Why Auburn Should Be Favorite to Win SEC in 2015

The syncretism of Gus Malzahn's offense with Will Muschamp's defense is the most fascinating subplot of the offseason, and although their marriage comes with risk, its upside is so great that Auburn should be considered the SEC favorite.

Malzahn is known for his obsession with tempo. "Our goal is to play faster than anybody in college football," he said in July 2013, per Chris Vannini of Coaching Search. "We feel like if you can execute your offense at a fast pace, it's a big advantage."

Muschamp is known for...well, the opposite of tempo. Spencer Hall of SB Nation coined "Big Dumb Will Muschamp Football" as an apt way of describing his Florida teams, which finished third-to-last, third-to-last, dead last and third-to-last in the SEC in yards per game.

There is, however, a redeeming quality to Big Dumb Will Muschamp Football: It's contagious for the other team. Even in 2014, the season that got Muschamp fired, Florida finished No. 5 in the country and led the SEC in yards per play allowed (4.55). We're talking about a guy who made the Sugar Bowl with Jeff Driskel.

There's no limit to what he can do with Malzahn.

The Muschamp Effect

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Auburn fired defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson on Nov. 30, the morning after losing 55-44 at Alabama. The Crimson Tide averaged 8.84 yards per play in that game. The only times a Nick Saban-coached Alabama team has averaged more yards per play, its opponents were Florida Atlantic (8.86, 2014) and Western Carolina (8.85, 2012).

The Tigers have lost seven games under Malzahn, four times despite scoring 30 points. They ended the season with back-to-back losses of that nature, first against Alabama and next against Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl (34-31).

Dating back to 2001, which includes his stops as defensive coordinator at Texas (2008-10), Auburn (2006-07) and LSU (2001-04), along with his four years at Florida, Muschamp has been in 76 games in which his team scored 30-plus points. His record? 75-1.

The only time he lost, he got Crabtree'd:

Johnson was an old-school coach who got his first FBS coordinator job at Southern Mississippi in 1988. For context, the quarterback of that team was a 19-year-old Brett Favre. College offenses are changing, thanks in some part to the success of Malzahn, and Johnson, despite his bona fides, could never coach his defense to keep up.

It wasn't for a lack of talent, either. The deck of Auburn's defense is stacked. Linebackers Kris Frost and Cassanova McKinzy have All-SEC potential. So does defensive tackle Montravius Adams. Cornerback Jonathan Jones actually made the All-SEC second team in 2014.

All four return next season, as does former 5-star defensive end Carl Lawson, who missed the 2014 season with a knee injury.

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Muschamp will mold those front-seven players (and others) to fit his defense, a multiple-front scheme that moves between 3-4 and 4-3 alignments. Other than depth, which Auburn has also developed, the most important thing a defense can have is versatility. That is how you stop uptempo offenses: confuse them into thinking they have a matchup advantage when they don't. Teach defenders multiple roles.

Muschamp does that as well as anybody, which is why his defenses finish near the top of the country. It's also what makes him the perfect tonic for Johnson.

"I just knew that's who I wanted and who we needed," Malzahn said at Muschamp's introductory press conference.

"Need" might be too light a word.

	Auburn Offense	Auburn Defense
	Florida Offense	Florida Defense
Yards/Game	493.4	410.2
Points/Game	37.6	25.7
Yards/Play	6.82	5.82
10-Yard Plays/Game	16.9	15.0
F/+ Rank (Avg.)	6.0	27.5
Yards/Game	342.1	322.0
Points/Game	24.5	21.1
Yards/Play	5.03	4.89
10-Yard Plays/Game	11.2	11.2
F/+ Rank (Avg.)	92.5	13.5

The Offense is In Good Hands

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Auburn will lose its starting quarterback (Nick Marshall), a 1,600-yard rusher (Cameron Artis-Payne), its leading receiver (Sammie Coates) and a four-year starter at center (Reese Dismukes). For most teams, that means the offense will take a big step back.

For Auburn: Might this offense be better?

Quarterback Jeremy Johnson has done everything right the past two seasons, including carving up Arkansas in the first half of the 2014 opener, when Marshall was suspended for a marijuana citation. The Tigers went 75 yards in eight plays, 75 yards in six plays and 98 yards in seven plays for touchdowns on their first three possessions.

"We feel like he could start for most teams in college football," Malzahn told reporters after the game. "I think everybody saw that tonight."

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Johnson is a more traditional quarterback than Marshall, who has already made the switch to defensive back as he auditions for the NFL. The rising junior is 6'5", 230 pounds and has a live, accurate throwing arm. He isn't immobile, but zone reads will not be as instrumental as they have been to this offense. When he runs them, he will look more like Nick Foles than Michael Vick.

With Johnson, then, the Tigers will play something closer to a pro-style offense. They won't lose their signature tempo, but they will rely more on the passing game. That's a change they are comfortable making, however, because they trust their No. 1 receiver.

D'haquille Williams was the No. 1 overall JUCO prospect in the 2014 class, and he lived up to that billing in Year 1. His stats didn't jump off the page (45 catches, 730 yards, five touchdowns), but he looked the part of a future megastar. When NFL scouts compare you with Alshon Jeffery, you're doing something (a lot of things) right.

More to the point, Williams played better with Johnson than he ever played with Marshall, even if it was only for one half. Johnson targeted Williams seven times on seven drives against Arkansas. The result? Seven completions, 138 yards and a touchdown.

Yards per target: 19.7.

At running back, the Tigers have a Fredkin's paradox: 

Should we lean on this blue-chip prospect…the other blue-chip prospect…or the OTHER blue-chip prospect?

Roc Thomas was the No. 4 back in the 2014 class. The two backs directly behind him were Nick Chubb (Georgia) and Royce Freeman (Oregon). Combined, Chubb and Freeman gained 3,283 total yards as true freshmen. Again: Thomas was ranked ahead of them.

Incoming recruit Jovon Robinson, the No. 1 overall JUCO player in the country, and freshman Kerryon Johnson, the No. 2 high school back in the country, grade about as well as Thomas, Chubb and Freeman did, too. Those are two more impressive darts thrown at the board.

They and redshirt sophomore Peyton Barber will run behind another good line. The loss of Dismukes, Patrick Miller and Chad Slade will hurt, but Avery Young bypassed the draft, Braden Smith played well in his first start against Wisconsin and Ole Miss transfer Austin Golson, who started 12 games for the Rebels in 2013, will be eligible.

All things told, the Tigers return 59 career starts up front. More than that, they return Malzahn and offensive line coach J.B. Grimes, under whom they finished No. 5 in the country in adjusted line yards (run blocking) last season and No. 2 in 2013, per Football Outsiders.

This running game is a machine that won't stop.

Who Should be the Favorites Over Them?

Butch Dill/Associated Press

The traditional SEC powers all have problems. So do the SEC upstarts. Auburn is the team with the easiest-to-answer questions:

• Can Muschamp improve the defense? Probably.
• Can Grimes rebuild the offensive line? Probably.
• Can Johnson play this well over a full season? Probably.

None of those answers are definite, but "probably" is good enough for now. The rest of the conference should be so lucky:

• Who is the quarterback at Alabama? Dunno.
• Who is the quarterback at Georgia? Dunno.
• Who is the quarterback at LSU? Braxton Mil…oh. Dunno.

Barrett Sallee of Bleacher Report had Auburn No. 2 in his SEC power rankings, looking up at rival Alabama. But even he thinks it looks like a tossup. "Don't be surprised if the SEC West—and, essentially, the SEC—comes down to the Iron Bowl," he wrote.

That wouldn't surprise me at all…which is why I think Auburn is the pick. The Iron Bowl is at Jordan-Hare next season, and so is the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry (against Georgia). After a season in which the schedule was out to get them, the Tigers catch a bit of a break.

The closest parallel to Auburn is Texas A&M, another team that hired a proven defensive coordinator (John Chavis of LSU) to supplement its high-powered offense. But A&M's defensive problems are greater than those of Auburn.

Per the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, the Aggies finished last year with the No. 81 defense in college football, behind such juggernauts as UConn and UAB. They finished the previous year No. 86, behind Texas State and Akron. Auburn finished No. 37 and No. 18, respectively.

This defense doesn't have that far to climb to win a championship. If it makes the jump from the Top 40 to the Top 20—from where it was in 2014 to where it was in 2013—that would make Auburn the favorite. If it leaps into the Top 15 or 10, no one is going to beat it.

Either way, this team will be in the picture. Alabama won the conference in 2014, but no team has repeated as SEC champion since 1998. Sixteen years of history say the Tide should not be favored.

That they travel to the Plains says it, too.

Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings.

Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeigh35