Ferrari Has Modest 2015 Expectations Despite Strong Showing at F1 Preseason Test
Ferrari are trying to temper expectations after a season of change and a successful first test for their new car.
The change began last April, when team principal Stefano Domenicali surprisingly stepped down, and culminated with Sebastian Vettel's arrival in Maranello and the replacement of Domenicali's replacement, Marco Mattiacci, with Maurizio Arrivabene.
Last week at the Jerez test, a Ferrari put in the fastest time on three of the four days. Predictably, this led to articles wondering whether Ferrari can catch Mercedes. Jerome Pugmire of The Associated Press even called Ferrari "an early front-runner to challenge for this year's Formula One championship."
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But Ferrari are not competing with Mercedes—not directly, anyway. Not this year.
After winning 16 of 19 races in 2014, Mercedes are gunning for another world championship. Ferrari, meanwhile, have set a more modest goal for 2015.
In a video interview for the launch of Ferrari's new car, the SF15-T, Arrivabene said, "I don't want to say that we are going to win the world championship but for sure we are committed at least to win two races."
Ferrari's last grand prix victory came nearly two years ago, in May of 2013, so it is easy to see why their fans are getting restless. And with the arrival of the four-time world champion Vettel, there is an obvious tendency to recall Michael Schumacher's arrival in 1996 and the glory years that followed.
But Schumacher's success with Ferrari was not instantaneous. The team did not win their first constructors' championship of the Schumacher era until 1999, his fourth season, and Schumacher's first drivers' title followed the year after.
Vettel likely faces a similar period of rebuilding before Ferrari can expect to challenge for championships again. If fans are looking through the prism of the Schumacher years to form their expectations for 2015, therefore, they will be disappointed.
The benchmark for Ferrari this season is not Ferrari in 2000, nor is it Mercedes in 2014. Their benchmark is Ferrari in 2014. Two victories would be a significant improvement over last year's form and a signal that all the moves over the last year have finally pointed the team in the right direction.
Vettel is only 27 years old, perhaps just approaching the peak years of his career. Better yet, he is hungry to prove his critics—who said he only won at Red Bull because he had the best car—wrong.
Before he was replaced by Arrivabene, Mattiacci told Sky Sports' Martin Brundle, "Now we are basically setting up a strategy that is going to be for the next three years and that is probably for sure going to see Ferrari go back to the top in Formula One and succeed."
It will take time, but Ferrari will return to the top. The team has too much money and has too many advantages over the other teams in the sport to stay down forever.
The problem is, Ferrari could significantly improve this season and still have almost nothing to show for it. That is how far ahead Mercedes are.
Anyone expecting Ferrari to compete with Mercedes this year is setting themselves up for disappointment. They may be on the same track, but they are not in the same race.
For now, the tifosi—Ferrari's devoted fans—will have to be content with hope and potential, rather than actual results.
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