The Biggest Storylines to Watch in Boxing's Welterweight Division
The best division in all of boxing is the 147-pound welterweight division.
A few other divisions could make a decent argument, but for me it's not even close. No other division can match the star power at the top of the welterweight division, but it's also beyond compare with great depth.
The top four fighters on ESPN's top 10 pound-for-pound list are all from the welterweight division; the most any other division has is two by the middleweights.
Going past just the top four guys at welterweight, the rest of the boxers on ESPN's top 10 ranking for the division are all really good fighters who have either already held a belt before or are widely considered a rising star as with the case of Keith Thurman.
Not surprisingly, the best weight division also has some of the most intriguing storylines swirling around with some big names involved. Here are five hot storylines to watch as we end the 2014 boxing calendar and transition into what is shaping up to be a great early start to the 2015 boxing calendar.
Next Opponent for Floyd Mayweather
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Obviously everyone wants to see Floyd Mayweather Jr. fight Manny Pacquiao, but if that fight falls through who will he turn to next?
My guess is it will be someone from the welterweight division who's fighting on the two loaded December 13 cards on Showtime and HBO.
A fight against Keith Thurman or Timothy Bradley would be my top choices in terms of skill and having a legit chance to win, but Thurman doesn't have many significant wins on his resume, so he's a long shot at best to land the match and Bradley shares the same roadblocks as Pacquiao being a Top Rank fighter.
The more likely scenario for Mayweather will be to fight the winner of Devon Alexander vs. Amir Khan.
Neither fighter would likely excite the average fan as a can't-miss opponent. But both guys would be on the same level as other recent Mayweather opponents like Robert Guerrero and Marcos Maidana as former world champions and top-10 fighters in their division.
A match against either fighter would almost assuredly come in under one million pay-per-view buys—only the match against Canelo Alvarez has topped that mark out of his four fights with Showtime—but if Mayweather can't make a match with Pacquiao, there aren't many better available options.
What's Next for Timothy Bradley?
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Assuming Timothy Bradley gets by Diego Chaves this weekend, who could be up next for the former welterweight champion in 2015? Most of the top dogs at 147 pounds are signed with Al Haymon, which takes them off the table before negotiations can even begin for a possible fight with Bradley.
Assuming Bradley's promoter, Top Rank, and Haymon can't work things out, potential matches against Floyd Mayweather, Marcos Maidana, Keith Thurman, Shawn Porter, Devon Alexander and Robert Guerrero are all DOA.
You should also strike off the names Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez because I don't think anyone has any interest in seeing another chapter in those books. With all of those names eliminated, the only name that remains on ESPN's top 10 ranking for the welterweight division is Kell Brook.
A Bradley vs. Brook match would be exciting, but would Bradley be willing to fight him overseas if Brook doesn't want to leave England to defend his title? I think Bradley is the better boxer, but it has proved difficult in the past for a foreigner to win a decision in Europe.
If a match against Brook doesn't happen, the next logical choice would be for Bradley to fight the winner of the January fight between Brandon Rios and Mike Alvarado.
Until the cold war between Top Rank and Haymon ends, Bradley will struggle to make matches against other top opponents. The only Top Rank fights for Bradley that would excite me at this point would be a match against Terence Crawford or a rematch against Ruslan Provodnikov.
If Not Mayweather, Who's Next for Manny Pacquiao?
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There appears to be more momentum towards making a mega-fight between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao now than anytime since 2009. Will it happen? My guess is still probably not because many of the same roadblocks that prevented the fight in 2009 remain in the way today.
So if it doesn't happen, where will Pacquiao turn? Two of his last three opponents—Brandon Rios and Chris Algieri—were unworthy opponents and predictably got dominated in the match. Unfortunately for the second biggest pay-per-view draw in the sport, there aren't many attractive options.
Like I mentioned on the last page with Timothy Bradley, the obstacle of Al Haymon takes many potentially lucrative matches off the table before negotiations can even begin. Not only does Pacquiao's promoter refuse to work with Haymon, but Pacquiao is exclusive to HBO, who also refuses to work with the notorious "adviser."
If Pacquiao and his team can't cut through the dirt and grime of boxing politics today to make a fight with Mayweather or any other Haymon client, then his best option will likely be to drop down to junior welterweight, which has been talked about many times recently.
Despite holding a belt at 147 pounds, Pacquiao often comes into his matches below the weight limit and actually fought Algieri at a catchweight of 144 pounds in their fight last month.
If he does drop down to 140 pounds, there should be a few interesting options like Terence Crawford and Ruslan Provodnikov. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that a fight with Mayweather finally happens—five years late—but if it doesn't, a match against Provodnikov or Crawford would be nice alternatives.
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What's at Stake for Brandon Rios vs. Mike Alvarado III?
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Both fighters have everything to gain and also everything to lose in the rubber match of their classic trilogy. The previous two fights were at 140 pounds, but the third match will take place at the welterweight limit of 147 pounds.
Mike Alvarado has lost two fights in a row while Brandon Rios hasn't tasted victory since his 2012 TKO win over Alvarado, excluding a sloppy and controversial win over Diego Chaves by disqualification. The losing fighter in the match will have a hard time digging their way out of the hole they've created in their career.
What's in store for the winner? Certainly not a PPV fight against Manny Pacquiao, but Timothy Bradley will need an opponent next spring or summer since probably no one wants to see him in a rematch with Pacquiao or Juan Manuel Marquez.
Both Alvarado and Rios would be large underdogs against Bradley, but they could at least make an entertaining fight for TV with their all-action, offense-first styles—similar to what made the Bradley fight against Ruslan Provodnikov so entertaining.
Don't think anyone wants to see a rematch between Alvarado and Provodnikov, but if Rios defeats Alvarado then a match against Provodnikov would also make sense as an all-action Boxing After Dark card sometime in 2015.
When Will Juan Manuel Marquez Return?
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As older fighters tend to do, future Hall of Famer Juan Manuel Marquez was picky in 2014 when it came to choosing his matches and decided to only have one fight this year, a dominant win over Mike Alvarado in May.
That win over Alvarado made Marquez the mandatory challenger for the welterweight belt held by Manny Pacquiao, but a fifth fight between the rivals wasn't made for the fall because Marquez reportedly "priced himself out" of the fight.
Regardless if it's Pacquiao or any other belt-holder at 147 pounds, winning a title in a fifth weight division is something that Marquez has expressed interest in before. If his team still isn't able to come to terms with Pacquiao, the only choice left would be to head overseas for a match against Kell Brook.
Besides Brook and Pacquiao, the other titleholder at welterweight is, of course, Floyd Mayweather, but it's highly doubtful anyone has any interest in seeing that rematch, not to mention the obvious promotional roadblocks that would make the fight difficult to schedule.
That leaves Brook as the most likely option for Marquez. Brook's promoter Eddie Hearn has expressed interest in making the fight for March 2015.
"I’d love to make Brook-Márquez in the spring. I've reached out to Márquez' team, he's looking to win world title in five different weights and we're willing to give him the shot. It's a massive fight, Márquez is a huge name in world boxing.
I've spoken to HBO and it’s a certainly a fight they would be interested in.
"
Marquez would certainly present a much tougher test for Brook than the opponent—Shawn Porter—he won his title over. That match would probably be on PPV in England and generate a ton of money; hope it happens.
Follow me on Twitter for more opinion on boxing and live scoring of big fights: @sackedbybmac
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