Marquez into one final go or pursues rising star Terence Crawford? Because that sounds a whole lot better than Jessie Vargas.

Briggs Seekins

Issac Baldizon/Getty Images

Who Wins the Fight? When and How?  

This isn't the blockbuster it would have been four or five years ago. The Manny Pacquiao of 2010 had explosive power that made him a threat to any fighter. After he failed to put away Brandon Rios and Chris Algieri, both of whom he treated like punching bags, it's just not realistic to view him the same way we viewed him when he was stopping Oscar De La Hoya on his stool or dropping Ricky Hatton with a single punch. 

There are still intriguing tactical questions here, though. Pacquiao will definitely have the edge in activity level, and he has the potential to outhustle the defensive-minded Mayweather, who has also shown signs of aging in recent fights.

Pacquiao will be able to steal some early rounds due to his high punch rate. But Mayweather is a master of adjustment and a brilliantly accurate counterpuncher. Mayweather's best punch, the right-hand lead, should be an extremely effective weapon against an aggressive southpaw. Mayweather will win it going away by decision. A 116-112 score seems likely to me. 

Will the Fight Live up to the Hype?

Yes and no. There are some historical similarities here to Ray Leonard versus Marvin Hagler, another superfight that took place a half-decade later than it should have. That fight did not carry the excitement of either man's battles with Tommy Hearns. But it was still an extremely important fight in the historical sense, and for those of us old enough to remember, it remains a critical boxing memory. Mayweather-Pacquiao has the ability to be that kind of fight.  

But more casual fans hoping to see some sort of Arturo Gatti-Micky Ward back-and-forth war will very likely walk away calling the fight boring. Those who hate Mayweather aren't likely to be satisfied and will accuse him of "running." But for true boxing fans who appreciate both Mayweather and Pacquiao for what they've done in the sport, there will at least be satisfaction that the fight finally took place. 

The Moment We'll Remember the Most Is...

The most memorable moment will be when the referee calls the fighters and their head trainers into the center of the ring for the final instructions. It's going to be a bit surreal to finally see Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao eye-to-eye in the center of the ring, only seconds away from finally settling the endless debates in the ring.

I'm not saying there won't be some excitement in the actual fight that brings the crowd to its feet. But for iconic imagery, just watching them finally touch gloves is very likely going to be the takeaway moment. 

Who Will Be with Floyd During His Entrance?

We've had a lot of fun with this question over the past couple of years. Floyd is a master showman, and his walk-out moments have been their own mini events. But sometimes, subtlety is an important element in building drama, and Mayweather knows this.

His entrance for his rematch with Marcos Maidana last September was decidedly understated, as if to suggest that he was getting down to business. I actually expect the same thing this time around.

On the other hand, maybe an event this big will make him pull out all the stops. Don't forget that he bragged to Michael Eric Dyson in 2012 that he could get President Obama to join him. So I am still waiting to see that. 

What Will Be Next for Floyd?

If this fight ends in controversy or Manny Pacquiao wins, expect a rematch. There's too much money to be made to pass it up. Mayweather is going to cash in big on this fight, and with one fight left on his contract afterward, a rematch would make a ton of sense if there is a big demand for it.

If there isn't, it's unclear what will be left for him, aside from taking a stab at a middleweight belt. Miguel Cotto seems to be shut out of big fights for this spring, so unless he fights Gennady Golovkin this summer, which is doubtful, Cotto would likely welcome a fight with Mayweather next September. They'll say it's for the lineal middleweight crown, though it will be hard to respect that claim so long as GGG is still undefeated. 

What Will Be Next for Manny?

If Manny Pacquiao manages to win a close fight, or loses a controversial decision, he'll come back in the fall for a rematch with Mayweather. If he loses decisively, which I think he will, or wins by KO, which isn't impossible, it won't be a shock to see him retire.

Retirement will not likely be permanent, though. A guy with his lavish spending habits and genuine philanthropic impulses is exactly the kind of fighter who persists beyond his prime. But don't be surprised if this is the last time we see Pac-Man for a few years, and the last time we see him at anything resembling his best. 

Jonathan Snowden

Al Bello/Getty Images

Who Wins the Fight? When and How?

There are a lot of reasons not to like Floyd Mayweather, his history with women perhaps tops among them. But there is no denying his excellence in the ring. His reach and defensive genius will be too much for Pacquiao.

Mayweather will get caught here and there by his opponent's sheer speed and ferocity. But as the fight wears on, those moments will come less often. The fight will fall into a comfortable rhythm, with Manny searching desperately for an opening and Mayweather reaching out, touching him and then holding on for dear life. 

It won't be wholly satisfying. But it will be enough to earn Mayweather a decision and a truckload of cash. 

Will the Fight Live up to the Hype?

The moment the fight was signed, it lived up to the hype. Its mere existence is enough. Will it be a barnburner? Mayweather certainly hopes not. But simply taking on the challenge is more than enough to make this a worthy contest, sight unseen.

The Moment We'll Remember the Most Is...

Before a single punch is thrown, the two will meet in the middle of the ring. They'll look across at an equal, something neither man has seen much of in his career. Seeing them together will be enough to make goosebumps rise upon the skin. There's nothing quite like the promise of watching two artists attempt to grasp each other's essence just in time to smash it into pieces.

Who Will Be with Floyd During His Entrance?

I'm tempted to say, "Who cares?" Some clowns? A wrestling superstar? His children? His adopted son and protege, Justin Bieber? The world awaits. 

What Will Be Next for Floyd?

This fight is going to make everyone involved rich. Or, more accurately, richer. Unless it is a complete blowout, they'll run it back in September.

What Will be Next for Manny?

It will be hard to go back to the Chris Algieris of the world after a megafight like this one. Win or lose, his next fight should be a rematch with Mayweather.