Jerrod Heard Is Guaranteed to Be Texas' Starting QB by Week 1

The Texas Longhorns have the same question heading into the 2015 season as they've had for the past four years: Who's going to be the starting quarterback?

There are a number of reasons why Texas is eyeballs-deep in a rebuilding project, but that question tells you most of what you need to know. It could also tell you next year is redshirt freshman Jerrod Heard's best shot at earning that job over junior and incumbent starter Tyrone Swoopes.

Second-year head coach Charlie Strong struggled to win six games in 2014 largely because of offensive woes. The Longhorns could be in a position to finish with an even worse record next season since their best players, many of whom were on the defensive side, are now gone.

Ideally for Strong, though, Texas will show some improvement on offense. In theory, that shouldn't be too difficult, as the Horns were downright dreadful at times last year. Texas finished ninth in the Big 12 in total offense and points per game, and it finished dead last in passing yards per game.

With a year to learn without the pressures of playing and athleticism to spare, Heard is in a great spot to take control of the offense by Week 1 against Notre Dame. Here are the other factors that play into that:

No Kyler Murray (or Zach Gentry)

Barring a late push and signing-day surprise, there won't be a true freshman in a position to compete for, let alone win, the starting job. (3-star quarterback Matthew Merrick is on track to grayshirt—meaning he won't play in 2015—according to Max Olson of ESPN.com. Whether that changes remains to be seen.)

One option Texas can cross off its list is 5-star quarterback prospect Kyler Murray. According to Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports, Murray quickly became the center of the most heated recruiting battle in the country. The longtime Texas A&M verbal commit recently visited Texas, sparking panic in College Station, brief optimism in Austin and Twitter feuds between recruiting beat guys.

In the end, though, Murray stuck with his commitment to A&M.

"

Following my heart... #GigEm

— Kyler Murray (@TheKylerMurray) January 30, 2015"

Murray's decision is a tough blow for Texas in light of 4-star quarterback Zach Gentry's flip from the Longhorns to Michigan. As B/R recruiting guru Damon Sayles notes, Florida State commit Kai Locksley is the last hope Texas has of landing a big-name quarterback prospect:

"

If Locksley wants to compete for immediate playing time, entering a 2015 class with no quarterbacks would make sense. Locksley loves Florida State, but he took an official visit to Texas and had a great experience. And when 4-star receiver John Burt, Locksley's good friend, recommitted to Texas on Monday, he made it known that he wanted Locksley as a teammate.

"

Still, even if Locksley were to commit to Texas, he wouldn't arrive until the summer and would have a lot of ground to cover. If there was a 2015 prospect with the best chance to start on Day 1, it was Murray.  

Competition

A potentially quarterback-less 2015 class leaves Texas with two realistic options: Heard and Swoopes. 

With Swoopes, who passed for 2,409 yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 picks last year, progress has been two steps forward, two steps back. Just when it looks like he's turned a corner, like it did during a three-game stretch in November, Swoopes throws four picks in a season-ending game against TCU. 

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The lasting impression of Swoopes was a 57-yard passing performance in an overall abysmal showing in the Texas Bowl against Arkansas. 

To be fair to Swoopes, he was thrown into a tough situation. His redshirt was burned midway through his freshman season against TCU, but Texas' previous coaching staff never did much with him after that. Then, he was asked to become the full-time starter early last year once David Ash went out with what would be a career-ending concussion.

The reality is, Swoopes hasn't had great development. Part of that problem could be on him, but he's been incorrectly utilized and then had to learn a new system on the fly. That kind of stuff can hurt a quarterback. Plus, Swoopes never proved that he has the edge heading into spring ball.

Offensive Philosophy

At least one of the reasons why Gentry decommitted from Texas was that the coaching staff planned to changed its offensive philosophy.

"You know what, they’re changing the offense at Texas, and I wasn't totally comfortable with that," Gentry told James Yodice of the Albuquerque Journal. 

The reported move to the spread offense cost the Horns a verbal pledge. However, it caters to what Heard is more familiar with from his days at Denton Guyer High School—and to what high school quarterbacks around the state of Texas are comfortable with, too.

Texas is making a commitment to running an offense that in-state high school skill players love and understand. Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma State and now TCU have all experienced the fruits of what a spread offense can do for a program.

In the long run, Strong hopes this move will pay dividends on the recruiting trail. For 2015, it means Heard and his skill set have the best chance to see the field.

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.com. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.