Formula One Season Analysis: It's Lonely at the Top for Ferrari...for Now

It probably isn't fun being Ron Dennis right now. Five races into the 2008 season, we have had four Ferrari wins, two Ferrari one-two's and one Ferrari one-three finish—McLaren has managed at best one driver on the podium at a time—giving the red team 63 out of a maximum 90 points possible.

Trailing by 21 points in the constructor's championship, it is high time McLaren staged their comeback. There is talk of just that, as Dennis remains cautiously optimistic about the next two races—Monaco and Canada.

And with reason—both races went well for McLaren last season, and the silver arrows have undoubtedly the best team record in Monaco, winning five. of the last 10 races there. Meanwhile, Ferrari have not won on the streets of the Principato since 2001.

As far as the drivers are concerned, Hamilton loves the circuit—despite alleged team orders he gave Alonso quite the run for his money last year. Massa’s performance has been relatively quiet (third in 2007, ninth in 2006).

Raikkonen’s history at Monaco has loads of ups (won in 2005, drove a solid race from 16th on the grid to eighth last season), and downs (he did not finish the 2004 and 2006 races). As Martin Whitmarsh put it: “The team has a great history there [Monaco] and we are naturally looking to add to that this summer.”

As for Canada, it is a special circuit for Hamilton, who won his first Formula Onw Grand Prix there last year. Even though Ferrari has a string track record in Canada, they have failed to show that in the last couple of seasons.

All in all, McLaren and Lewis Hamilton desperately need a win in Monaco and possibly in Canada as well to keep their championship challenge alive. The second leg of the European races—especially France, Britain, and Belgium—seem to favour Ferrari. There was a 32-second gap between the Ferraris and the closest McLaren in last year’s French Grand Prix.

The Spanish Grand Prix in 2007 was exactly a year ago (13/05). When the chequered flag went down, McLaren was in the lead of the constructors championship with nine points ahead of Ferrari—58 to 49 points, respectively.

Even if we have a McLaren one-two finish in Monaco and Ferrari do not score any points, the red team will still be ahead by three points. However, given the low likelihood of the above scenario, McLaren must be ready to give their heart and soul into the next few Grand Prix, if they are to have any chance of winning this year’s constructor’s championship.

In a sport like Formula One, I generally avoid making predictions. A drop of rain or simply being in the wrong part of the racetrack at the wrong time, can change the outcome of a whole race.

On the other hand, I do believe it is highly likely that Lewis Hamilton is the odds-on favourite to win the next two Grand Prix. How this will affect his championship standing depends only on where the red cars finish.

The bad news for Hamilton, and McLaren, is that Ferrari is also very likely to finish these two races better than they did last year—a mere eighth for Raikkonen in Monaco, and a disqualification for Massa in Canada.