Why Nick Fairley Must Be at Top of Indianapolis Colts' Free-Agent Wish List
The Indianapolis Colts have officially started their offseason after getting blown out in a 45-7 loss to the New England Patriots. It was apparent that the Colts could not stop the run, and as the team begins to look at free agents to bring in, Detroit Lions defensive lineman Nick Fairley should be at the top of their list.
Despite knowing that the Patriots were going to try to run the ball this past Sunday, the Colts could do little to stop them. New England ran for 177 yards and three touchdowns, averaging a solid 4.4 yards per carry. Throughout the regular season, the Colts struggled against the run, ranking 19th in run defense, according to Football Outsiders.
As the former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator, head coach Chuck Pagano has emphasized stopping the run on defense. The Colts will have some work to do this offseason if they're serious about upgrading their defense, and they can start by trying to bring in Fairley.
According to OverTheCap.com, the Colts have over $37 million in cap room for 2015, and over $80 million for 2016. Keep in mind that the Colts will likely have to pay some big money in 2016 to bring back guys like Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, but they still have money to work with this offseason to bring in some key additions, and even a potentially big name.
| 2015 | $110,370,326 | $147,728,385 | $37,358,059 |
| 2016 | $69,230,896 | $150,000,000 | $80,769,104 |
| 2017 | $40,116,986 | $160,000,000 | $119,883,014 |
Fairley's numbers don't particularly stand out from 2014, picking up just 14 tackles and a sack. But the 26-year-old former first-round pick played in just eight games, yet still ranked 18th among defensive tackles in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. In 2012, PFF ranked Fairley fifth among eligible defensive tackles.
The Colts are going to need help on the defensive line in 2015. Arthur Jones will return, but Cory Redding is an unrestricted free agent at 34 years old, and there's a chance that he decides to retire in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, there are also concerns at nose tackle, with Josh Chapman and Montori Hughes failing to make a major impact in the trenches.
Detroit declined their team option to bring back Fairley for another year, meaning that the defensive lineman will be able to look at other options this offseason. According to Dave Birkett from the Detroit Free Press, it's unlikely that the Lions try to bring back Fairley with a franchise tag in hopes of also bringing back Ndamukong Suh.
The reason that Fairley would be such an ideal fit for the Colts is his ability to both disrupt opposing quarterbacks and plug up rushing lanes. He may have missed the final half of this past season, but he was making a major impact before then.
Let's take a look back at the Week 6 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. With the Vikings backed up by their own goal line, Fairley is initially going up against two offensive linemen right off of the snap.
However, with one of the linemen pulling and the other getting a bad angle on Fairley, a well-timed jump off of the snap helps him get into the backfield with ease. At the same time, Fairley is able to slow down the pulling guard, helping both him and Suh get into the backfield. Both players get to the running back and take him down for a three-yard loss.
If the Colts decide to pursue Fairley, it will be interesting to see where they want him to play. As a 4-3 defensive tackle, Fairley could be moved just about anywhere on the 3-4 defensive line for the Colts. Bleacher Report Lions Featured Columnist Jeff Risdon spoke with me about how Fairley would fit in the Colts defense, saying:
"He fits Indy because he can play as a shaded nose or a 3-technique but also an under or over tackle. He got in better shape this year and was more explosive off the snap. He also has learned how to anticipate blocks and make himself narrow to get off blocks and into the backfield. I wouldn't say he's an ideal 5-technique for a 3-4, but I would consider him there on passing downs. He's not a guy who anchors well, he's all about disruption and getting up the field, not a blocker-eater.The key will be to get him to agree to a shorter-term make-good deal. He's had so many issues with maturity. He finally got it together this year but got hurt, and to his credit he stayed in shape and actively engaged with the team. He's very well-liked by teammates."
The other big question for the Colts is how much Fairley will be asking for in the free-agent market. Obviously, his asking price will be higher than he's actually worth, but that's the nature of free agency. The lack of production and inability to stay healthy should drive his price down a bit, but Fairley is still a disruptive player that more than a few teams will be looking at.
A couple of good contracts to compare for Fairley will be Marcell Dareus and Arthur Jones. According to Spotrac, Dareus counted for almost $6.5 million against the cap, while Jones counted for $5.6 million. Fairley is good, but he has yet to prove himself with an eye-opening season, and he should be looking for around that much money per year, or perhaps closer to $7 million if teams start fighting over him.
The Colts will have enough money to afford a big name like Fairley, and if they're really serious about upgrading their defense to stop opposing run games and disrupt opposing quarterbacks, then they'll want to stay in touch with the 26-year-old throughout this offseason.
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