Should Dodgers Lock Up Zack Greinke Now to Eliminate Opt-out Risk?

The Los Angeles Dodgers, owners of baseball's biggest payroll, haven't thrown their financial weight around this offseason.

Yes, they shored up the back end of the rotation by signing Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, but they missed out on marquee free agents Jon Lester and Max Scherzer.

There's another top-shelf pitcher, though, who Los Angeles could ink for gobs of cash, and he already dons the Dodger blue: Zack Greinke.

Yes, Greinke is technically signed through 2018. But his contract contains an opt-out clause that allows him to walk after 2015, leaving $71 million on the table and seeking an even bigger payday elsewhere.

So the question becomes: Should LA lock up its All-Star right-hander now and ensure he stays in Southern California for the long haul, or play the wait-and-see game and risk losing him?

On Dec. 9, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman "would not discuss an extension with Greinke this winter."

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

At the same time, Shaikin predicted, "Greinke will opt out of his contract with the Dodgers, barring injury or ineffectiveness next season."

Should Friedman reconsider his position or is he wise to hold back?

Let's take a closer look.

Yes, Extend Him Now

The notion of a player walking away from that much guaranteed money seems insane. But assuming Greinke has a typical season in 2015, he'd surely get more on the open market.

He's that good.

It's been five years since Greinke's Cy Young-winning season with the Kansas City Royals. Last year, though, was arguably his next-best big league campaign, as he posted a 2.71 ERA in 202.1 innings to go along with 207 strikeouts and (why not?) a Gold Glove.

Slotted next to reigning National League MVP Clayton Kershaw, Greinke comprises one half of possibly the best lefty-righty combo in the game.

Letting Greinke test the open market is simply too big of a risk for LA. Yes, next season's projected free-agent pitching class is rich, but Greinke will have suitors lining up.

How much does he want? He gave a clue in July, telling Shaikin, "What happens with Lester and Scherzer will say a lot."

Scherzer just inked a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Washington Nationals, per FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal, and Lester got six years and $145 million from the Chicago Cubs.

Bottom line: With their deep pockets, the Dodgers can afford to pay Greinke now and still go after another top-shelf arm next winter.

No, Wait and See

Hang on a second—let's talk more about next winter's pitching class. "Rich" doesn't begin to cover it.

Here's a partial list of ace-level studs set to hit the market after the 2015 season: Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister, David Price, Jordan Zimmermann and, yes, possibly Greinke. 

That's not to say Greinke won't be able to secure a hefty payday in that sea of elite talent. But it certainly gives the Dodgers options.

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

As mentioned, LA could re-up Greinke after he opts out and still add another No. 1-caliber arm. Or it could nab two names from that impressive array and let Greinke go.

Either way, there's no discernible advantage to cutting a deal now.

Speaking of which: Suppose Greinke does get hurt or have a down year? As Shaikin suggested, he'd then likely elect to stick around and collect his $71 million.

That could be bad news for the Dodgers, but it'd be a lot worse if they had just invested even more years and dollars.

So Which Is It?

When you root for a team with seemingly bottomless pockets, it's easy to demand they sign every player immediately.

And, admittedly, the idea of making the 31-year-old Greinke a Dodger for life (or something close to it) before the first pitch of 2015 sounds tempting. 

Friedman, though, has preached—and displayed—restraint during his brief tenure in LA. Time will tell if that's the correct overall approach. In this case, at least, it looks like the right call.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.