Erislandy Lara vs. Ishe Smith: Preview and Prediction for Upcoming Bout
On Saturday night in San Antonio, Texas, Erislandy Lara faces Ishe Smith in a showdown of top-rated light middleweight fighters.
The WBA is sanctioning this as a world title fight, but the belt Lara holds is a "regular" title. Floyd Mayweather Jr. is officially the "super" WBA light middleweight champion.
I personally find it embarrassing to have an alphabet-soup organization ask me to pretend that a particular fighter is a"world champion" when I already know who their real world champion is.
So as far as I am concerned, this is no title fight at all. It is, however, a very relevant fight in the 154-pound division. There's no question Lara and Smith are two of the best fighters in the weight class.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Erislandy Lara | Ishe Smith |
| Record: | 19-2-2, 12 KOs | 26-6, 12 KOs |
| Height: | 5'9" | 5'10" |
| Reach: | 75" | 71" |
| Weight: | 154 lbs | 154 lbs |
| Age: | 31 | 36 |
| Stance: | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Houston, Texas | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Rounds: | 132 | 192 |
Smith is an inch taller than Lara, but Lara's outstanding 75-inch reach gives him a four-inch edge over Smith. Lara is younger by five years as well.
Lara lives in Houston now but is a Cuban native and competed for their legendary amateur team. Smith is the first fighter ever born in Las Vegas to hold a world title.
Main Storyline
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Erislandy Lara has never been cleanly beaten in his professional career. He lost a majority decision to Paul Williams in 2011 that was one of the worst decisions in recent years.
Last July, Lara faced Saul Alvarez on pay-per-view in one of the year's most anticipated fights. I had Lara winning that fight 115-113, but Lara gave away entire rounds due to lack of activity, so I can't complain about anybody scoring it the other way.
I will say that judge Levi Maritnez, who gave the bout to Canelo 117-111, had to have filled out at least parts of his card in his hotel room the night before.
Even if you think Lara deserved to win that fight, it's hard to debate that his cautious approach to Alvarez left a bad taste in the mouths of many paying fans. I'm not sure Ishe Smith is the kind of opponent who will provide him the opportunity to thrill the crowd.
Like Lara, Smith is a defense-oriented technician. If you are a purist who enjoys very good technical fighting, this is an interesting matchup. I think it's a compelling fight.
In February 2013, Smith won the IBF world title from Cornelius Bundrage by majority decision. He dropped it by split decision to Carlos Molina in his first defense, in September 2013.
Now 36, Smith is facing probably the best opponent of his career. A win here will push him near the top of the 154-pound rankings.
Strengths
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Lara is an outstanding technical boxer. He controls range expertly and usually does well dictating the pace of a fight. His southpaw stance makes him very tricky for most opponents.
He's an extremely accurate puncher, with good power in both hands.
Smith is a very good defensive fighter. He is an old-school boxer who knows how to protect himself in the ring.
Smith is a veteran fighter and an intelligent professional. He prepares well for a big fight, both mentally and physically.
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Weaknesses
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Lara has a tendency to be what old-timers used to call "too cute." He puts so much focus on finessing his opponent's offense that he sometimes neglects his own. This definitely cost him the fight against Alvarez in July.
Smith lacks the kind of explosive athleticism that most boxing stars have. His lack of elite power forces him to fight with little margin for error.
Lara Will Win If...
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Everything Erislandy Lara does is built off his sly use of the lead hand. He uses his jab as both a range-finder and as a tool for opening up his opponent's guard to land his straight left.
Lara's best combination is a jab-straight left-jab. He throws the left with great accuracy and moves back out of range quickly after landing it. If he can work this gambit effectively again and again against Smith, he should have little problem winning the fight.
But Smith is one of the better defensive fighters Lara has faced. He leaves minimal openings and is very good at taking away space or creating his own.
Lara is going to have to exploit his reach by dictating the pace behind his jab. He needs to threaten Smith with the lead right as Smith moves into range and then sting him with the straight left.
But I also think he needs to reset and attack again more quickly than he did against Alvarez. A lack of offense cost Lara that fight on two of three cards.
Still, Lara was able to find a lot of holes to land on against Alvarez when the latter let his hands go. Smith is going to be far more stingy in presenting opportunities to score, so Lara has to be ready to throw more punches.
Smith Will Win If...
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To win this fight, Ishe Smith is going to have to deal with Erislandy Lara's jab very carefully. If he tries to roll underneath it, slipping to his right, it's going to bring him directly into range for Lara's dangerous left.
Smith has to be cautious about parrying Lara's jab, because the Cuban excels at exploiting it. He'll start feeding him a feint and clocking him over the top when he reaches to parry.
The best way for Smith to deal with Lara's jab is to get off first with his own. He should look to jab into range, carefully placing his own lead left foot to the outside of Lara's lead right foot. This will put him into position to score with his own straight right hand.
Jabbing into range and winning the battle of foot position are two very basic things, but without them Smith doesn't have a prayer. If he can succeed at those two things he will be able to connect with some regularity with his straight right.
And if he can land the straight right, he's got a chance to win. Off the straight right, he should look to come to the body with a lead hook. Lara employs outstanding movement, so Smith wants to bang at his torso, attempting to slow him down.
Lara's in-and-out movement makes him very disruptive, but if Smith can manage to time his attacks and continue to drive Lara backward as he is moving out, he should be able to land on the Cuban's body.
Prediction
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Erislandy Lara should win this fight. He's the better athlete and has better boxing skills.
Ishe Smith is an experienced veteran with a lot of ring intelligence. I expect to see him do all the little things necessary to stick around and give himself a shot to win. But I'll pick talent over intangibles nine times out of 10.
I think Smith is too shrewd defensively to get knocked out here, but I see Lara taking a relatively one-sided decision similar to the one he captured against Austin Trout last year. I think it ends up about eight rounds to four in Lara's favor.
It's hard for me to really guess what happens next for Lara, though. As I already noted, I thought he deserved to win against Alvarez in July and feel that a fight that close warrants a rematch.
But there would be no excitement for that at all. I found Alvarez-Lara to be suspenseful, but it was generally panned. And I can understand why, as it did lack action.
Lara is a dangerous opponent, and not one who brings a lot to the table in terms of attracting paying fans. That puts him in an extremely tough position for getting meaningful fights. I think he'd be one of the toughest possible fights for Floyd Mayweather, but there's no way that's going to happen.
Lara will win Saturday and keep winning in the future. But to become a true star, he's going to need to become a more exciting offensive fighter.
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