Bears Free Agency: Exploring Impact of Chicago's Salary Cap

The longer the Chicago Bears wait to hire a general manager and head coach, the less time the organization will have to prepare for what lies ahead in the offseason.

Over the past week, we've given you the biggest takeaways from the 2014 season, laid out an early guide to the free-agent market, played out an entire mock draft and reviewed the most keep-or-cut decisions the Bears have on their own roster.

Now it's time to take a look at the salary cap and see how it could shape the team’s offseason plans. As of Jan. 5, 2015, the Bears have $62.3 million committed to offense in 2015 and $44.2 million committed to defense, according to OvertheCap.com, which leaves the Bears with roughly $28 million to spend in the offseason.

So let's take a look at how the cap figure affects the roster as we know it.

All quotes obtained firsthand. All contract information courtesy of OvertheCap.com.

DT Stephen Paea

Brian Kersey/Getty Images

Stephen Paea has been healthy for a full 16-game season only once in his four-year career; and go figure, it happened in 2014, his contract year.

Paea received very little recognition, despite having the best season of his career. He started all 16 games at defensive tackle, recording six sacks along the way. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rates Paea as the NFL’s 11th-best defensive tackle and fourth best at rushing the passer.

While Paea was snubbed for the Pro Bowl, there’s little chance his play won’t be recognized when free agency begins. The Bears will have a tough decision to make. Do they pay a homegrown guy who has struggled to stay healthy aside from this past season?

Re-signing Paea (at the right price) would give the Bears a lot of flexibility within the new defensive scheme. He can play inside in whichever scheme the new coordinator sees fit.  

Paea earned a shade over $1 million in 2014, and he’ll likely be able to turn that into somewhere in the range of $3-5 million per season once the market opens. If the Bears do attempt to bring back Paea, the new general manager should model it after the four-year, $18 million contract Sen'Derrick Marks just received from the Jacksonville Jaguars.

One thing that could stand in the way of Paea returning to Chicago is the Bears’ pursuit of Detroit Lions soon-to-be free-agent defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, whom the Bears are thought to be interested in.

Back in October, during an episode of NFL Insiders on ESPN, Adam Schefter said, "It wouldn't be surprising to Chicago or Dallas make a run at him."

Decisions, decisions.

WR Alshon Jeffery

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

The time has come for the Bears to make a long-term commitment to Alshon Jeffery.

For a franchise that hasn't had much success with pass-catchers, locking Jeffery down for the next few seasons should be a no-brainer. In the past two seasons, few receivers have put up better numbers than Jeffery’s 174 catches, 2,554 yards and 17 touchdowns.

During a miserable 2014 season, Jeffery still managed to post solid numbers, catching 80-plus passes for over 1,000 yards to go along with 10 touchdowns. For all that production, the Bears only paid him a little over $1 million; and he only counts $1.5 against the cap in 2015.

Jeffery’s consistency through the good and bad is why the Bears should look at extending his contract this offseason, with one year left on his rookie deal.

While it’s difficult to project what the Bears might be willing to pay Jeffery, one contract they could model it after is the five-year, $43 million extension the New York Giants handed to Victor Cruz last offseason.

The Bears have a lot of money committed to offensive players in comparison to the other side of the ball. Extending Jeffery now, before he enters his contract season, is one way to keep down money owed in the future, leaving more money to bolster one of the NFL’s worst defenses.

Two Key FA Signings

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The Bears have money to spend. Two players who would be able to step in and be impact players from the get-go are Baltimore Ravens receiver Torrey Smith and Miami Dolphins safety Jimmy Wilson.

As one-dimensional as the Bears offense was last season, primarily throwing short passes that travel less than 10 yards down the field, Smith would provide quarterback Jay Cutler (assuming Cutler stays) with a downfield threat to help open up the field.

Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are great pass-catchers, but neither of them feature blazing speed to get over top the defense. Smith has the speed and the moves to shake off the NFL’s best cornerbacks.

He caught 49 passes in 2014, 27 of which came 10-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Smith’s 15.7 yards-per-catch average ranks ninth in the league. What’s most impressive is that he caught 11 touchdown passes, an average of one touchdown per every 4.45 receptions.

As for Wilson, the Bears have been in need of a great safety since the days of Mike Brown. That’s 10-plus years. With Chris Conte set to hit free agency and very, very unlikely to return to the Bears, Wilson would have the chance to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career.

Wilson is one of the hardest-hitting safeties in the NFL. He’s the type of player the opposition fears over the middle. At 28 years old, with only four years of service, there’s a strong chance Wilson has yet to hit his prime.

He made a base salary of $1.4 million in 2014, which gives the Bears a good shot at signing him to a team-friendly, incentive-based contract.

QB Jay Cutler

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

With so much uncertainty at Halas Hall, no one really knows what lies ahead for quarterback Jay Cutler after six very up-and-down seasons in Chicago.

After being handed a massive seven-year, $126 million contract extension last offseason by former general manager Phil Emery, few thought Cutler’s tenure with the Bears would be a talking point so soon after the deal got done. But here we are.

Team chairman George McCaskey says Cutler’s future with the team will be up to the new regime: “The head coach and general manager have the discretion to decide who fits on this club, whether it’s quarterback or any other position,” he said.

What he’ll have to decide is if Cutler is salvageable under a new head coach, which would be his third in six seasons with the Bears. The only other options involve finding a trade partner or flat-out releasing him.

Cutler is due to earn $16 million guaranteed in 2015. And when the calendar strikes March 13, 2015, $10 million of the $16 million he’s due in 2016 becomes guaranteed. So the new general manager won’t have a lot of time to weigh this decision.

The odds of finding a trade partner are not that great, only because of the money he would cost his new team. NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport reported last month that the Tennessee Titans front office “started doing their research” on Cutler in case the Bears try to deal him.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the Bears might have to sweeten any potential Cutler deal with a draft pick, just so a new team will be more willing to take on his hefty contract.

The clock is ticking on Cutler. If he’s no longer the answer for the Bears, the front office would be wise to have a better plan in place before making a move. If a guess had to be made as to whether Cutler plays another down for the Bears, early money says yes.

Whatever happens to Cutler, the decision will impact the Bears' salary-cap situation for years to come. It's time to commit or get out.

DE Jared Allen

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Jared Allen recorded 85.5 sacks in his six seasons with the Minnesota Vikings before joining the Bears in 2014. Former general manager Phil Emery had high hopes for Allen when he was signed to a four-year, $32 million contract.

Allen produced just 5.5 sacks in his first year in Chicago. His struggles are a likely reason why Emery is now out of a job. And Emery might not be alone on the unemployment line, as Allen could be joining him in a few months.

Allen’s contract has the Bears in a curious position. He’s only owed $1 million in base salary next season, along with a roster bonus of $11.5 million. If the Bears were to release him, Allen would count $12.5 million against the cap in 2015.

While it would be tough for the new general manager to eat that salary, there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to the defensive side of the ball. Who will be the new defensive coordinator as soon as Mel Tucker is officially handed his walking papers? What kind of defensive scheme will be run, 4-3 or 3-4? Will there be a youth movement?

The Bears defense needs to get younger, and it will after losing 10-plus-year veterans Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs. Moving on from Allen would open the door for the Bears to draft a long-term pass-rushing option, someone who can do what Allen did early in his career: record 10-plus sacks without barely blinking an eye.