Projecting the Los Angeles Dodgers' 5-Man Rotation for 2015
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ rotation is undoubtedly the strength of the team. It is loaded.
Two Cy Young winners head the staff, and the back half is talented as well. Legitimate arguments can be made that Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu are each among the top 20 pitchers in all of baseball, and new acquisitions Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson have question marks but are talented.
The team’s success will likely hinge on the offense, but that is because the rotation is expected to be fantastic. In 2014, they ranked second in the majors in ERA, and there is no reason to expect they would be significantly worse in 2015.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
Clayton Kershaw
1 of 5
The reigning MVP and Cy Young winner, Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball.
He hasn’t posted an ERA over 3.00 since his rookie year and is coming off the best season of his career. In 2014, he led baseball in FIP, ERA and K/9.
While it’s unlikely he'll continue to be the best of the best until the end, it’s also unlikely he'll completely fall off. So even if he takes a slight step backward, he will still be good enough to anchor an elite rotation.
Zack Greinke
2 of 5
The second Cy Young winner on the team, Greinke is a great pitcher. He has traditionally underperformed compared to his FIP (meaning his ERA has been higher than his FIP), but that has flipped with Los Angeles.
He’s posted an ERA under 3.00 in each of his years with the Dodgers, and his 2014 strikeout rate was his best since his Cy Young year of 2009.
His fastball velocity has dropped over the last few years, which isn’t a surprise given his age. He’s 31, but the fact that he’s had the best seasons of his career with lower velocity means that he has already demonstrated an ability to pitch without elite stuff.
Hyun-jin Ryu
3 of 5
The remaining member of the returning trio that anchored the Dodgers last year, Ryu has the biggest question marks.
He’s been excellent in his two years in the majors but suffered through some injury questions last year and only made 26 starts. However, his overall numbers are fantastic.
If he can stay healthy, he will be a key member of the staff.
.png?w=256)
Brandon McCarthy
4 of 5
The first of the former A’s to join the team, McCarthy is far safer than Brett Anderson.
He has a sketchy track record—2014 was the only season he made 30 starts, and he only has one FIP below 3.00. However, he told the Los Angeles Times' Steve Dilbeck that he made an adjustment to his weight program, so the possibility exists that he has made a legitimate improvement and can remain healthy.
If he does, though, he will also have to be better on the mound than he has been. He has never been an elite pitcher, but a four-year, $48 million contract suggests that he needs to be.
To be worth the deal, he will need to stay healthy and be effective.
Brett Anderson
5 of 5
Anderson is a risky proposition.
He’s talented and has been quite good at times in his career, but he hasn’t thrown more than 170 innings in a season since 2009.
The Dodgers did not invest heavily in him—just one year and $10 million—but he does take a rotation spot and does not guarantee health. If Anderson gets hurt in April—which is possible—then the Dodgers will be forced to try an unproven minor league pitcher such as Zach Lee or Chris Reed.
Given the Dodgers have already chosen to designate Brian Wilson for assignment, if Anderson fails, he won’t be long for the roster. This might not seem like the worst thing in the world, but it will have cost Los Angeles the opportunity to sign someone else.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
