By Steven Troxtell
This year’s draft did not really have a rookie who will jump off the board like last year’s RB Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson and/or WR Anthony Gonzalez. Still, with good research of the teams’ production last year and their advances this year, there will be a few that will jump off the charts as potential gems.
For fantasy owners in seasonal leagues, it might be too early for a rookie analysis, but for the keeper and/or dynasty league player, it is never too early to start looking for talent.
Below will be the top projected players at the running back position. Some should do well this year, while others might not have potential to make an impact. The draft pick (whether high or low) will have no bearing on the success of the rookie; the player’s drive, system, team philosophy and mentoring abilities that will surround the player after the draft that will.
For example, QB Tom Brady was a compensatory 33rd pick in the sixth round in 2000 and now has three Super Bowl rings, Peyton Manning was the No. 1 overall pick in 1998 and has one Super Bowl Ring (along with some astonishing numbers).
Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 was pick 11 in Round One behind Phillip Rivers and Eli Manning. He won a Super Bowl ring before Eli Manning.
2008 Impact Running Backs
In recent years, the cut off for a first round score was 6’0” or better. Since the drafting of Maurice Jones-Drew in 2006, picked in the second round, 60th overall by Jacksonville, the first round stats have changed slightly. In this case there are only two players in this class of running backs that were 6’0” or better. The remaining prospects are all less than 6’0”.
1. Rashard Mendenhall
Drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers at pick 23 in the first round, he brings to the Steelers what they have not had since Jerome Bettis when he took them to the Super Bowl in 2006. He will be Willie Parker’s backup in the backfield and will be the pounder to get those goal-line yards and wear down the defense.
This is indicative of the Steelers’ smash-mouth philosophy. In order to be successful the RB needs to have a solid OL and QB to be able to allow the running game to flourish. There is no doubt that Mendenhall will have that opportunity this year.
Rashard Mendenhall will produce immediately; the Steelers run a system that in certain situations will benefit both backs in their ability to gain a good chunk of yardage. The knock on Mendenhall is that he is not expected to produce the same amount of yardage that Willie Parker will collect. Only a few rookie RBs that have came in the NFL have produced 1000 yards or greater in the first year.
With Parker set at the RB position, it is illogical that Mendenhall would out produce him the first year. Mendenhall is a very good candidate to be drafted in the middle rounds due to his abilities to continue to get better every game.
2. Jonathan Stewart
Drafted by the Carolina Panthers at pick 13 in the first round, Stewart is another pounder who will wear down defenses and may bring something that the Panthers never had in a RB.
The Panthers solidified their O-Line with the drafting of OT Jeff Otah. With QB Jake Delhomme at the helm and WR Steve Smith stretching the field, there will be opportunities for Stewart to break off long runs this year. Stewart will back up DeAngelo Williams, but in certain situations Stewart will be able to be the lead runner as defenses focus on Williams and not on Stewart.
3. Matt Forte
Drafted by the Chicago Bears at pick 13 in the second round, Forte has a solid chance to be the starter this year with the injury to Cedric Benson. The Bears, like the Steelers, are a run-first offense and have an OL that is built for the running game.
The team does have questions with the QB situation and passing game. If the Bears are able to pull it all together, Forte might be in the running for Rookie of the Year. During college, he ran for over 2,100 yards on 472 carries, averaging 4.5 yards a carry. He also had over 700 yards in receiving.
With the right guidance from the Bears' coaching staff, Forte is a player that most fantasy owners need to focus on in the middle rounds as a potential diamond in the rough.
4. Felix Jones
Drafted by the Dallas Cowboys at pick 22 in the first round, Jones comes to a team in need of a player with speed, size and vision to run specific routes. In college, Jones was the backup to Darren McFadden but analysts believe Jones is more of a complete back.
The Cowboys have been a pass-first offense with stars like WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten, The need to take the pressure off QB Tony Romo will increase as the season progresses. Initially, Jones will back up Marion Barber in the backfield, but speculation is that Jones might have the opportunity to start by midseason.
5. Darren McFadden
Drafted by the Oakland Raiders at pick 4 in the first round, McFadden is a complete athlete with home-run ability. However, he comes to a team that has more holes than the clichéd Swiss cheese.
Rumors have circulated that McFadden will be used like Reggie Bush in both the slot as a receiver and in the backfield for running situations. The reason for placing him this low is that the Raiders OL and passing game is questionable at best and will be an issue for the entire season.
With the Raiders playing in the AFC West, they will play the teams in the AFC East and NFC South, which are heavy on the defensive side of the ball. McFadden may not be a candidate for Rookie of the Year if his production will not be on the same level as those on better offensive teams.
Rookie Running Backs With Potential
1. Kevin Smith
Drafted by the Detroit Lions at pick #1 in the third round, Smith has the potential to start for a team that could employ his skills. The tag on Smith is character, durability and unable to hit top-end speed as necessary at the NFL level. Smith is a player to watch during the season. If he can correct his deficiencies, he will be a value pick in the later rounds.
2. Jamaal Charles
Drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs at pick 10 in the third round, Charles has the size and skills but comes to a rebuilding team. Charles will back up Larry Johnson. As the season progresses and Charles is able to develop the strength and awareness to be an every-down back, he will be worth the wait. Monitor him closely and act quickly to snatch him off the waiver wire or even draft him as Johnson's handcuff in deeper leagues.
3. Mike Hart
Drafted by the Indianapolis Colts at pick 36 in round 6, Hart was once a first round projection this year. Due to a poor workout, he fell to the Colts in the sixth round. The Colts employ a pass-first offense but with the abilities of Joseph Addai, Hart will be in the perfect situation to develop into an every-down back. This year might be a wash for Hart, but potential fantasy owners should make themselves aware of Hart’s progress.
4. Steve Slaton
Drafted by the Houston Texans at pick 26 in Round Three, Slaton comes to a team that is desperate for a running back who can hit the home run. With Head Coach Gary Kubiak coming from the Denver Broncos' organization that drafted Terrell Davis in the sixth round in 1995, Slaton is in the perfect situation to develop the running style necessary for an every-down back.
5. Tim Hightower
Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals at pick 14 in round 5, Hightower is a developmental project with a team that has Edgerrin James slowly moving out the door. The Cardinals have all the tools to have a solid run game and Hightower will be mentored under Ken Whisenhunt, who coached with the Pittsburgh Steelers during the Super Bowl run in 2005.
That team featured Jerome Bettis as the running back. Hightower will not be in the same league as Bettis was in 2005, but in time he will be able to develop the skills to replace James as the Cardinals' starter.
Steven Troxtell is a Fantasy columnist for Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com
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4 months ago
Hmm....I see you fell for that rumor about trying to use McFadden like Bush too, hmm?
Ok, let's look at two things. First of all, is the OL. This line, was solid enough, to get a 1000 yard rusher through the holes, and allow 3 different RBs to get 100 yard rushing days.
I don't think there's much wrong with this line, other than the fact, they have to play the Chargers twice a year.
Secondly, is the passing game. Having McFadden adds another option to JaMarcus Russell's skillset.
He could do three different options, hand off, bootleg, or, do a fake, and simple shovel pass. Either way, McFadden will help Russell, and vice-versa.
4 months ago
you r a flat out idiot.I cant believe how many wannabe writers on this site who talk like they have football IQ..Dude your just regurgitating crap fro other sites.
let me educate you son...Raiders were 6th in rushing they added McFadden who will excel in zone blocking system
'cliche swiss cheese reference"...yes it is and shows you lack real insight and lack of creativity as a writer!
The Raiders were deliberately conservative in their passing offense because of the new system. Kiffin actually knows how to coach. You are a waste of my time.
4 months ago
Eric, sorry to have wasted your valuable time. Time that should have used in researching that the Raiders being the 6t best rushing offense in 2007 was their lone highlight. They ranked 11th in yards per carry with a 4.1, and 19th in rushing TDs with 11. Not total dominance I'd say. Respectable numbers, yes. The deliberately conservative approach in the passing game netted them a 31st rank in passing yards with 2,631 for a miserable 164.4 yards per game (also 31st). And that was with veterans like McCown and Culpepper. Russell, although talented, is still unproven and doesn't have many good weapons to retrieve his passes this year. I don't have anything else intelligent to add about Kiffin's suicidal coaching style.
4 months ago
Eric you are a flat out idiot everyone knows the Mcfadden will not be successful in his first season the raiders have no offence.. especially since they got rid of Daunte AND McCown and Russel can't do anything just because he had a good season in NCAA doesnt mean that it will translate over to the NFL... Fantasy i do have to agree with you on Rashard Mendenhall the steelers have been looking for their tough back since Jerome left and Najah just wasn't cutting it and Mendenhall will be a great fit into the steelers "Smash Mouth Football" style.
4 months ago
I think McFadden will do good in the slot. It will be fun to watch for a Saints-Raiders game in the future.
4 months ago
Here are some NFL analyst comments on McFadden:
"Raiders envision McFadden as a change-of-pace back for lead runner Justin Fargas" (NFL Column writer Scott Engel ESPN.com)
"Ran out of gas late in Alabama game (2007) Lacks ideal experience as a receiver" (ESPN, NFL Draft Analyst)
"McFadden showed off his variety of skills Saturday; He lined up as a wide receiver at times, ran the ball out of the I-formation and even worked at quarterback in some individual drills. One of the immediate priorities is working on McFadden's ball security." (CBS Sports line)
"McFadden was more of the Quarterback for the Arkansas Razorback while Felix Jones was used more like a RB" (CBS Sports line)
When New Orleans drafted Reggie Bush, NFL analyst believed that Bush has the making of something that does only happen once every decade. Here are some stats that make the transition from College to the NFL a reality.
2006 rookie stats RD 1(2) New Orleans Saints
565 yards rushing 3.6 yards per carry, longest carry 18 yards, 6TDs total
742 receiving yards 8.4yrds per reception, longest 74 yards, 2TDs total
216 return yards, longest return 65 yards, 1 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew, 2006 rookie stats RD 2(28) Pick 60 overall, Jacksonville Jaguars
941 yards rushing 5.7 yards per carry, longest carry 74 yards, 13TDs total
436 receiving yards 9.5yrds per reception, longest 51 yards, 2TDs total
860 return yards, longest return 93 yards, 1 TD
Darren McFadden will not exceed the stats that Bush acquire his rookie season. The Organizational system, Player drive and player make up all need to be accounted for when drafting a rookie RB in Fantasy Football.
McFadden is an exceptional athlete but with a crowed backfield and McFadden being a rookie this year, his stats will not equate to the college expectations that the Raiders envisioned when they drafted him.
It will be two maybe three seasons until McFadden shows why he was drafted by the Oakland Raiders.
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