New or False Dawn for McLaren, Lewis Hamilton in Monaco Grand Prix?

There has been a huge amount of speculation surrounding the apparent return to form of Mclaren in Istanbul last week.  Many are predicting that Hamilton will break his Monaco duck at the next race, indeed if you believed everything you read particularly in the British press the championship race is well and truly heating up.

For sure the tight and twisty circuit will negate much of Ferrari's natural speed.  The latest Ferrari keeps the family tradition of loving the fast sweeping circuits and this bias naturally compromises the car's performance on the more unsettled circuits like Monaco.

Added to this is Lewis Hamilton's own declaration that Monaco is his favorite track, and witness last year’s superb performance in principality by the rising star whilst Raikkonen struggled.

Lewis Hamilton's leading pace at Paul Richard earlier today will also signal to those, like myself, that want to see a Mclaren team on the resurgence. Indeed I am quietly confident that Mclaren, and in particular Lewis Hamilton will be more than Ferrari's equal at Monte-Carlo.

That said, is it a true turning point in the season, or will we simply be seeing the results of Monte-Carlo's unique circuit? 

A circuit that demands completely unique aero components and plays to driver skill like no other.  Where overtaking is if not impossible certainly a reckless, no negligent risk to take.

What I really want to know is has Mclaren really closed the gap enough to give Hamilton the platform he needs to win the season on his and the McLaren’s package?

The thing is I doubt it. I want to believe it.  But do I really believe in my heart of hearts that the gap born out of McLaren’s self-imposed development restrictions due to spy-gate can be closed to such a point? No, I'm sorry.

I want it to be true, but jury will have to remain well and truly out until Magny-Cours.  Until then, we won't really know if the silver arrows are back on form.

Istanbul was undeniably a huge step forward, but Massa still won,  Sure Hamilton is back challenging, but it’s just too soon to declare the title race back on.

Eight points is still a commanding lead.  Barring mishap, Hamilton will need consistent race wins and podiums to claw back. To do that, he needs the Ferrari's to start taking points off each other, in a very un-Ferrari fashion.  That, or a car approaching parity with the best that Scuderia can offer.

And I for one just don't think you can draw the conclusion that Mclaren have such a car based one second place and some testing times all completed in Monte-Carlo trim. 

Even if Hamilton does win at Monaco the setup is so unique can we really disregard the Ferrari 1-2 in Spain as a transient advantage?

No.  Unfortunately for Hamilton fans, Ferrari are a lot further ahead than we'd all like to think. 

While not out of the title hunt completely Mclaren are still firmly on the back foot.