Duke Wing Justise Winslow Emerging as a Potential Top-5 NBA Draft Pick

Relative to last June's draft, the projected 2015 field might not offer the same caliber of star power or depth. Outside the consensus top three—Duke center Jahlil Okafor, Kentucky center Karl-Anthony Towns and point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who could be finishing up his time in China soon—the "wow" factor drops off significantly.

This is a year when the "safe" label could actually help a lottery pick's stock.

Duke freshman Justise Winslow has emerged as one of the safest yet potentially most rewarding prospects in the country. He entered the season with a reputation as a high-energy, do-it-all, two-way wing, and he's lived up to the billing. 

Through eight games, his numbers won't blow you away—12 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 45.6 percent shooting—but the impact he's had has been immeasurable early on.

Winslow's value also stems from his defense and motor. That was most recently evident in Duke's 10-point win over Wisconsin on Dec. 3. You didn't hear Winslow's name much, but he was there, making plays that mostly never made the final box score.

Winslow has been making a name for himself at the defensive end for years now, from the Under-17 World Championships in 2012 to this past summer as a starter for the Under-18 FIBA Americas team that took gold in Colorado Springs. 

He plays an aggressive style of pressure defense. And he's been a hound so far on the ball, consistently taking away or containing an opposing ball-handler's dribble.

At 6'6", 225 pounds, Winslow packs an overwhelming punch of athleticism, quickness and strength. He certainly looks the part of an NBA wing. 

He's a diver, a chaser, a jump-into-the-stands type of hustler.

Winslow has minimal bust potential. An NBA general manager is getting a super athlete and versatile perimeter defender. 

He reminds me a bit of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist when he was at Kentucky and Victor Oladipo at Indiana—guys who climbed up draft boards and won over scouts with their defense, energy and explosiveness, along with offensive flashes that hint at room for growth down the road. 

Offensively, Winslow looks a bit raw, but in doses, he's flashed encouraging ball skills as an attacker and outside shooter.

The most eye-opening development so far has been his jumper. He's hit at least one three-pointer in every game now while shooting 38.5 percent from downtown. 

And Winslow's mechanics look clean. Even if his percentage falls off over the course of the season, you get the impression that he can eventually evolve into a legitimate catch-and-shoot threat. 

At this stage, Winslow is still clearly at his best in the open floor, where he can really fly in transition and finish on the move.

Against a set half-court defense, though, he's limited as a one-on-one scorer. Winslow is dangerous attacking open lanes—just not creating them off the bounce. That's partly why he ended up with just six shot attempts against Wisconsin. And that's why his scoring numbers will likely fluctuate as the season rolls along. 

But Winslow's all-around versatility gives him a little extra cushion and margin for error. For Duke, he doesn't necessarily need to score to contribute.

The idea is that the same will hold true at the NBA level—even if his offensive game never comes around, he'll always have defense and intangibles to fall back on. 

"Whatever we need. Block out, block a shot, knock down a shot. Get in the post, feed the post. I just try to do it all," Winslow told ESPN's Eamonn Brennan. 

Still, at just 18 years old, I'm willing to bet the offensive flashes, even if sporadic, will ultimately look convincing enough to suggest there's more to come with NBA coaching and time, whether it's a slash from the wing:

Or a sweet spot-up jumper:

The promising vibes he's given off have made it easy for evaluators to overlook his current flaws and (potentially) temporary weaknesses, which stem from his youth and lack of polish one can always add with practice.  

At this point, I'd say the entry door into the top-three tier has been sealed off to Okafor, Towns and Mudiay. But that No. 4 spot should be up for grabs on everybody's draft board, and Winslow's chances of grabbing it are as good as anyone's. 

Look for the buzz around Winslow to build, along with his image as a low-risk, high-reward option. That image could hold a lot of weight in a draft without obvious answers to choose from.