English Premier League : Not As Predictable As Many Think

When Kevin Keegan took over as the manager of Newcastle United for the second time in his career, the Geordies thought that the glory days were back. They felt that "King Kev" will lead them back to the days when he challenged Sir Alex Ferguson with his infamous "I would love it if we beat them, love it!" rant.

As it turned out, his return to Newcastle wasn't as smooth as many thought it would be - I'm suspecting that he himself understands how tough it is only now.

That is probably why Kevin Keegan so masterfully stated a couple of weeks ago that the top four in the Premier League were out of reach - a claim which I am inclined to disagree with. Here's what he said :

“...The gulf is too big. During my time here – and I’ve got three years left – Newcastle will not be a Champions League club. That’s what I want to tell the fans, I don’t want to mislead them. We’ll try our best and if one of them (the top four) hits a brick wall and falls by the wayside and we can jump in there I’ll be delighted, but realistically it’s going to be tough."

I will agree about Newcastle not being good enough to be in the top four this season but, three years is an awfully long time in football. Just look at Everton and how consistent they have been for the past three seasons. They've not had all the money in the world and yet, they manage to get the results.

So, I guess it's possible that money is a mean and not the end of all things.

Even if you look at who spends more money on transfers - Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United have spent more than Arsenal in the past two seasons, and yet Arsenal have finished above them and belong to the "elite" top four.

The quality of the player, and not the amount spent on him determines his ability to do well in any league. Many teams in the EPL have a wreckless transfer policy which will get them into a lot of trouble and very little success in the long term.

The English Premier League is not as predictable as many think. The top four may possibly remain the same, but can anybody definitively pick out thier order? Can anybody say for sure who will get relegated?

No. It's impossible.

Let me take the example of my club, Arsenal. Everybody wrote us off as a top four club after the sale of Thierry Henry. But, we came back and fought for our place. Liverpool had to fight a very close battle with their rivals, Everton to claim the fourth spot at the end of this season. Even Aston Villa at some point in the season were fourth in the standings.

Yes, the top four do have a distinct advantage of playing Champions League football and getting more money through that avenue. But there is additional pressure to perform on all fronts rather than just focus on one competition. It also means more matches will be played by them every season. That can be a serious disadvantage to the top four and something that the remaining teams can exploit.

In my opinion, the top four deserve to be there on merit. It's not as if they've bought their way to be a top four team. Everton showed us a few years back that the top four can be broken into. Tottenham almost did it two seasons ago. The fact is that these teams haven't been able to sustain the same quality every year.

Whose fault is that?

Not many leagues in the world can boast of a title race and a relegation battle being decided on the last day. The title this year was almost decided on goal difference. The top three teams finished in excess of 80 points this season. The fight for sixth place also went down to the wire. Even Manchester City got a bonus place in the UEFA Cup owing to the Fair Play Award!

So, how on Earth can Kevin Keegan claim that the English Premier League is becoming boring? Whatever I've mentioned above is quite exciting. The quality of football in the English Premier League is fantastic too. The TRP ratings of the Arsenal vs Man Utd game worldwide were greater than the World Cup Final's (2006) ratings.

The grass is always greener on the other side. I'm sure that many people will look on with envy at the top four and say, "Wow.. we wish we were there". All I can tell those people is - stop wishing and start doing something. Manchester City, Portsmouth, Aston Villa and Everton are teams which can make it to the top four. They play good, consistent football and have good managers (even Sven, who I hope doesn't get sacked, still!)

The Premier League is one of the best, if not the best league in the world - be it in terms of excitement, quality or the competition. There's always some sort of sub-plot in every game which makes it very interesting to watch. Whoever feels that it's a bore is simply bitter that their team is not doing well enough.

As for "King" Kevin - if he is going to carry this defeatist attitude into the remaining three seasons of his contract, he might as well leave now.