Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys: Complete Week 16 Preview for Indianapolis
The Indianapolis Colts have already clinched a playoff spot heading into Week 16, but they'll still be looking to get a big win on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.
With a 10-4 record, the Colts have once again put together a strong season. However, they have yet to assert themselves as legitimate contenders in the AFC, struggling in recent weeks against opponents like the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns.
This week's game against the Cowboys will easily be the Colts' toughest test since their Week 11 loss against the New England Patriots. The Cowboys are currently on top of the NFC East with a 10-4 record as well due to a defense that's exceeded its initially low expectations along with a balanced offensive attack.
The Colts defense understands just how important it will be to contain Tony Romo and the Cowboys rushing game. As safety Mike Adams told Mike Wells from ESPN.com:
"That’s a challenge and we’re going to take that personally. We put that challenge on ourselves. That’s why this game is huge for us. I heard a rumor about sitting players. You can’t do that. Not now because this is a test for us on where we’re at, where we’re going. Anybody can get hot now. We’re that team, this game we can prove that.
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Sunday's game will have playoff implications for both teams, so let's take a look at this week's team preview for the Colts as they look prove themselves against one of the stronger teams in the NFC.
Colts Week 15 Recap
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Once again, it wasn't the prettiest of wins for the Colts in Week 15 against the Texans, but thanks to some solid play from the defense, they were able to come away with a 17-10 win.
Another sluggish start offensively put the Colts in an early hole. After a couple of drives that ended in punts, the third offensive drive ended after Andrew Luck threw an interception right to Kendrick Lewis, who returned it 27 yards for a touchdown for the first points of the game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick tried to get the offense moving for the Texans to put more pressure on the Colts, but their defense continued to hold. Luck was able to tie things up on the first play of the second quarter on a 26-yard touchdown to Hakeem Nicks. The Texans tried to answer back, but Fitzpatrick suffered a broken leg a few plays in, forcing rookie Tom Savage to take over under center.
The Colts fumbled in Houston territory on their next drive, but Savage coughed the ball up on the very next play to give Indianapolis the ball back, leading to a touchdown pass to Dwayne Allen to put them up, 14-7, heading into halftime.
The second half featured much less excitement. There was no scoring in the third quarter, and the two teams exchanged field goals in the fourth before the Texans had a chance to lead a game-tying drive with around two minutes remaining. However, Savage couldn't get anything going, and Vontae Davis was able to get an interception to seal the win.
Sloppy starts continue to hurt the Colts, and while they got the win last week, it will be much harder for them to recover on Sunday against Dallas.
News and Notes
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Colts Preparing to Face DeMarco Murray
Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray has had a terrific season, putting up 1,687 yards and 11 touchdowns on just 351 carries. However, the 26-year-old required surgery on his left hand earlier this week, and it is unclear whether or not he will play.
The Colts don't seem to be worrying about whether or not he will play and are preparing for this week as if he will be in the backfield.
"He's going to play," Colts cornerback Erik Walden said of Murray, according to Zak Keefer from the Indianapolis Star. "It's a hand. It's not like it's one of his wheels. I'm fully expecting him to play."
Murray has been practicing this week, which is a good sign that he'll be able to play on Sunday. The Colts defensive line takes pride in trying to stop the run, so we'll see what they can do against a likely Pro Bowl running back.
Pat McAfee Named Colts "Man of The Year"
Colts punter Pat McAfee has become one of the most popular players on the team because of his personality and activity on Twitter, but his work around the community was also recognized earlier this week when he received the team's Man of the Year award.
The award recognizes a player's work both on and off the field, and head coach Chuck Pagano spoke quite highly about McAfee in a team release, per Kevin Bowen from Colts.com:
"Not only is he a great football player, but what he does off the field is tremendous. It’s a great honor. It’s one of the highest honors I think you can get in the National Football League. And to have the opportunity to be the Walter Payton Man of the Year at the end of the day is a testament to Pat’s hard work. We’re very, very proud of Pat and more proud of the stuff he gives back to this community and what he does outside of football. A great honor.
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This may not be the only award McAfee receives this season, as he's also been one of the best punters in the league. McAfee is currently averaging 43.7 net yards per punt with 27 of his 59 punts landing inside the 20-yard line, making a Pro Bowl selection a legitimate possibility.
Colts Ready to Play at AT&T Stadium
Lucas Oil Stadium is one of the nicer sports venues in the country, but few match up to the size and extravagance of Jerry's World in Dallas.
The Cowboys may be just 3-4 at home this season, but playing in that kind of environment can be an overwhelming experience for the unprepared. Veteran Mike Adams has been doing what he can to prepare the younger players for the environment.
"I tell the young guys go out there in pregame and start gazing," Adams told Mike Wells. "Start looking up, look at the cheerleaders on the pole, see how long the screen is, from 20 to the 20. Just get it all out of your system because once that ball's snapped and once the game starts going, you've got to stay focused."
The Colts have gone 4-2 while on the road this season, but they have yet to play in an environment like this one, so we'll see how they respond coming out of the gate.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Gosder Cherilus | OT | Out |
| Josh Cribbs | RS | Probable |
| Vontae Davis | CB | Questionable |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR | Questionable |
| Joe Reitz | OG | Out |
| Hugh Thornton | OG | Out |
| Erik Walden | OLB | Probable |
| Reggie Wayne | WR | Probable |
Note: All injury statuses are from Friday's practice via Colts.com
Offensive line depth will be a concern once again this week for the Colts, who will be without Gosder Cherilus, Joe Reitz and Hugh Thornton. Luck has had enough issues with protection this season, and being without two starters likely won't help. However, Cherilus has seriously struggled all year, and the argument can be made that he's been more of a liability when on the field.
The two big concerns this week are with T.Y. Hilton and Vontae Davis. Hilton left last week's game early due to a hamstring injury, and he was unable to practice all week. Without him, the Colts will have to rely on Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks and Donte Moncrief.
Wayne has struggled as of late and while Nicks showed flashes last week, he's been nonexistent the second half of this season. This may be a game where the Colts finally let Moncrief loose.
As for Davis, his presence will be sorely missed if he can't go. The Cowboys have one of the best receivers in the league in Dez Bryant, and Davis might be their only option to slow him down. Without Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler would have to cover him, and that will be no easy task.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Colts Secondary vs. Dez Bryant
We just talked about how Davis may not be able to play on Sunday, and that means that the Colts may need a group effort to contain Bryant. Few have had an answer for the 26-year-old, who has caught 79 passes for 1,148 yards and 13 touchdowns in 14 games.
“He’s a nightmare. He’s one of the most competitive guys that we’ve seen,” Pagano said of Bryant per Nick Eatman of DallasCowboys.com. “He’s a great talent. He’s a great player. He’s a combination of size, athleticism and speed. But his competitive nature and his drive and his passion for the game and for his team and for winning is second to none. The guy’s a monster.”
The Colts rank second in the league in covering No. 1 receivers, according to Football Outsiders, but that's due to Davis. Without him, it might be a long day for the Colts secondary trying to cover Bryant.
Trent Richardson/Dan Herron vs. Rolando McClain
In order for Luck to get the passing game going on Sunday, the Colts can't be a one-dimensional offense. The running backs in Trent Richardson and Dan "Boom" Herron are going to need to produce, but Cowboys linebacker Rolando McClain will be trying to prevent that.
McClain has been a valuable linebacker for the Cowboys stopping the run, rushing the passer or even dropping back in coverage. The Cowboys allow 110.4 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry, but those numbers would be much worse if McClain wasn't in the middle of the defense.
Richardson has struggled all year, but he'll need to have one of his better games on Sunday. I expect Herron to break off some nice runs, but since he continues to split carries, it will be equally important for Richardson to produce.
Colts Defensive Line vs. Cowboys Offensive Line
We saw in Week 11 against the Patriots what a reliable running game can do against the Colts, and that could spell trouble for again this week. The defensive line has Arthur Jones back, but they've yet to face an offensive line quite like the one the Cowboys have.
Football Outsiders has the Cowboys as having the best offensive line in blocking for the ground game, putting up 4.51 adjusted line yards. Along with a reliable left tackle in Tyron Smith, the Cowboys also have younger talent that's helped make them one of the best units in football with Zack Martin and Travis Frederick.
The Colts have depth on their defensive line, but they have yet to be tested quite like this. If Murray is able to go and is running behind that offensive line, things could get ugly in a hurry unless the defensive line wins the battle in the trenches.
Colts' X-Factor of the Week: Donte Moncrief
This year's rookie wide receiver class may one day be one of the best ever, and Moncrief could end up being a long-term piece in Indianapolis. He's slowly been worked in more and more on offense, but with Hilton's status uncertain along with the clear struggles of Wayne and Nicks, this is Moncrief's time to shine.
Moncrief has caught just 27 passes this year, but they've gone for 423 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 15.7 yards per reception. At 6'2'' and 221 pounds, he presents a real mismatch for opposing secondaries.
If the Colts defense can't hold, then the offense can't afford to sputter, and they'll need a big-play guy like Moncrief to step up and help Luck get the offense going.
Prediction
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Slow starts the past few weeks have made things harder on the Colts than they should have been, but going against a playoff-caliber opponent like the Cowboys, any slip-ups could spell disaster on Sunday.
Turnovers have also been a huge problem for the Colts recently, with fumbles and interceptions killing momentum. The Colts are tied with the Chicago Bears for the third-most giveaways in the league at 28, and the Cowboys have capitalized on opponents' mistakes with 24 takeaways this year.
The defense has held opponents for most of the year, but that's because they've played few legitimate quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky has relied on blitz schemes to rattle quarterbacks who struggle under pressure, but Tony Romo has a solid offensive line in front of him and a plethora of weapons to work with. We saw what happened without Davis in Pittsburgh, and that could happen again in Dallas.
I expect Dallas to have little trouble moving the ball on offense, and in order for the Colts to stay competitive in this game, they're going to need a near-perfect performance from Luck and the offense. Unfortunately, that just hasn't been the case recently despite going against weaker defenses. Without Hilton as a security blanket in the passing game, things could get even harder.
The Colts aren't an elite NFL team, at least not yet. They'll be a tough team to beat once the playoffs begin because of the man under center and one of the best special teams units in the league, but for Sunday, the Cowboys have too much talent that will present serious mismatches if Hilton and Davis can't play.
Prediction: Colts 24, Cowboys 34
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