Predictions for Dodgers Newcomers in 2015
The Los Angeles Dodgers revamped their roster this offseason with a flurry of moves during the winter meetings, trading away several popular players in an effort to improve the team's defense and chemistry.
New president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi also acquired some starting pitchers to shore up the back end of an already promising rotation for 2015.
There were other minor tweaks as well, but the Dodgers are looking toward a group of five new players to provide the biggest impact next season.
Nobody knows how these recent additions will pan out as members of the Boys in Blue. That's why they play the games. But expectations are high, as Los Angeles is already one of the Vegas favorites to win it all come October, per Odds Shark.
While we're discussing the future, here are some preliminary predictions for how the newest Dodgers will perform in 2015.
Howie Kendrick
1 of 5
The Dodgers acquired second baseman Howie Kendrick from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for pitching prospect Andrew Heaney, whom they had received from the Miami Marlins for Dee Gordon just a few hours earlier on that crazy December day during the winter meetings.
Friedman and Zaidi are both staunch believers in the concept of advanced metrics. Each executive cultivated the practice in the small markets of Tampa Bay and Oakland, respectively, where a lack of financial flexibility called for shrewd, cost-effective baseball decisions.
When analyzing Kendrick, they definitely noticed that the 31-year-old has been one of the best offensive second baseman over the past few seasons when it came to a metric called "weighted runs created plus," or wRC+. Since 2011, Kendrick has posted 115, 117, 103 and 123 in terms of wRC+.
Gordon's numbers during that span: 94, 58, 73 and 101.
Kendrick should also provide an upgrade over Gordon on defense. A common barometer used to value a player's defense is a metric called defensive runs saved (DRS). Zero is considered average, 10 is great and minus-10 is poor. Kendrick's DRS ranked seventh among all second basemen with at least 500 innings played last season, according to FanGraphs. Gordon's minus-five DRS ranked 25th.
Kendrick's batting average has hovered between .279 and .293 for the past five seasons. That consistency implies more of the same in 2015. The Dodgers shouldn't expect Kendrick to hit more than 10 home runs, but he will be counted on to put the ball in play—something that he has done throughout his career.
Brandon McCarthy
2 of 5
Shortly following the Kendrick trade, Los Angeles agreed to a four-year, $48 million contract with starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy to help solidify the back end of the starting rotation.
There was a growing void to fill after the Dodgers bought out Chad Billingsley and traded Dan Haren.
While the amount of money given to a pitcher with a career 4.09 ERA could be considered excessive, Friedman and Zaidi may have been looking a little deeper that just that one statistic. McCarthy's most recent work was a stellar second half of 2014 with the New York Yankees. But even that performance might have been an anomaly. Historically, McCarthy has struggled in hitter-friendly parks like Yankee Stadium.
Dodger Stadium, conversely, is not a hitter-friendly park by any stretch of the imagination. Neither is O.co Coliseum, home of McCarthy's former team, the Oakland Athletics.
McCarthy's ERA during his two seasons as a member of the A's was lower than it has been with any other team throughout his nine-year career. As the probable No. 4 starter in Los Angeles, there will be considerably less pressure on McCarthy to live up to the lofty expectations placed upon him in Arizona. Plus, he will be working with one of the game's best pitching coaches in Rick Honeycutt.
If McCarthy can stay healthy, it would not be surprising to see him achieve at least 10 wins with an ERA under 3.50.
Yasmani Grandal
3 of 5
Yasmani Grandal will likely be tasked with living up to some lofty expectations in the eyes of most Dodgers fans heading into 2015.
That's because he was the main haul in the deal that sent longtime fan favorite and franchise cornerstone Matt Kemp to the San Diego Padres.
The prevailing thought in Los Angeles immediately following the trade was something along the lines of "Surely the Dodgers could have gotten something more in return for Kemp, couldn't they?"
Grandal batted just .225 last season in 128 games. Nothing to write home about, sure, but it was better than what current Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis provided a year ago, a .191 average in 283 at-bats over 93 games. Grandal's less noticeable attributes include his .350 on-base percentage and elite pitch-framing ability.
The Dodgers believe that the switch-hitting Grandal can provide a bit more pop from the catcher position (15 homers last year playing in spacious Petco Park) while forming a presumable platoon alongside Ellis.
Although there are concerns about Grandal's personal baggage and injury history—in 2012, he tested positive for a performance-enhancing drugs then tore his ACL a few months later—Grandal can offer versatility at the plate and unique skills behind it when healthy.
The Dodgers are hoping that those qualities shine through during his second full season in the big leagues.
Brett Anderson
4 of 5
Another starting pitcher brought in to round out the 2015 rotation is Brett Anderson, an oft-injured left-hander who has pitched well during the few extended periods of time when he has been healthy.
The Dodgers signed Anderson to a one-year, $10-million contract that included a $5 million signing bonus and an additional $4 million in incentives, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
Anderson is 27-32 with three saves and a 3.73 ERA in 92 career games spanning six seasons with Oakland and Colorado. He was limited to just eight starts a season ago with the Rockies because of a broken left index finger and lower back surgery. Anderson went 1-3 with a 2.91 ERA in those games and comes to the Dodgers with major injury risk attached.
However, Zaidi is willing to take a chance on Anderson and believes the injuries are behind him, according to Shaikin.
"On a conference call to formally announce the signing of the talented but oft-injured Anderson, Zaidi acknowledged the pitcher's track record meant the Dodgers were taking "some risk," but said the team was convinced the last three years represented "a run of bad luck," including "a freak thumb issue and a very minor back issue" last year.
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The Los Angeles general manager wouldn't put a number on the amount of starts it would take for him to consider the Anderson signing a success, but explained that the Dodgers also acquired pitching insurance with guys like Juan Nicasio, Mike Bolsinger and Joe Wieland in the event of another Anderson injury.
FanGraphs' Steamer projection has the southpaw throwing 96 innings in 2015. Of course, the Dodgers would like more out of him and can only hope for the best when it comes to their potential No. 5 starter.
Jimmy Rollins
5 of 5
The Dodgers traded for veteran Jimmy Rollins because they needed an everyday shortstop once Hanley Ramirez left for the Boston Red Sox as a free agent.
Los Angeles sent pitcher Zach Eflin (acquired from San Diego in the Kemp trade) and minor league left-hander Tim Windle to Philadelphia in exchange for Rollins, who agreed to waive his no-trade clause, per Eric Stephen of True Blue LA. The Dodgers also included $1 million to help cover Rollins' $11 million salary this year, according to the Los Angeles Times' Dylan Hernandez.
While Rollins' .243 batting average last season seemed to indicate that the 36-year-old was beginning to show his age, Friedman and Zaidi once again noticed something under the radar.
Rollins ranked 10th in defensive runs saved among shortstops with at least 500 innings played last year, per FanGraphs. He also produced a higher on-base percentage, four more home runs and 14 more stolen bases than Ramirez did for the Dodgers in 2014.
Basically, he was better than Ramirez in a variety of ways.
He'll likely be called upon to set the table for the Dodgers on offense as the leadoff batter next season, while also providing veteran leadership and invaluable postseason experience that comes from winning a World Series like he did in 2008.
A drop in Rollins' home run total (17 last season) is to be expected moving from the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park to Dodger Stadium, but Los Angeles didn't acquire him to hit home runs. The team basically brought him to play the role of proven stopgap and defensive upgrade until top prospect Corey Seager is ready for everyday action at the position in 2016. After all, Rollins' contract expires after next season.
All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise linked/noted.
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