Breaking Down Derrick Rose's Ugly, Slowly Improving Jump Shot

Derrick Rose's jump shot is finding twine at the right time for the Chicago Bulls.

No, he hasn't suddenly become the sweet-shooting Stephen Curry. Rose's jumper is still seldom pretty. The amount of lift he generates is peculiar, and defenses haven't stopped daring him to shoot.

But the results have been different of late—especially in the closing seconds of Tuesday night's 113-111 victory over the NBA-leading Golden State Warriors. With just under 10 seconds remaining in overtime and the game tied at 111, Rose launched a long two over the outstretched arms of Klay Thompson. He buried it, and the Bulls won.

It was a vintage Rose moment. It was also atypical of what we've come to expect this season. Rose is shooting just 41.6 percent from the floor overall, which would be a career low if not for a 35.4 percent clip during his 10-game stint in 2013-14.

Jump shooting has never been a particularly strong part of his game, yet he's been settling for more. More than 62 percent of his total shot attempts have come outside 18 feet. By comparison, just over 55 percent of his looks came from that range in 2011-12, his last (semi-)healthy season.

The change has been even more dramatic when looking at his shot distribution from behind the arc:

Depending so heavily on three-pointers is fine if you're considered a marksman, but Rose is no perimeter assassin. He is putting in just 31.3 percent of his long balls this season, is shooting 31.2 percent from deep for his career and has never converted more than 34 percent of his threes for an entire campaign (2013-14). And the latter comes with a caveat, since he appeared in just 10 games that season.

Nothing changed for most of 2014-15. Rose made 26 appearances on Jan. 8, during which time he shot 26.2 percent from long range. Since then, though, he's draining 40.8 percent of his long balls and looking more comfortable on the perimeter overall:

All of Rose's improvement has come further away from the basket. Not most—all. There has been some noticeable regression inside 15 feet from the cup, while his percentages have (mostly) climbed beyond there.

What gives?

Not his shot selection.

Fewer of his shots are coming between 20 and 24 feet (up to or around the three-point line), and more are coming between 25 and 29 feet. But there is no radical change that would imply reformation.

Besides, more outside shots aren't an efficiency panacea if you're not efficient to begin with. Conventional wisdom suggests that if Rose's outside shot is broken, taking even more outside shots won't generate better results.

As Blog A Bull's Jay Patt observed just ahead of this rise, Rose seemed to be at his best when eschewing long jumpers, not firing them up with career-high frequency:

"

I understand the desire to keep the defense honest, especially when the opponent is giving space and baiting Rose into shots. I also get him wanting to use his jumper to help preserve his body from wear-and-tear. But there are ways to do this without continuously throwing up horrendous three-point attempts. We've seen it happen THIS season. Is it a coincidence that in his best three games of the year (POR, TOR, WAS), he took eight threes total? I think not.

"

Similar shot selection in mind, has Rose's form undergone some sort of transmutation in recent weeks?

Er, not quite.

Here's a look at one of his jumpers from earlier in the season, during the Bulls' Oct. 31 matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers:

Source: NBA.com.

Notice the lift he gets (purple arrow). That's a ton. Then make note of how his elbow is cocked (green). It's slanting dramatically—and awkwardly—off to the right. Now look at his point of release (red), which is fairly button-down.

This shot attempt fell short. Way short.

Despite shooting 8-of-16 from the floor that night, in fact, Rose's outside display wasn't pretty. He shot just 3-of-11 when he wasn't around the rim.

Source: NBA.com.

Now focus on his game-winner from Tuesday night against Golden State:

Source: NBA.com.

See anything different? Exactly.

Rose's elbow might be a little straighter, but his motion, lift, point of release and everything else look like they did in October.

Ahem:

Source: NBA.com.

Identical form.

Not even the types of shots Rose attempts have changed. He's still shooting 50 percent on his pull-up jump shots and well north of 50 percent on his floating jump shots. 

Consider too that it's not like Rose is constantly on fire. Though his shooting has improved from certain ranges, he's still prone to bouts of inefficiency. While he nailed a game-winner against the Warriors, he still shot 7-of-24 (29.2 percent) away from the rim:

Source: NBA.com.

The operative word was "attack" in this game. Rose is being more aggressive, which has always been his style. It's not like he was super-efficient during his MVP season, remember. He found nylon on 44.5 percent of his attempts in 2010-11—an adequate number, but by no means crazy.

When figuring out why he's playing better—and in some cases shooting better—over these last 10 games, we should be drawn to something he said in December.

"I’m going to shoot. I just need to see one go down," he explained, per Bulls.com's Sam Smith. "Once I see one go down, I think I’ll be fine. My confidence is there."

Shooters shoot. Rose is shooting just like he always has. The shot distribution is slightly different and the end results are trending upward, but this is the same, perpetually assertive player we watched in 2010-11.

Maybe that's the difference.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com and accurate as of Jan. 28, 2015 unless otherwise cited.

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