Breaking Down Chris Bosh's Case for the Basketball Hall of Fame

Throughout his career, Chris Bosh been a good—occasionally very good—but never great basketball player.

His finest, at least his most impactful, seasons were spent as a tertiary threat on a Miami Heat team that never quite became a dynasty. This is tremendous. It’s a lot more professional success than most of us can dream of, including the author of this post. But to my mind at least, it probably isn’t Hall of Fame worthy.

Granted, I believe in keeping a high bar for the Hall. When too many are inducted, it diminishes the honor. When everyone’s family, there is no family. To repeat an oft-repeated argument, if there’s a debate about whether someone belongs in the Hall of Fame, he probably doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame.

That out of the way, I do think—based on his accomplishments, statistical and otherwise—that there’s a chance Bosh will get an opportunity to pledge the small fraternity in Springfield, Massachusetts, one day. Our objective here is evaluating the likelihood he gets in. His chances, I think, are not minuscule.

Bosh, at the moment, has 98.2 career win shares, per Basketball-Reference.com. This is good for 79th place all-time in the NBA. While win shares isn’t the beginning and end of the conversation, it’s a good proxy for the way voters evaluate players and, as the analytic movement deepens in influence, will likely be a stronger indicator still by the time Bosh becomes a candidate.

In the NBA’s all-time win shares leaderboard, you have to scroll down to No. 39 to find an eligible player who hasn’t been inducted. (Sorry Buck Williams.) So No. 79 probably won’t do it.

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But Bosh still has a lot of basketball ahead of him. He’s 30, but he has showed no significant wear and tear and appears poised to have at least several more seasons where he performs at his current level.

This, of course, is far from a sure thing. NBA players tend to peak in their mid-20s, then drop off precipitously after their 32nd birthdays. In the words of economist Dave Berri, “They age like milk.”

Star players, though, tend to resist the effects of age better than most, and there’s some evidence that, with the increasingly sophisticated sports science techniques teams use to keep their players healthy, this generation of athletes will have a longer shelf life.

According to Basketball-Reference.com, in his four full seasons in Miami, the Bostrich has averaged 8.55 win shares a season. In 2014-15, with 2.2, he’s roughly on pace to hit this mark.

If we assume Bosh produces at roughly this level—which is probably a bit generous, but we’re conducting this exercise in a spirit of generosity—that would leave him with roughly 40 additional win shares by the time his max contract with the Heat runs out at the conclusion of the 2018-19 season.

This would put a then 35-year-old Bosh at 138 career win shares, which, today, would place him at No. 28 on the all-time list—between future Hall of Famer Jason Kidd and actual Hall of Famer Bob Pettit.

Let’s say he rides off into the sunset at this point—rich, happy, healthy and with, what’s by all indications, a decent, well-adjusted family. Chris Bosh won life.

But where does that leave his HOF case? Statistically, he’ll be a close call. He’ll have the raw numbers to be a part of the conversation, but voters will also remember that he was never exactly dominant and was, in his own way, a facilitator rather than a lead player. With his mid-range shooting, and the space it created, he enabled conditions where other players could be at their best.

But he’ll also have the intangibles.

Bosh has appeared in nine All-Star games and will end up in more. More consequential still are those titles. Bosh already has a pair of rings from his days with Miami’s Big Three, plus two more Finals appearances.

If Pat Riley is able to slap together another juggernaut in the summer of ’16 (very possible considering the class) or even jump in line and rebuild a bit next summer, it’s well within the realm of possibility that the CB4 could add another ring, maybe even two, before he calls it quits.

Then we’re talking. If Bosh puts together another four- and three-quarters seasons where he produces at roughly the level of the preceding four and manages to win more jewelry—basically, the best case scenario—we might be looking at a Hall of Famer.

Granted, a lot has to go right for this string of hypotheticals to actualize. Injuries happen. Age rears its ugly head. For reasons that are difficult to place, effective players cease to be effective. But Bosh is in a position where he could absolutely end up in Springfield.

I'm not convinced he belongs there, but I'm telling you there's a chance.