Is Maurice Jones-Drew worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in PPR leagues?

Many are mistaking the view I expressed in my video on Maurice Jones-Drew as one in which I’m saying he will see 300 rushing attempts. I’m not saying that; I’m just saying I won’t bet against it because I believe it is possible.

My breakdown of Jones-Drew:

Positives:

• He was given a $31 million contract to be the man, and regardless of what anyone thinks, he will see most of the touches.
• The signing of free-agent wide receiver Tory Holt will help stretch the defense, thus opening some room for Jones-Drew to run.
• He has a nose for the end zone, with 40 touchdowns (including kick returns) over the last three years.
• The offensive line is healthy and built for the running game.
• Head coach Jack Del Rio wants to return to a pound-it-out offense.
• Last year, he carried the ball 18 times with goal to go and scored on 10 of them.
• 11 of the team’s 15 touchdowns inside the 10-yard line last season went to him.

Negatives:

• He has never had a 200-plus carry season in his career.
• His yards per carry have dropped every year: 5.7 to 4.6 to 4.2 last year.
• His fumbles increased from three combined in 2006 and 2007 to six last year.
• He plays special teams, though one would assume those days are over beginning this year.

My projections (There is a high/low range, but I just want to present the raw numbers):

• Rush attempts: 282
• Yards per attempt: 4.46
• Rushing yards: 1,258
• Receptions: 49
• Yards per catch: 9.5
• Receiving yards: 466
• Rushing touchdowns: 13
• Receiving touchdowns: 1
• Fumbles: 3

Jones-Drew is a legitimate choice for No. 1 except for the fact he has no shot of approaching 2,000 yards. He will probably not see anywhere near the 60-plus receptions he had last year.

As you can see, I don’t expect him to see 300 rush attempts, but with 282 attempts, he won’t be far off. In a high/low setting, he could cross that threshold.

I predict Peterson can make up the reception difference through his rushing yards as most leagues give 10 points per 100 yards. That is why, although I don’t mind seeing Jones-Drew in the top two to five, I don’t agree with those who are taking him No. 1 overall in point-per-reception leagues.

What are your thoughts? Agree or disagree?

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