Rajon Rondo and Dallas Mavericks Aren't Living Up to Each Other's Expectations
Rajon Rondo and the Dallas Mavericks are quickly finding out that success on paper doesn't automatically translate into on-court transcendence.
It's been more than a month since the Mavericks landed the All-Star floor general from the Boston Celtics. The deal, while fundamentally risky and met with mixed reactions, remains a good one in theory. Dallas took a few role players, a first-round pick and a second-round pick and turned them into a crafty, oft-recognized superstar point guard.
In the time since Rondo's arrival, though, the Mavericks have been a bending, buckling roller-coaster ride. They are just 11-9 with him in the fold and have gone from fifth place in the competitive Western Conference to seventh.
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The Mavericks aren't in imminent danger of falling out of the playoff picture entirely, to be sure. More than five games separate them from the West's most dangerous fringe teams (New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder). Barring a complete collapse, seventh place should be the lowest they fall.
But recent results are nonetheless concerning, if not alarming.
This was a move that was supposed to empower the Mavericks' title chase. Their offense was great before adding Rondo—historical, even—but the defense needed someone who could regularly hang with the NBA's onslaught of star point guards. The Mavericks were also a troubling 0-6 against fellow Western Conference playoff teams.
General consensus had them at least one game-changer short of inserting themselves into the belly of the championship conversation. Rondo was a defensive upgrade and, at worst, a lateral offensive move over Jameer Nelson.
Some worried Rondo's ball-dominating ways would take away from Dallas' point-piling potency. Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons were all accustomed to a certain number of touches, and Rondo's arrival took the ball out of their hands.
More than that, he disrupted the flow. The Mavericks ranked 11th in pace through their first 27 games. Though quick, incisive and seemingly built to run the floor, Rondo has never piloted an especially fast offense before. This season's Celtics were the first of his teams to rank inside the top 10 of possessions used per 48 minutes.
Boston led the league in pace prior to Rondo's departure. But the team also ranked 19th in points scored per 100 possessions. The Celtics were fast but not efficient. The Mavericks were both, so the move marked a stark change for Rondo, placing him on a team unlike any other squad he's known.
To this point, the numbers support all of this—both the fears and hopes. Dallas is enjoying a defensive boon with Rondo in tow, but its offense has been ripped out of its comfort zone:
| Pre-Rondo | 27 | 113.6 | 1 | 105.1 | 20 | 8.5 | 2 | 96.23 | 11 |
| Post-Rondo | 20 | 105.5 | 8 | 101.6 | 11 | 3.9 | 7 | 97.49 | 8 |
When a team hovers around the top 10 of both offensive and defensive efficiency, it's a standard recipe for success. It implies balance, and balance is good.
But the Mavericks' rate of play slows when Rondo is on the floor. They're essentially a man down when he doesn't have the ball in his hands as well, even though they've tried to force the issue.
Just 11.5 percent of Rondo's shot attempts came as catch-and-shoot opportunities before arriving in Dallas. Nearly 20 percent of his shots now come as spot-up looks, of which he's hitting 31.7 percent.
Too often Rondo can be seen unguarded, looking on as plays unfold around him. Defenses know he's not a standstill shooter. They also know that his range remains limited. Rondo is shooting under 35 percent outside three feet for his career, and his 32.3 percent clip from deep this season is a personal best.
Dallas' plugging Rondo into this offense has taken him out of his element, and he's yet to adapt. The Mavs cannot afford for that to continue.
Nowitzki and Parsons have shown they can score off the catch. The former is putting in more than 44 percent of his spot-up attempts overall, while the latter is drilling 36.4 percent of his standalone long balls. Ellis is a different story. He needs the ball in his hands at least some of the time.
Ellis is shooting just 34.1 percent off the catch. Almost two-thirds of his made buckets have also come unassisted. Playing on the ball has always been his game, so the transition works both ways. Operating beside Rondo has displaced him from his comfort zone.
Not to say this alliance has been a total loss. For all the kinks Dallas must work through, there remains some upside.
"Some of the dynamics have changed," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said, per The Associated Press' Schuyler Dixon (via NBA.com). "But our guys are learning that if Rondo has the ball and he's attacking, they either need to get to open spots or cut and he's going to find them. I just think that's a little adjusting. In some ways, we're on track and making progress."
Most of the progress has come on the defensive end. When Rondo is on the floor, the Mavericks allow just 98.8 points per 100 possessions, which would rank second in the league.
It's not like he's made those around him worse, either. Each of the Mavericks' other four starters is posting a markedly higher effective field-goal percentage—cumulative measurement of two- and three-point accuracy—with him on the floor.
If we're getting even more technical, the Mavericks haven't regressed that much. Their numbers with Rondo and the starting lineup are eerily similar to the team's pre-Rondo rise.
Here's a look at the Mavericks' pre-Rondo rankings, accompanied by the ranking equivalents of what their stats with Rondo on the floor and their starting lineup on the floor would look like:
| Pre-Rondo | 113.6 | 1 | 105.1 | 20 | 8.5 | 2 |
| With Rondo on Floor | 106.3 | 8 | 98.8 | 2 | 7.5 | 3 |
| With Starting Five | 106.0 | 8 | 101.5 | 13 | 4.5 | 8 |
There has indeed been some trade-off, though nothing that suggests the Mavericks are worse. But there's nothing to suggest they're actually better.
That's the problem.
Kate Crawford explains for Mavs Moneyball:
"I'm certainly not going to try to argue that Rondo is worse than the other point guard options the team has, but on net, he's really not been that much better. Given the wonky big-man lineups Carlisle seems to be experimenting with lately (Charlie V and Aminu? Really?), I'd much rather have Brandan Wright back in the rotation alongside any of the other mediocre point guards on the roster.
Dallas will almost certainly make the playoffs, but I think it's become increasingly clear over the last two weeks that they're not built to go very deep.
"
Everything Rondo was supposed to change, he's changed. We knew the offense would be a work in progress, we believed he would have a positive defensive impact, and we thought he was an upgrade over anyone else the Mavericks had or could get, despite his career-worst shooting and injury history.
All of those things have proved true. The Mavericks just haven't been better off for it.
Things only seem worse now because they're in a four-game losing streak, through which they rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. All four of those losses have come against winning squads, though.
That keeps in theme with the rest of Dallas' season.
Struggling against good contingents has been the Mavericks' season-long modus operandi. They're now 2-10 against Western Conference playoff factions (2-4 with Rondo), 14-12 against all West clubs (7-6 with Rondo) and 12-13 against teams .500 or better (5-7 with Rondo).
A greater percentage of their tilts are merely coming against the type of teams they always have trouble handling. Just 22 percent of their pre-Rondo contests saw them face Western Conference playoff teams. That number has climbed to 30 percent over the last 20 games, so if they're basically the same team from before, it's no wonder their winning percentage hasn't skyrocketed.
"We got a point guard that's got a lot of experience and a championship and is a great player, but I also think we've still got some work to do on both ends of the floor," Nowitzki said, per Dixon. "I could certainly see the potential that's there, but the problem is the West is just so tough. It's kind of hard to see right now how it's going to end up."
Indeed, a certain air of mystery remains. The new-look Mavericks still appear wonderfully talented on paper. Shallower than ever, they also seem ill-built to succeed within the cruelly constructed confines of the Western Conference.
These Mavericks traded for Rondo looking to change that. They were seeking a championship-caliber boost. Rondo came to Dallas under the impression he was joining a title-ready team. And in light of what's happened thus far, that's the most unsettling thing of all.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of Jan. 29, 2015 unless otherwise cited.
