Preseason NFL Odds: Top Football Handicappers Share Winning Picks Secret

(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The great Emmitt Smith did a commercial in which he said that championships are won in the preseason. Of course I found it ironic that in said year he missed the entire preseason and the first two games of the regular schedule before leading Dallas to the Super Bowl. But I digress. The thrust is that handicappers have a whole heap to win in the preseason NFL betting as well.

I am exceedingly sure that you have heard it and percentages say that you have uttered it as well. When I first began handicapping I espoused the costly naivety too.

The fallacy is that nobody in their right mind would try to foretell preseason battles. The belief is that there are too many unknown factors to consider, too many nameless and faceless Division II players on each side of the ball who will be getting their only taste of the show for a few plays or series of downs.

True the argument behind this deduction is certainly based on fact, but the conclusion in not only untrue, but very much the contrary.

The reality is that smart players realize that such mentioned disadvantages actually apply to the sportsbook and not the gambler. With the proliferation of offshore sportsbooks and the competitiveness leading to sportsbooks posting advanced lines earlier and earlier, the advantage continues to swing more and more towards the player, well at least to the wise player.

Preseason lines are made now a week in advance. After the first week, so often once both opponents have completed their preceding contest, a line is posted as rapidly as possible for the upcoming week.

The truthfulness is that the linesmakers have to deal with a lot more uncertainty that the bettor does. Of course lines do adjust—sometimes over adjust based on this information and the public responding to it, but the sportsbooks are still limited in exactly how much they can move the lines or they would get destroyed by line shoppers and “middle” players. “Bette Middlers” is what my cohort OC Dooley likes to call them.

Hometown newspapers are a Godsend for handicapping preseason football. Rarely is there a game in which coaches will not give out accurate information on quarterback and key player rotations as well as injuries. It is not remotely uncommon to find out because of injuries and other reasons that a team for example may be without four of their top six offensive linemen or many analogous situations.

As a general rule of thumb both offensive and defensive schemes are pretty vanilla in the exhibition games (apologies to the late Mr. Rozelle, that’s what they are). But yet when teams have a new head coach or new coordinator or a lot of new players projected to play key positions often coaches will throw in more stunts, blitzes, etc.

But because the purpose is for the players to learn a system and not to catch their opponent off-guard, such game plan is almost never kept secret. However rarely in preseason do coaches actually prepare for their opponent. Thus when research uncovers that one team is working on some more sophisticated packages, while the opponent is going to keep it straightforward, the big plus goes to team planning on mixing it up.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?