2008 Fantasy Football Rookies: Running Backs!

By Steven Troxtell

This year’s draft did not really have a rookie who will jump off the board like last year’s RB Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson and/or WR Anthony Gonzalez. Still, with good research of the teams’ production last year and their advances this year, there will be a few that will jump off the charts as potential gems.

For fantasy owners in seasonal leagues, it might be too early for a rookie analysis, but for the keeper and/or dynasty league player, it is never too early to start looking for talent.

Below will be the top projected players at the running back position. Some should do well this year, while others might not have potential to make an impact. The draft pick (whether high or low) will have no bearing on the success of the rookie; the player’s drive, system, team philosophy and mentoring abilities that will surround the player after the draft that will.

For example, QB Tom Brady was a compensatory 33rd pick in the sixth round in 2000 and now has three Super Bowl rings, Peyton Manning was the No. 1 overall pick in 1998 and has one Super Bowl Ring (along with some astonishing numbers).

Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 was pick 11 in Round One behind Phillip Rivers and Eli Manning. He won a Super Bowl ring before Eli Manning.

2008 Impact Running Backs 

In recent years, the cut off for a first round score was 6’0” or better. Since the drafting of Maurice Jones-Drew in 2006, picked in the second round, 60th overall by Jacksonville, the first round stats have changed slightly. In this case there are only two players in this class of running backs that were 6’0” or better. The remaining prospects are all less than 6’0”. 

1. Rashard Mendenhall

Drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers at pick 23 in the first round, he brings to the Steelers what they have not had since Jerome Bettis when he took them to the Super Bowl in 2006. He will be Willie Parker’s backup in the backfield and will be the pounder to get those goal-line yards and wear down the defense.

This is indicative of the Steelers’ smash-mouth philosophy. In order to be successful the RB needs to have a solid OL and QB to be able to allow the running game to flourish. There is no doubt that Mendenhall will have that opportunity this year.

Rashard Mendenhall will produce immediately; the Steelers run a system that in certain situations will benefit both backs in their ability to gain a good chunk of yardage. The knock on Mendenhall is that he is not expected to produce the same amount of yardage that Willie Parker will collect. Only a few rookie RBs that have came in the NFL have produced 1000 yards or greater in the first year.

With Parker set at the RB position, it is illogical that Mendenhall would out produce him the first year. Mendenhall is a very good candidate to be drafted in the middle rounds due to his abilities to continue to get better every game.

2. Jonathan Stewart

Drafted by the Carolina Panthers at pick 13 in the first round, Stewart is another pounder who will wear down defenses and may bring something that the Panthers never had in a RB.

The Panthers solidified their O-Line with the drafting of OT Jeff Otah. With QB Jake Delhomme at the helm and WR Steve Smith stretching the field, there will be opportunities for Stewart to break off long runs this year. Stewart will back up DeAngelo Williams, but in certain situations Stewart will be able to be the lead runner as defenses focus on Williams and not on Stewart.
 
3. Matt Forte

Drafted by the Chicago Bears at pick 13 in the second round, Forte has a solid chance to be the starter this year with the injury to Cedric Benson. The Bears, like the Steelers, are a run-first offense and have an OL that is built for the running game.

The team does have questions with the QB situation and passing game. If the Bears are able to pull it all together, Forte might be in the running for Rookie of the Year. During college, he ran for over 2,100 yards on 472 carries, averaging 4.5 yards a carry. He also had over 700 yards in receiving.

With the right guidance from the Bears' coaching staff, Forte is a player that most fantasy owners need to focus on in the middle rounds as a potential diamond in the rough.

 
4. Felix Jones

Drafted by the Dallas Cowboys at pick 22 in the first round, Jones comes to a team in need of a player with speed, size and vision to run specific routes. In college, Jones was the backup to Darren McFadden but analysts believe Jones is more of a complete back.

The Cowboys have been a pass-first offense with stars like WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten, The need to take the pressure off QB Tony Romo will increase as the season progresses. Initially, Jones will back up Marion Barber in the backfield, but speculation is that Jones might have the opportunity to start by midseason.

 
5. Darren McFadden

Drafted by the Oakland Raiders at pick 4 in the first round, McFadden is a complete athlete with home-run ability. However, he comes to a team that has more holes than the clichéd Swiss cheese.

Rumors have circulated that McFadden will be used like Reggie Bush in both the slot as a receiver and in the backfield for running situations. The reason for placing him this low is that the Raiders OL and passing game is questionable at best and will be an issue for the entire season.

With the Raiders playing in the AFC West, they will play the teams in the AFC East and NFC South, which are heavy on the defensive side of the ball. McFadden may not be a candidate for Rookie of the Year if his production will not be on the same level as those on better offensive teams.

Rookie Running Backs With Potential

1. Kevin Smith

Drafted by the Detroit Lions at pick #1 in the third round, Smith has the potential to start for a team that could employ his skills. The tag on Smith is character, durability and unable to hit top-end speed as necessary at the NFL level. Smith is a player to watch during the season. If he can correct his deficiencies, he will be a value pick in the later rounds.

 
2. Jamaal Charles

Drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs at pick 10 in the third round, Charles has the size and skills but comes to a rebuilding team. Charles will back up Larry Johnson. As the season progresses and Charles is able to develop the strength and awareness to be an every-down back, he will be worth the wait. Monitor him closely and act quickly to snatch him off the waiver wire or even draft him as Johnson's handcuff in deeper leagues. 

 
3. Mike Hart

Drafted by the Indianapolis Colts at pick 36 in round 6, Hart was once a first round projection this year. Due to a poor workout, he fell to the Colts in the sixth round. The Colts employ a pass-first offense but with the abilities of Joseph Addai, Hart will be in the perfect situation to develop into an every-down back. This year might be a wash for Hart, but potential fantasy owners should make themselves aware of Hart’s progress.

 
4. Steve Slaton

Drafted by the Houston Texans at pick 26 in Round Three, Slaton comes to a team that is desperate for a running back who can hit the home run. With Head Coach Gary Kubiak coming from the Denver Broncos' organization that drafted Terrell Davis in the sixth round in 1995, Slaton is in the perfect situation to develop the running style necessary for an every-down back.

 
5. Tim Hightower

Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals at pick 14 in round 5, Hightower is a developmental project with a team that has Edgerrin James slowly moving out the door. The Cardinals have all the tools to have a solid run game and Hightower will be mentored under Ken Whisenhunt, who coached with the Pittsburgh Steelers during the Super Bowl run in 2005.

That team featured Jerome Bettis as the running back. Hightower will not be in the same league as Bettis was in 2005, but in time he will be able to develop the skills to replace James as the Cardinals' starter.

Steven Troxtell is a Fantasy columnist for Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com