Oregon Football: 5 Things That Must Change for the Ducks to Improve in 2015
While Oregon’s 2014 season came to a disappointing end in the national title game against Ohio State, it was still a season of firsts for the Ducks.
Oregon came away from 2014 with its first Heisman Trophy winner, Marcus Mariota, a spot in the first-ever College Football Playoff, a win in the first CFP game ever played and a trip to the first CFP title game.
All in all, it was a memorable season. Now, the Ducks must turn their attention to 2015.
The Ducks are, and should be, recognized as one of the finest programs in the country. They have to be considered a College Football Playoff threat from here on out. Moreover, the program should be expected to win the Pac-12 title and earn a spot into the playoff every year.
Yes, the Ducks lose their best player in Mariota. However, they will still likely be heavily favored to win the Pac-12 North and the Pac-12 title.
In order to do so and get back to the CFP National Championship, the Ducks must improve in a variety of ways.
It all starts with what they lacked in the national title game: toughness.
Toughness
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The Ducks made significant strides in terms of alleviating the perception that they are “soft” this season. Wins against teams like Michigan State and Stanford, both of whom possessed top-10 defenses, proved that the Oregon football program is not one that can be pushed around.
However, in the national title game against Ohio State, the critics once again found a reason to knock the Ducks. There’s no denying the fact that the Buckeyes manhandled Oregon on both sides of the ball.
The Ducks, who ranked No. 2 in the country in points per game, only managed to score 13 points on four red-zone possessions. They had 20 points in the game, their lowest output of the season.
Meanwhile, Ohio State destroyed Oregon on the ground to the tune of 296 rushing yards—with 246 yards and four touchdowns from offensive MVP Ezekiel Elliott—and the Ducks offense never established a run game of its own.
On the game, Oregon only managed 132 yards—about half of what it had averaged during the regular season—on 33 carries and didn’t score a rushing touchdowns.
The Buckeyes simply outmatched the Ducks, especially along both the offensive and defensive lines. As ESPN's Colin Cowherd pointed out, "Buckeyes physically stronger than Ducks. Not even close."
In order to finally break down the door and win a national title, the Ducks are going to need to assert themselves as the tougher team in each and every game next season.
The Ducks lose a significant amount of talent along both lines. Left tackle Jake Fisher, center Hroniss Grasu, left guard Hamani Stevens and defensive end Arik Armstead are all gone.
Not only does Oregon need to replace those stalwarts, but also the incoming replacements have to find a way to be tougher, both physically and mentally, than their predecessors.
It’s a lot to ask, but the Ducks have the athletes to make it happen.
Who's the Quarterback?
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There’s no way to replace Marcus Mariota. The only reason the quarterback position needs to change next season is because Mariota is making the jump to the NFL.
However, the Ducks play at their best when they’re able to run the ball at will against any opponent. With Mariota at QB this season, Oregon didn’t finish in the top 10 of rushing offense for the first time since 2006.
That’s not a knock on Mariota or Oregon’s offense in 2014. When you have a player of Mariota’s caliber, you have to play to his skill set. Oregon found a ton of success through the air this year. That being said, the Ducks are going to need to focus on their rushing game next season.
The Ducks aren’t short on QB options next season. Within the program, the Ducks could turn to Jeff Lockie, Morgan Mahalak, Ty Griffin, Taylor Alie or incoming freshman Travis Waller. While Lockie, a redshirt sophomore, seems to be the prohibitive favorite, he’s not a sure thing. In fact, if we’re using past results to predict what will happen this time around, Lockie may actually be the underdog.
If the Ducks decide to go outside of the program, they could try to snag Braxton Miller from Ohio State. As Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee explained recently, Miller could be the perfect fit in Eugene. Another fit for the program may be Eastern Washington’s Vernon Adams Jr.
Whoever the starter is, he’ll have tons of weapons around him. Players such as Thomas Tyner, Royce Freeman, Byron Marshall, Darren Carrington, Pharaoh Brown, Evan Baylis, Charles Nelson, Devon Allen and Bralon Addison will all be returning.
It’s going to be difficult to replace Mariota, but whoever is the next QB will be in a position to succeed. Just get the ball into the hands of your playmakers without giving up possessions.
Rushing Attack
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Oregon ranked in the top 10 of rushing offense every year from 2007 to 2013. However, in arguably their best season in program history, the Ducks finished No. 22 in rushing offense in 2014.
Yes, Mariota’s season for the ages had a little to do with why the Ducks didn’t run the ball as effectively. That being said, it’s important for the Ducks to get back to the ground game in 2015.
The Ducks will return one of the best one-two punches in college football next season. Royce Freeman, who will be a sophomore, was one of the best true freshman running backs in the entire country this year. His 2015 Heisman campaign has already been launch by yours truly.
On the season, Freeman ran for 1,365 yards—ranked No. 27 nationally—and scored 19 touchdowns, an Oregon freshman record. In fact, his 19 touchdowns rank No. 3 all-time at Oregon behind Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James, each of whom scored 21 touchdowns.
Playing alongside of Freeman will be Thomas Tyner, who will be a junior next season. While Tyner struggled with injuries in 2014, he had his best game of the season in the Rose Bowl against Florida State, rushing for 124 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries.
As a freshman in 2013, Tyner rushed for a then-true freshman record of 711 yards and scored nine touchdowns.
Both Tyner and Freeman have shown the ability to take over games, and we should expect heavy doses of each in 2015, especially considering Oregon’s quarterback situation.
Here’s an early prediction: Oregon will rank within the top five in rushing offense in 2015.
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Third-Down Defense
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The Ducks ranked No. 90 in third-down conversions allowed next season. In all, Oregon faced 242 third downs defensively last year and allowed 102 conversions, which is a 42.15 percent conversion rate.
It should also be noted that Oregon both faced the most third-down attempts in the country and allowed the most conversions. That’s nothing new for the Ducks. In fact, Oregon has been in the top 10 of most third-down situations faced in six of the last seven years.
What’s concerning is that since 2008 Oregon has never ranked below No. 68 in third-down defense and has never allowed more than 40.09 percent of attempts to be converted, both of which occurred in 2013.
Oregon’s third-down defense is heading in the wrong direction. It’s something the Oregon coaches should focus on this offseason and something the players must be cognizant of.
Remember, Oregon’s offense needs as many possessions and plays as possible. When Oregon's defense doesn’t get off the field, it unnecessarily subjects itself to more plays and more time on the field.
While Oregon doesn’t care about the time of possession, at some point the sheer amount of plays Oregon’s defense has to face takes its toll on the players.
In order for the Ducks to repeat as Pac-12 champions and reach the College Football Playoff, Oregon’s defense has to be more consistent than it was last year. The Ducks stepped it up defensively in the second half of the 2014 season under first-year defensive coordinator Don Pellum.
It’ll be interesting to see what Pellum is able to draw up on third down without the services of Armstead, Tony Washington, Derrick Malone, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Troy Hill and Erick Dargan.
A lot of parts need to be replaced on Oregon’s defense, but fixing the problems on third down may be more important.
Pass Defense
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Despite the fact that Oregon led the country in turnover margin and ranked No. 3 in turnovers forced last season, the Ducks secondary was atrocious for long stretches of the season.
Oregon’s defense as a whole created 34 turnovers; however, only 13 of those came via interceptions.
Moreover, Oregon passing defense ranked No. 111 in the country and gave up an average of 264.3 yards per game through the air.
The Pac-12 is loaded with talented quarterbacks and coaches who aren’t afraid to take to the air. That has to be a concern for the Ducks going forward, as they are losing three of their four starting defensive backs next season.
Without the services of Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who earned first-team AP All-American honors in 2014, Troy Hill and Erick Dargan, who was perhaps Oregon’s best defensive player in 2014, the Ducks will need huge contributions from some of their younger players.
The Ducks will turn to Chris Seisay, who replaced Ekpre-Olomu after he suffered a knee injury in Rose Bowl preparations, and Arrion Springs, who will be a sophomore next season, at the corners.
At safety, Oregon will lean on Reggie Daniels, a redshirt sophomore, to be the backbone of an otherwise young secondary. Daniels played all 15 games for the Ducks this season as the free safety and racked up 83 tackles—third on the team—nine pass breakups, a forced fumble and an interception.
Playing alongside him will be Tyree Robinson. He played in all 15 games and made 36 tackles this season. His size (6'4", 200 lbs), speed and experience will be crucial for the young secondary.
If the Ducks don’t do a better job of shutting down the passing game against Pac-12 opponents, it may be a long year for a team with very high expectations in 2015.
Statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com unless otherwise stated. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise stated.
Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.
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