Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Complete Week 17 Preview for Detroit

The Detroit Lions travel to Wisconsin to play the Green Bay Packers this Sunday. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox. On the line? Just the NFC North title, a first-round bye and at least one home playoff game.

Yes, there is that whole "Detroit hasn't won in the state of Wisconsin since Brett Favre was an Atlanta Falcon" thing. That will matter to some analysts, but I assure you neither team gives a rip about that stat.

"

Quin: "It doesn't matter what happened in 1998. It doesn't matter what happened in 1892. This year's team hasn't been to Lambeau yet."

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 24, 2014"

Safety Glover Quin is spot-on. This team has been doing things differently under head coach Jim Caldwell, and reporters won't have any luck getting its players to engage much on the topic.

The only relevant result to Caldwell's group will come this week. So let's look at everything leading up to the de facto division championship game, break down the important pieces on each side and end with a prediction.

Lions' Week 16 Recap

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Is anybody else sick of saying "a win is a win?"

I didn't think so. Detroit's 20-14 win over the Jimmy Clausen-led Chicago Bears won't inspire a lot of confidence moving forward. In fact, the only positives  the Lions should take from it other than a victory is that it was full of teaching moments.

Those moments included some disturbing throws from Matthew Stafford. He received pressure early in the game and started to feel phantom pass-rushers. It's akin to when you swear your phone vibrated in your pocket even though it's on the table.

Stafford chucked two red-zone interceptions. One gave rise to memories of plays we haven't seen from the sixth-year signal-caller since he was learning his first system. For instance, despite rolling away from the pressure unscathed, he lofted it into the middle of the end zone, giving Brock Vereen his first career interception. 

The defense was much stouter than people realized. Plenty of spectators have focused on Clausen almost pulling out a win, not realizing that if Jeremy Ross didn't muff a punt and Julian Stanford didn't run into the punter, the Bears would have been shutout.

But that's what this game was about—missed opportunities due to a lack of focus. If you give Detroit two field goals instead of two red-zone turnovers and Ross catches the ball as he's supposed to, the Lions have an easy 26-point skunking.

Hopefully, that near-miss will be all head coach Jim Caldwell needs to get this team back on track because the stakes are too high now.

News and Notes

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Rai-ola of Sunshine

It's been barely a month since center Dominic Raiola dove at a New England Patriots defender's knees—while his team killed the clock—and took a swing at the back of another's head. 

Now, the NFL offices have no choice but to remove Raiola's ability to punch his time clock. His egregious decision to stomp down on Chicago Bears defensive tackle Ego Ferguson's ankle after a play last week has earned him the timeout this large child needs:

"

Dominic Raiola's one-game suspension has been upheld on appeal. Sits out Sunday vs GB

— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) December 23, 2014"

There's no shortage of hot opinions filled with facts and logic on this issue. You can find Jeff Risdon's here and Mike Freeman's here, where both Bleacher Report colleagues argue that Raiola's time has passed, although in different ways.

No R-E-S-P-E-C-T

While Aaron Rodgers has added to his legacy by telling everyone in Green Bay to cool out, it's been a different tune in Motown for counterpart Matthew Stafford. And Jim Caldwell, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press captured, is sick of it:

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I think there's a lack of appreciation for him around here, I think, at times," Caldwell said at his weekly news conference Monday. "Let me just tell you something: He's a man's man. He's a tough guy. He gets hit out there every single ballgame, he hangs in there, and there may be one he'd like to have back, but then there's a couple others, or one other that's probably not all his fault.

"

The last bit of the praise is muddled, but it's easy to see what he means regarding toughness. Stafford has been sacked more than all but three other quarterbacks (43) while enduring countless other hits.

He hasn't done himself any favors with the fans by throwing for just 19 touchdowns, though he has dealt with the second most drops (35) in the league, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). And don't forget the three that were sure touchdowns against New England.

Fans were hoping for a New Orleans Saints-like explosion from Stafford this year. I understand the frustration. Yet there are signs of progress, like the drop in his interception rate. Another year in the system should help him get comfortable enough to look off defenders instead of thinking too much about where guys are supposed to be.

The Fans Didn't Bowl a Perfect Game

The Pro Bowl rosters were announced earlier this week, and the Lions found three invitations wrapped under the tree for safety Glover Quin, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and wide receiver Calvin Johnson.

But as often happens once all the wrapping paper is cleared from the floor, there are a few who are displeased. One such player was Golden Tate, and he discussed it with Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press:  

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I'm a little disappointed, not that I was planning on being there anyway," he said. "But it is what it is. I did everything in my power to I guess earn the respect of being there. But we're on to something bigger and better right now, so I'm not too worried about it.

"

Tate displayed the right attitude, brushing the snub into the dustpan. He does have a point, however. In his first year with Detroit, the former Seattle Seahawk has grabbed 96 passes for 1,286 yards and four touchdowns.

But before he moved on, Tate was sure to explain that other Lions were deserving as well, specifically mentioning DeAndre Levy. Again, the man is on to something, as Levy currently grades out as the third-best 4-3 outside linebacker in the league, per PFF. 

Few other players for Detroit were consistent enough to warrant an invite. There are arguments to be made for Ezekiel Ansah and Darius Slay, yet neither was as dominant as Tate or Levy.

Injury Report

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Player	Position	Injury	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Status
Nick Fairley	DT	Knee	NP	NP	NP	Out
Calvin Johnson	WR	Ankle	NP	LP	FP	Probable
Joique Bell	RB	Achilles	LP	FP	FP	Probable
Mohammed Seisay	CB	Hamstring	FP	FP	FP	Probable

*All injury reports sourced from DetroitLions.com. 

The biggest game of the year—some would say the last 20 years—sees Detroit the healthiest it's been all season.

Calvin Johnson's inclusion is nothing but a precaution. He is rarely listed as a "full participant" early in the week, and unless something more damning comes out, sleep easy knowing that Detroit won't be devoid its most dominating weapon.

Detroit could definitely use Nick Fairley to harass Aaron Rodgers and his ailing calf. Unfortunately, there's nothing to suggest that this is the week Fairley makes his comeback. 

There isn't a reason to be concerned about Mohammed Seisay either, mostly because he rarely plays even when healthy. And with Don Carey playing often and well in Detroit's nickel package last week, Seisay will be able to layer up with as many coats as he would like to fend off the frigid Wisconsin weather.

The real concern should be saved for Joique Bell. Detroit's leading rusher is at least on the practice field, but nobody else on the roster is as effective using a physical style of running.

The Lions will sorely miss him and his chain-moving ability against the high-flying Packers offense. George Winn will get a few carries if Bell doesn't play; he just won't be able to replicate Bell's performance. 

X-Factor and Matchups to Watch

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

DT Ndamukong Suh vs. Green Bay's Interior Offensive Line

Big players make big plays in big games. For Detroit, no player looms larger than Ndamukong Suh.

Suh is every bit as dominant as the hype. He's the second most productive pass-rusher on the team with 54 quarterback disruptions, per Pro Football Focus. And running on him isn't an option. He has 33 stops (plays where he caused an offensive failure), which is the second most for any defensive tackle.

Green Bay's Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang rank No. 3 and 4 among guards, and center Corey Linsley is in the top five for his position. If any unit is capable of slowing Suh, it's this one. 

LB DeAndre Levy vs. RB Eddie Lacy

Aaron Rodgers is an MVP front-runner. Yet it's Eddie Lacy who will hold the offensive key to this game for Green Bay.

Green Bay's offense is much more balanced than you would assume. While the Packers throw for the seventh most yards (269.1) in the league, the rushing offense trails closely behind, checking in at No. 11 (117.7). 

Detroit's top rushing defense (63.8 yards allowed) relies on Levy. He leads the way with 140 tackles, of which 75 are considered stops. If he can help put Rodgers in obvious uncomfortable passing situations, Suh and Ezekiel Ansah will get to test Rodgers' calf.

OTs Cornelius Lucas and Riley Reiff vs. LBs Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews

We've seen what happens if Matthew Stafford gets pressured. He starts lowering his eyes and anticipating defenders instead of keeping his vision downfield. 

Peppers and Matthews have combined for 17 sacks and 53 hurries this year. They are the pistons that drive the Packers pass rush, which is the reason Green Bay has the 10th-best pass defense.

Reiff acquitted himself well in the first matchup, giving up just one hurry. Lucas gave up two hurries in just over half the snaps, so the tight ends will certainly be tasked with helping him from time to time.

Lions' X-Factor of the Week: QB Matthew Stafford

Calvin Johnson is the bigger offensive star, but Matthew Stafford mans the vital position. So the latter gets the nod here. This team won't have a chance if Stafford doesn't bring his best stuff to Wisconsin.

But Stafford doesn't need to throw four touchdowns for Detroit to win. He just needs to get back to smart football and take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves. If he can find the open man and spread the ball around, Detroit's offense will be successful enough to get the win.

Prediction

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

I could have talked about Detroit's defense exclusively on the prior matchup slide. The Lions were able to contain Green Bay in Week 3 because they didn't give up any big plays and tackled well. They'll need a repeat performance to bring home the division title.

That has to be the priority again. And despite the Packers' torrid pace since that loss in Detroit, they've struggled against a similar defense (Buffalo Bills).

Thus, the magic number will be 24. If Matthew Stafford and Company can find three touchdowns and Matt Prater provides the difference, the Lions can win because of their defense:

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Packers offense scored 2 TDs in the last 3 games against the Lions. Lions defense knows how to slow down GB offense.

— BeastMode (@BeastFBall) December 25, 2014"

Unfortunately, I don't trust the offense.

There isn't enough (or any) evidence that the offense is capable of putting together a full game against a decent opponent. Green Bay only gives up 21.9 a game, which is 12th overall.

I'm not saying Detroit doesn't have a chance. The disrespect from every prognosticator predicting the Packers combined with the talent on offense and a stout defense make this a tough call.

But last week's sloppiness is too fresh, and that type of performance will only mean another loss at Lambeau.

Score: Green Bay 23, Detroit 13

All advanced stats, grades and positional rankings are courtesy of Pro Football Focus and require a subscription. 

Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is @BrandonAlisoglu.