Dwyane Wade Getting Biggest Test of Post-LeBron James Era

No pressure, Dwyane Wade. 

Actually, that's a lie.

There's a ton of pressure on the Miami Heat 2-guard at this point in the 2014-15 campaign, as he's being tasked with carrying a decimated lineup to glory. The defending champions of the Eastern Conference have struggled during the first season of the post-LeBron James era, and now things are poised to get worse. 

A lot worse, in fact, if Wade can't pass this test with flying colors. And unfortunately, it may be a test designed to make even the best and brightest fail. 

Injuries. So Many Injuries. 

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Normally, it's Wade himself who's the subject of injury discussions, as he's had quite a bit of trouble with his knees over the last few years. Plus, he experienced some hamstring tightness earlier this season, leading to a prolonged absence. 

But, in an interesting turn of events, it's now Wade serving as one of the seemingly few healthy bodies under Erik Spoelstra's supervision. 

Chris Andersen has returned to the lineup, so that's a positive. The point guards are in working order as well, though Shabazz Napier has underwhelmed and been sent back and forth from the team's D-League affiliate. Danny Granger is only sick, so at least he won't be out for too long. 

Nonetheless, the frontcourt has thinned out immensely, and that puts the Heat in a pickle. 

"The Heat currently is in desperate need of an additional veteran presence in its frontcourt," writes Joseph Goodman for the Miami Herald, "But adding a player to the roster would mean abandoning the development of a younger talent."

Josh McRoberts is out for the season with a torn meniscus that requires surgery. That's a huge loss, as his playmaking ability was supposed to help the Heat compensate for their lackluster distributing floor generals and the absence of a certain four-time MVP.  Even more importantly, Chris Bosh is out indefinitely with a calf injury and could miss weeks, not just days. 

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That's not a good combination, and it's led to some rather nondescript players getting significant time in big situations. Even in a victory over the struggling Brooklyn Nets, the Heat had to give over 40 minutes to Luol Deng—who might have had flashbacks to Tom Thibodeau and the Chicago Bulls—while starting Justin Hamilton and Udonis Haslem. Andersen, Shawne Williams and Napier were all significant parts of their rotation. 

Not even Wade was truly healthy, as he was fighting through a stomach virus that kept him out of shootaround. 

"I had three pieces of toast and two bananas," the future Hall of Famer told The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "That's all I had to eat today, but it got me through. If I'm going to be out here I might as well do something. Otherwise I might as well have stayed in the hotel."

He has to do something.

And not just because his team is crippled right now, but because the Heat aren't very good. Sorry, but there's no need for sugarcoating here. If he can't turn back the clock and display some superstar form—ideally the form he played with in, say, 2009—this squad might not even make the playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference. 

The Heat's Overall Struggle

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After that victory over the Nets, the Heat improved their record to 12-13. If the season ended before Wednesday's games, they'd only just sneak into the playoffs as a No. 7 seed, and that's not exactly something to write home about. 

But without McRoberts and Bosh, things could get uglier. 

Despite his small role, the former Charlotte Bobcat had an immense impact on his new team. With him on the court, Miami outscored the opposition by 5.3 points per 100 possessions. Without him, it was outscored by 6.8 points over the same span.

Obviously, that's a huge difference. 

And it's still not as large an impact as the one Bosh had on this organization. Losing McRoberts for the season is a big deal, but playing without Bosh for a few weeks might be an even bigger issue, pushing the team into a huge hole. 

Miami only improves by 2.8 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court. While that might not seem like a lot, it's not as though the team spends that much time with him on the pine. He's the clear-cut leader of this team, and his offense and underrated defensive skills serve as the Heat's engine on a regular basis.

But let's forget about the injuries for a second.

Despite popular perception, the Heat were by no means a playoff lock heading into the season, even if the overall disgracefulness of the Eastern Conference still made it likely they would play more than 82 games. That sentiment has basically been confirmed thus far, though injuries do serve as a convenient excuse.

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That said, the initial expectations aren't the issue here. Instead, let's focus on just how mediocre the defending Eastern champions have been, regardless of where they were supposed to finish before games were actually played. 

Basketball-Reference.com keeps track of simple rating system (SRS), a one-number-tells-all stat that focuses on strength of schedule and margin of victory. After all, win-loss records can be rather misleading, as both a road victory by 20 points against a powerhouse and a one-point home win in overtime against the Philadelphia 76ers both count as just a single successful outing. Those should in no way be equivalents, though they are when only looking at records.

With a minus-3.8 margin of victory and a schedule that's been easier than the league average thus far, the Heat have a putrid minus-4.03 SRS. It places them at No. 23 throughout the NBA and leaves them trailing the following teams in the East, in order from best to worst: the Toronto Raptors, Cleveland Cavaliers, Washington Wizards, Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets. 

Not one...not two...not three...well, you get the point.

Nine teams have been superior to the Heat during the early portion of the 2014-15 campaign, and even if the Bucks regress significantly following Jabari Parker's torn ACL, that's still enough for the Heat to be lottery bound. 

Don't believe that measure? Here's another one, though it looks upon the Heat with slightly more favor. 

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Over the last year or so, I've compiled a database with information about each and every team throughout NBA history. Since 1974, we have information on the four factors (effective field-goal percentage, rebounding percentage, turnover percentage and free throws per field-goal attempt), and we can use that data to form a projection model for current teams. Though I won't go into the details of the entire process, the factors are adjusted to account for inter-era trends, and they're weighted according to how strongly they correlate with winning. 

The results of this model, which we're calling FATS (factor adjusted team similarities), are based on how closely a current squad matches the statistical profiles of historical teams, and the win projection is derived from the actual wins that the top 10 matches earned back in the day. 

Here are the results for the Eastern Conference through Dec. 16: 

Team	Record	Pace	FATS Projection	Most Similar Team
1. Wizards	18-6	62-20	56-26	2013-14 Warriors
2. Raptors	19-6	62-20	51-31	2007-08 Warriors
3. Hawks	17-7	58-24	51-31	2001-02 Pistons
4. Bulls	15-9	51-31	49-33	1982-83 SuperSonics
5. Cavaliers	14-9	50-32	47-35	1989-90 76ers
6. Bucks	13-12	43-39	39-43	2008-09 Bobcats
7. Heat	12-13	39-43	38-44	2003-04 Celtics
8. Celtics	8-14	30-52	37-45	2011-12 Rockets
9. Nets	10-13	36-46	35-47	2005-06 Timberwolves
10. Magic	10-17	30-52	32-50	2010-11 Hawks
11. Pacers	8-17	26-56	28-54	1983-84 Cavaliers
12. Hornets	6-18	21-61	25-57	2013-14 Bobcats
13. Pistons	5-20	16-66	25-57	2013-14 Cavaliers
14. Knicks	5-22	15-67	23-59	1995-96 Raptors
15. 76ers	2-22	7-75	15-67	1988-89 Heat

The good news: FATS says that the Heat are still going to make the playoffs, though it'll be close and doesn't leave the team much margin for error. 

The bad news: This projection system doesn't take injuries into account. So while the Bucks will struggle after losing Jabari Parker, FATS also isn't incorporating the news that McRoberts is lost for the season and Bosh is out indefinitely. As a result, it seems likely that the Heat might actually fail to meet that current pace, though the opposite argument that they've already lost plenty of games to injuries does apply as well. 

Overall, the point here is that the Heat are by no means a dominant team. Whether using FATS or SRS, the team isn't exactly a lock for the playoffs, even in the weaker half of the NBA. And that places a heavy burden on Wade, especially while some of his most notable teammates are recovering from injuries. After all, he's the premier player on this team and remains the face of the franchise. 

Being the last man standing—or really, the last star standing, in this case—leads to quite a bit of responsibility.

So again, no pressure, Wade. It's been a long time since he's been faced with this type of burden, and there's no telling how he'll handle it. 

Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Dec. 17's games.