Breaking Down Cameron Wake's Future with the Dolphins
As the Miami Dolphins’ season is winding down and playoff hopes are all but dashed, it’s time to evaluate the future of players who have significant salaries. Superstar defensive end Cameron Wake is the biggest name and most productive Dolphins player on the roster, but he’s been nearly invisible the last month of the season.
If the Dolphins end up cleaning out their coaching staff and front office, the new regime will need to decide whether to retool the roster or rebuild it. A retooling is probably what is necessary, as Miami has good talent despite some weaker positions. But, if the new decision-makers want to clean out a lot of cap space and overhaul the roster, a guy like Wake has trade value.
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To see whether Miami should even entertain moving the face of its franchise, we’re going to look at how Wake wins, why he’s been invisible the last month and how the Dolphins’ cap situation will change through various options they have with Wake.
Where He Wins
Wake’s NFL accomplishments for being an undrafted free agent who didn’t get a real shot in the NFL until 27 years old are simply incredible. His 61 career sacks rank 22nd in the league among active players, but again, he’s only in his sixth season.
How Wake has averaged 10 sacks a season is easy to see when we go all the way back to his 2005 NFL combine performance. Coming out of Penn State, Wake ranked in the top 67 percent of the four most important benchmarks for edge pass-rushers, according to Mockdraftable. His 4.65 40-yard dash, 45.5” vertical jump, 130” broad jump and 4.13 20-yard shuttle show that Wake is an elite athlete.
The key to Wake’s pure pass-rushing dominance is his ability to get off the line with a tremendous burst. Throughout Wake’s career, he’s been incredibly disruptive because as soon as the ball is snapped, he’s already working to get around the offensive tackle. See the screenshot below for a good example.
Wake also has the ability to bend the edge around tackles due to his hip flexibility and ankle flexion. When he turns the corner against a tackle, his body is nearly diagonal, which is also an impressive show of balance. He’s like a real-life Stretch Armstrong.
Prior to 2014, Wake was also able to hold his own against the run, as he uses leverage and pure power to bull rush opposing tackles. Wake has great ball awareness, as he keeps his eyes alert to where the ball is heading, and he is able to adjust if the ball-carrier approaches his side of the field. In other words, he sets the edge well.
With the ability to win in various ways, Wake has been one of the best 4-3 defensive ends in the league since he joined the Dolphins. Even with his recent struggles, Wake is still the highest-graded 4-3 end in the NFL by Pro Football Focus (subscription required), thanks to his pass-rushing production in the first 10 weeks of the season.
At age 32, he’s accounted for 32 quarterback hurries and 22 solo run stops this year, per PFF. He’s shown that he’s one of the premier edge players in the league with his combination of athleticism and football intelligence. That being said, it’s time to see why he’s gone missing in the last month or so of the 2014 season.
Why He’s Struggling Lately
After a blistering start to the 2014 season, Cameron Wake has fallen off the proverbial cliff since the Dolphins played the Denver Broncos. After PFF graded Wake negatively just once before Week 12, he’s earned negative grades in three of the last four weeks. More importantly, his film and eye test have been much worse than his play earlier in the season.
Wake was routinely in the correct position as a run defender until the entire defense fell apart a month ago. Opposing offenses would be stuck between a rock and a hard place because with Wake on one side and Olivier Vernon on the other, Miami was able to dominate in the trenches.
But as Wake has stopped being effective, the entire unit has followed suit.
After reviewing each snap of the previous four games, it’s impossible to say there is just one reason for Wake’s struggles. He was the victim of two cheap shots, once against the Broncos and the other coming in the New York Jets game, but Wake was being dominated by Broncos right tackle Louis Vasquez long before the lower-body injury occurred.
Although the thought of an injury to Wake certainly has some legs to it, Wake hasn’t appeared on the Dolphins’ official injury list, on which the NFL requires teams to disclose any type of injury. That means his regression cannot simply be an ailment keeping him from playing well.
An injury may not be present, but Wake does look tired and is lacking the same speed that we are used to seeing out of him. Compared to the earlier screenshots that illustrate how well Wake explodes when the ball is snapped, look at the next screenshot of Wake’s latest game against the New England Patriots.
Instead of being the first man in the backfield, Wake looks sluggish and average off the snap. He’s unable to get proper leverage because he can’t beat the tackle to the edge of the pocket, meaning he’s much easier to handle and contain. This has been consistent in the second half of the season and has gotten progressively worse.
Without his burst, Wake is not the technician he needs to be to beat NFL-caliber tackles. He relies on his immense physical gifts, which is fine when he is 100 percent because he’s a freak athlete among peers who are already considered freak athletes.
Whether he’s tired or is dealing with some nagging injuries, Wake hasn’t looked like the same player he usually is, and opposing offenses have taken advantage. Considering that Wake has been elite for so long, it’s borderline shocking to see him be blocked by a single player for the majority of snaps, but that’s the reality of who he has been the last month.
Lacking the burst and ability to translate his speed into power as well as he normally does, Wake has been pancaked numerous times every game. Take a look at the next screenshot, where we see Wake being shoved and stood up by Vasquez, clearing a path for a sizable run for the Broncos.
Wake’s assignments have changed slightly in recent weeks in addition to his athleticism being zapped. When a tight end is lined up next to the right tackle, Wake often works to jam him as he releases from the line of scrimmage. This is likely done to help the decimated linebacker core play better in coverage.
The issue with defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle’s strategy is that he’s neutralizing his best pass-rusher for an entire play, while only helping the linebackers for about a second, as Wake shoves the tight end.
Coming off his jam, Wake has to try and figure out a way to go through or around the tackle, but in all likelihood, there is little he can do to reach the quarterback, since the tackle has already had a chance to get set into position.
Cap Ramifications
Looking at how Wake has declined so sharply for uncertain reasons, Miami may decide to move him to help the team clear out cap space and rebuild the roster. That wouldn’t be my recommendation, as Wake showed for 10 weeks that he can still be a premier player, but it’s a possibility worth exploring if another team offers a first- or second-round pick for him.
As currently structured, Wake stands to count as $9.7 million against the cap next season, but the Dolphins can move him without incurring any dead money, according to Over the Cap. The $8.2 million is base salary, while $1.4 million is his prorated signing bonus. Miami would save nearly $6 million by trading or releasing Wake.
If Miami wants to keep Wake but lower his cap number, a restructure of his deal makes a lot of sense. Usually a restructure is a bad long-term move, as it shifts a portion of salary into a signing bonus over the length of the deal. With Wake becoming a free agent after 2016, a restructure is a low-impact move that can help Miami clear out around $3 million in space this offseason, per Over the Cap’s calculator tool.
Conclusion
If the Dolphins were to decide that Wake is clearly past his prime and that the last month is an indicator of what he will become when his athleticism disappears, they would be wise to trade him and capitalize on his trade value. The organization has much more firsthand knowledge than we do, especially on injuries.
Based off the first 10 weeks of the season, even considering trading Wake is asinine. He’s affordable, the face of the franchise and also an elite player. If he’s now the player of the last four games, then change should be considered if the price is right. As stated earlier, anything less than a second-round pick shouldn’t be entertained.
Moving a player like Wake could potentially harm the Dolphins’ ability to land top-tier free agents in the future, since he’s been loyal to the franchise and took a team-friendly deal to stay. Wake isn’t a vocal leader, but he’s one of the few in the locker room who has had to fight to earn his keep in the league.
Whether it’s Dennis Hickey or someone else as the Dolphins’ general manager next season, Miami has to figure out why Wake’s production has greatly dropped recently. It appears he’s tired or being slowed by an injury, but if he’s only effective as a part-time player at this point in his career, it may be time to move on.
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Ian Wharton is a Miami Dolphins Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, contributor for Optimum Scouting and analyst for eDraft.
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