Atlanta Braves: Chipper Jones Slugs Team to 20-20 Record

They say hindsight is 20-20. And so is the ratio of wins and losses the Atlanta Braves have accumulated after one-quarter of the season has flown by. Let’s take a look back on the first 40 games of the season, and also guess what is to come in the next 122.

What should we make of the Braves’ 20-20 record? One might interpret this record as simply neutral—nothing positive or negative—just well, .500 baseball.  But actually this Atlanta Braves team is underperforming. The Braves claim one of the better runs differentials in the league, with 39. With this kind of gap in runs, the Braves should be sitting on top of the division. Instead they are currently sitting in fourth place, three games behind the surprising Marlins.

The reason for this run differential can be directly contributed to the fact that they are winning games by a moderate amount and losing games by a very small margin. Thus it should come to no surprise that the Braves own the worst record in the majors in one-run games, at a staggering 1-11.

Perhaps the biggest disappointment for the Braves this year has been the condition of the pitching staff. With Mike Hampton yet to throw a major league pitch this season, an aging Tom Glavine having his first career stint on the disabled list, and John Smoltz falling from the starting role, the rotation has been left in shambles. Other than Tim Hudson (6-2), the only other real bright spot on the Braves rotation is the young Jair Jurrjens, acquired from Detroit in the offseason for Edgar Renteria.

Jair Jurrjens (4-3) leads the team in strikeouts, and has shown stuff that at times seems unhittable. With all the injuries, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Jeff Bennett have made several starts each for the Braves so far.

And oh, the Atlanta offense. Or should we call it the Chipper Jones Show?  Saying the Braves' third basemen has had a solid start to the season would still be a huge understatement. Jones leads all of baseball with 61 hits and an eye-popping .418 batting average.

Just how good is that mark? Well, the Braves' second-highest batting average belongs to shortstop Yunel Escobar, with a .313 average. That's over 100 points behind Mr. Jones. There has never been a doubt about the switch-hitter’s ability to swing the bat, but the real question is—can he stay healthy?

If Jones does stay healthy, he stands more than a legitimate chance at winning a batting title, and forming a solid case for an MVP consideration. Even with 11 home runs and 32 RBI to show for after 40 games, Chipper Jones is a long shot at winning the Triple Crown, which is leading the majors in homeruns, RBI, and batting average at the end of the season.

While his average is tops in the majors, he is currently fourth in home runs behind Dan Uggla (12) , Chase Utley  (14), and the league leader Lance Berkman (15). Lance Berkman also leads the majors with 43 runs, eleven more than Jones.

Even with Chipper’s torrid start to the 2008 season, the Braves offense is in need of improvement at certain positions. Atlanta’s clean up hitter, Mark Teixeira, is only hitting .247, but even worse, he is hitting .209 with runners in scoring position, and has struggled in any situation from the right side of plate, only hitting .218.

Braves fans can only hope he returns to his second-half form from 2007, in which he hit .317 with 17 homers in 54 games for Atlanta after being dealt from the Rangers. 

Other players such as Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur, Yunel Escobar, and Mark Kotsay continue to produce, but will they be enough to catch the Marlins? Other than Teixeira, the Braves must also get more production from second basemen Kelly Johnson, who has mainly served as the Braves’ leadoff hitter, and has walked just 14 times so far, only the fifth-highest total on the team.

Perhaps the Braves should consider giving Gregor Blanco a chance to start full-time in left field and hit leadoff. Blanco has just one less walk than Johnson in nearly half as many at bats and would provide the speed the Braves are lacking.

The Braves currently sit in fourth place in the NL East, but are only three games behind the Florida Marlins. Can the Braves win the division this year? It is still very early, but there are several things the Braves must do to give themselves a chance.

First, they must stay healthy. The Braves cannot afford to lose any more pitchers from their already mangled pitching staff. And it cannot be stressed enough—Chipper must stay healthy and in the starting lineup. The Braves also must get Teixeira hot. With the rapid rate that Chipper Jones is reaching base, the potential for RBI seems almost endless for the Braves' first basemen.

The Braves also must find a way to win on the road. Atlanta owns a dismal 6-16 record away from Turner Field.

And finally, the Braves must improve on their 9-12 division record. No team should expect to win their division with a losing record amongst their rivals. 

Even though only a quarter of the season has been played so far, it appears it is going to be a fight to the finish, all the way to the end of September in the very competitive NL East.