Colts Clinch Division, but Offensive Shortcomings Spell Trouble for Playoffs

The Indianapolis Colts' 17-10 win over Houston was emblematic of the last three seasons. Questionable (or worse, AFC South-quality) opponent? Check. Unconvincing win? Check. Game that makes you wonder why Indianapolis hasn't surrounded quarterback Andrew Luck with enough of a supporting cast? Check and mate. 

One change to the pattern that has occurred over the past month: the Colts have been winning with defense. Indianapolis has allowed only 16 points per game over its last four contests. One of those opponents, the Cleveland Browns, got to 24 points mainly via special teams and interception return touchdowns.

When cornerback Vontae Davis has played, he's proven himself as an All-Pro candidate. And while the Colts don't have any other tremendous individual performers, they play tight man-to-man defense and create just enough pressure to survive.

"

#Colts Pagano: Defense was phenomenal, outstanding, closed it out with interception, fourth-down stop, fake punt was huge.

— Conrad Brunner (@1070Bruno) December 14, 2014"

But the offense has struggled over the last month. Nobody can blame the Colts offensive line for allowing two sacks to Texans lineman J.J. Watt—that's just what Watt does—but the shuffling at right guard and center has yet to unearth good candidates for those positions.

Center Jonotthan Harrison continues to make key mistakes with penalties and poor snaps, guard Hugh Thornton and swingman Joe Reitz both sat another game with injuries and former starter A.Q. Shipley hasn't played over Lance Louis because…well, nobody actually knows why.

Meanwhile, injuries to right tackle Gosder Cherilus (shoulder) and wideout Reggie Wayne (torn triceps) have kept the Colts from playing at full strength. Wayne has been a shadow of himself over the past few months, and the Colts haven't figured out a good backup plan to throwing at him.

Tight end Coby Fleener has been a workload sponge, but he still drops a ton of passes and has problems making contested catches. Fellow tight end Dwayne Allen has been in and out of the lineup, and when he's been in, he's asked to stay back and block too often.

Running back Ahmad Bradshaw is done for the season—he was leading all running backs in receiving defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders, before his season was cut short by a broken ankle—and backup Dan Herron hasn't been able to replace him there. The Colts seem completely uninterested in integrating rookie wideout Donte Moncrief into the short game, which is baffling. 

Week/Opponent	Total DVOA	Offensive DVOA	Defensive DVOA	Score
Week 11 (vs. NE)	-46.8%	-27.4%	26.2%	L 42-20
Week 12 (vs. JAX)	24.5%	-29.9%	-47.5%	W 23-3
Week 13 (vs. WAS)	38.4%	28.8%	-3.9%	W 49-27
Week 14 (@ CLE)	8.4%	-11.1%	-27.0%	W 25-24
Week 15 (vs. HOU)	n/a	n/a	n/a	W 17-10

This all adds up to create as dysfunctional of an offense as you can have when it's being run by one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The Colts struggled to deal with Houston's zone pressure looks, and as a result, Luck donated the only touchdown Houston scored all game on a pick-six thrown right at safety Kendrick Lewis. 

But this game wasn't an outlier—the Colts offense has identity issues right now. It's struggling because the coaching staff is trying to dictate roles to players who can't fill them.

Wayne isn't 2013 Reggie Wayne. Running back Trent Richardson isn't the bell-cow power back they thought he'd be when they traded for him. The offensive line isn't good enough for Luck to drop back and risk 15 deep looks a game without taking a few sacks in trade.

None of this is a death sentence for the Colts' Super Bowl chances. Luck and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton proved against the Chiefs last year that they can create an insane comeback with baling wire, some spit, T.Y. Hilton and a paper clip. 

It's just that the Colts are stubborn—stubborn without reason. They won't go back to what works until they are forced off their ideal game plan. They haven't really had reason to do this over the past few weeks, because the defense hasn't created the game script necessary for that to happen. 

But the Colts should spend these final two weeks of the season, especially the season-ender against the Titans, experimenting with what they have and removing Richardson and Wayne as focal points of their offense. Let's see what Moncrief can do as a centerpiece of the passing game. Let's see Allen run more routes. Let's see who the best five offensive linemen are rather than who the Colts hope will be the best.

If we've learned anything about the Colts over the past three years, it's that they will only figure that out once they are trailing 24-10 at halftime. 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.