North Carolina, UCLA, and Unrealistic Expectations

(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Last season's Tar Heel team was certainly one of the most talented teams college basketball has seen in a long time.

That talent led North Carolina to consecutive Final Four appearances and one of the most lopsided National Championship wins in recent memory (it was never as close as the final score, which wasn't even that close).

Most of that talent is gone now, only to be replaced by one of the top-ranked recruiting classes in the nation.

The expectations are certainly high for the Tar Heels' new class, and the buzz surrounding the upcoming season has the Tar Heels back in contention for another deep run in March.

There's no doubt that UNC has the talent to match up to it's likely Top 10 ranking—Ed Davis would have been a lottery pick in this year's draft, and incoming freshmen John Henson and Dexter Strickland are two of the best players coming into the ACC this year.

The Tar Heels will certainly be present in analysts' early season Final Four discussions, but does this year's UNC really have what it takes to once again compete for a national title, or will they be the victim of unrealistic expectations based on the achievements of recent Tar Heel teams and the predicted success of highly touted (yet unproven) recruits?

Last year's UCLA Bruins started the season with similar expectations.

Like this season's Tar Heel team, they began the year coming off consecutive appearances in the Final Four.

They boasted the nation's top recruiting class (North Carolina's incoming class is ranked as one of the top three classes according to most major recruiting sites).

Like UNC with Davis this year, UCLA had an NBA first-round draft pick returning in Darren Collison.

And, like UNC this season with John Henson, the Bruins had an NBA-ready freshman in Jrue Holiday.

Despite what seemed to be a recipe for sure-fire success last season, UCLA failed to live up to their preseason Top 10 ranking.

That's not to say their season was a disappointment—they finished 26-9 overall with the second-best record in the PAC-10.  But, despite their relatively solid year, they didn't meet their early season expectations, unfair as they were.

The truth of the matter is that there is no guaranteed method for predicting how successful a team will be aside from having a roster full of experienced, proven, NBA-caliber players (like last season's UNC).

Sometimes highly ranked recruiting classes mean instant success for a team.  When Ohio State brought in Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. in 2006, the Buckeyes played in the national title game.

But for every 2006-07 Ohio State, there are several teams (like last season's UCLA) whose top-rated classes take time to find Final Four success.

Making preseason predictions based on anything but what has been proven on a college court leads to young teams having to deal with the stigma of a disappointing season when their season was anything but, despite what the expectations were.

This season's Tar Heel team will certainly start with high expectations, perhaps too high for a young (albeit talented) group of players to live up to.

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