Ravens vs. Patriots: Latest Odds and Stat Predictions for Top Fantasy Stars

There's more at stake in the showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots than just a spot in the AFC Championship Game. At least, there is for both bettors and fantasy football owners. 

The NFL playoffs represent an opportunity for the betting public and fantasy players who perhaps struggled during the regular season to right the ship. The matchup between the Patriots and Ravens is particularly interesting because Tom Brady and company are seen as the favorites, but Pete Damilatis of Pro Football Focus notes that hasn't always mattered in the past:

According to Odds Shark as of Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET, the point spread is New England minus-6.5. It is at least worth keeping in mind that the Ravens have experienced some postseason success before in New England before going with the Patriots.

As for the fantasy angle, here is a look at some stat predictions for the top stars as well as a closer look at some of the matchups.

Player	Team	Projected Stats
QB Joe Flacco	Ravens	225 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
QB Tom Brady	Patriots	270 passing yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT
RB Justin Forsett	Ravens	48 rushing yards, 15 receiving yards, 0 TD
RB LeGarrette Blount	Patriots	61 rushing yards, 0 TD
WR Steve Smith Sr.	Ravens	79 receiving yards, 1 TD
WR Julian Edelman	Patriots	75 receiving yards, 1 TD
TE Owen Daniels	Ravens	43 receiving yards, 1 TD
TE Rob Gronkowski	Patriots	86 receiving yards, 2 TD

Favorable Matchup: Rob Gronkowski vs. Ravens Defense

The Ravens were fortunate enough to face the Patriots without tight end Rob Gronkowski in the 2012 AFC Championship Game or in last season's game thanks to injury. That will not be the case in Saturday's game.

Gronkowski tallied 1,124 receiving yards and 12 touchdown catches on the season and was one of the best weapons on the field for any offense in the NFL. He creates openings for the run game and other receivers by drawing so much attention to himself and is the key player in the entire Patriots offense.

Football Outsiders ranked the Ravens as the league's 20th-best defense against tight ends this season, and they didn't even have to face Gronkowski as the NFL's elite tight end option (although they did have to face Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints). If we are to use Graham as a close comparison to Gronkowski, he caught two touchdowns in his matchup with the Ravens this season.

Baltimore was a disappointing 23rd in the league against the pass, which stands in stark contrast to its fourth-ranked rush defense. That means the Patriots are going to rely on the passing game to move the ball, and Gronkowski was Brady's top receiver this season.

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Brady certainly recognized that the Ravens' strength is their front seven against the run, via Phil Perry of CSNNE.com:

"

They've got a good front. We've faced quite a few teams that have good fronts this year. Obviously [Elvis] Dumervil's had a phenomenal year. He's been a great player since he's been in the league, that's why Baltimore signed him [as a free agent before the 2013 season]. [Terrell] Suggs is as good as they get. [Haloti] Ngata's as good as they get. [Pernell] McPhee's had a good year. And then they rotate some other guys in there, Brandon Williams is a really good player so they've got a good front. 

"

Look for Gronkowski to put up big numbers against a vulnerable Baltimore secondary as the Patriots focus more on moving the ball through the air than on the ground against the strong Baltimore front.

Unfavorable Matchup: Justin Forsett vs. Patriots Defense

Larry French/Getty Images

Running back Justin Forsett was a revelation for the Ravens and fantasy owners this season when he ran for 1,266 yards and eight touchdowns, but his numbers returned to earth down the stretch.

In two of the final three games, he tallied 48 rushing yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars and a whopping 19 rushing yards on 10 carries against the Houston Texans. He also failed to find the end zone in both contests.

Things didn't get much better in the win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round when he ran 16 times for 36 yards. That was good enough for a 2.3-yards-per-carry average, and he didn't score a touchdown.

The recent fantasy struggles don't bode well for a postseason matchup with the Patriots. New England was ninth in the league against the run this season and hasn't allowed an opposing back to top 100 yards since Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears did so in Week 8.

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Forsett has been inconsistent down the stretch, and New England's defense has been dominant against the run in that same time period. It just isn't a great matchup if you believe in momentum or recent results.

What's more, the Patriots, like the Ravens, were much better against the run than the pass (17th vs. the pass this season), so look for Baltimore to use Joe Flacco's arm in an effort to move the ball in this game. 

That's not a recipe for fantasy success for those relying on Forsett.

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